THE STATE OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN PERU

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 000097 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/28 TAGS: PGOV PREL PE SUBJECT: THE STATE OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN PERU REF: 09 LIMA 1561; 09 LIMA 1053; 09 LIMA 899 DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D ¶1. (C) Summary. ... id: 246088 date: 1/28/2010 20:49 refid: 10LIMA97 origin: Embassy Lima classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: 09LIMA1053|09LIMA1561|09LIMA899 header: VZCZCXYZ0000 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHPE #0097/01 0282049 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 282049Z JAN 10 FM AMEMBASSY LIMA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0621 INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 000097 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/28 TAGS: PGOV PREL PE SUBJECT: THE STATE OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN PERU REF: 09 LIMA 1561; 09 LIMA 1053; 09 LIMA 899 DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D ¶1. (C) Summary. In Peru's consolidating democracy, established political parties will participate in the 2010 regional elections and 2011 national elections as weak, largely personality-based organizations that represent narrow constituencies. The ruling APRA party is the most fully structured, with a solid 20% base of support mostly concentrated along the coast, but its approach to 2011 is ambiguous given that President Garcia cannot run. Lourdes Flores' PPC is heavily Lima-centric, while the Nationalist Party (PNP) has expanding regional structures but remains the electoral vehicle of Ollanta Humala. Other smaller parties are either eroded or only partially developed political structures built around personalities such as former President Fujimori. The weakness of political parties means that regional movements, outsider candidates and potential anti-system elements remain well-placed to fill the vacuum and could surge as genuine electoral alternatives. End Summary. Weak Parties Lack National Presence ¶2. (C) As Peru's still-consolidating democracy gears up for another electoral season (local and regional elections are scheduled for October of this year, national elections for April of 2011),general institutional fragility and ineffectiveness are acutely reflected in the country's established political parties. Weak and often personality-based, parties represent narrow constituencies, mostly in urban areas, rather than broad cross-sections of society. Because parties have been unable to articulate a national vision, there are virtually no broad-based political movements or coalitions with extensive popular support nation-wide. In addition, parties are often reluctant to open themselves up to outside participation and renovate their leadership with new blood; as a result, they have among the lowest levels of citizen confidence among all democratic institutions. According to the 2008 Americas Barometer poll, only 20% of Peruvians identified with a party - down from 30% in 2006. This means that 80% of electorate is up for grabs in the next election, without an identified mechanism to channel their interests, proposals, or complaints to the government. It also leaves the great majority of voters potentially open to the appeal of the "outsider" candidate - a fresh face unconnected to any established party who articulates frustration with the current political system and its ineffective or corrupt institutions. ¶3. (C) Part of the disenchantment with parties stems from a larger frustration with successive governments perceived as unable or unwilling to resolve Peru's persistent structural problems, such as inequality, poverty and unemployment, in an (as yet) politically decisive way. In this sense, because parties form governments and legislatures, they have limited credibility as actors capable of addressing the population's needs. Paradoxically, despite declining popular support, the number of parties in Peru is increasing: 26 parties are currently registered in this country of 28 million, with more on the path to registration. This bewildering array of options makes it even more difficult for the average citizen to distinguish among parties and what they offer. As one local analyst put it, parties in Peru display symptoms of autism: they repeat the same messages over and over, are incapable of recognizing the valid participation of others, and are largely focused on internal concerns. ¶4. (C) Outside Lima and other major population centers, national parties that link together Peru's diverse regions are essentially absent, making it difficult to develop consensus and compromise on national policies and legislation. While national party figures travel to the regions to build party structures and identify candidates for local office, they are usually unfamiliar with the key local issues and unable to judge and select appropriate leaders with potential national projection. As a result, in 2006, regional movements representing often narrow local platforms and visions captured 21 of 25 regional presidencies. While these regional movements vary in effectiveness and popular support, they have no single political vision or program binding them to one another or to a national political vision, which has generated a highly fragmented and fractured political environment at the national level. Several regional leaders, such as Mayor of Trujillo Cesar Acuna and President of San Martin Cesar Villanueva, are trying to project a national vision from a regional base in the run-up to the upcoming elections. Structured Parties Few ¶5. (C) The ruling APRA (American Popular Revolutionary Alliance) party is the most fully structured in the country, with a solid 20% of core supporters among the electorate largely concentrated in the coastal areas. Many observers describe the APRA as the only true political party in Peru, alone in having a serious party machinery capable of mobilizing its mass membership during electoral and non-electoral periods, and known for the strict discipline of its members of Congress and rank and file - once a decision at the top level has been made. The APRA's approach to upcoming elections remains ill-defined, however, largely because President Alan Garcia is constitutionally barred from running in 2011 and widely reported to be contemplating a third run in 2016. To many observers, this calculation means that Garcia seeks to maintain control of the party in the interim and could choose to do so by throwing his support to a non-APRA party presidential candidate in 2011. Nevertheless, APRA stalwarts, including former PM Jorge Del Castillo, have publicly stated their interest in becoming the party's candidate for 2011. ¶6. (C) The Partido Popular Cristiano (PPC),arguably Peru's second most structured party, has little presence outside Lima. Many observers believe this - and its image as mostly representing Peru's upper classes - explains why PPC president and past presidential candidate, Lourdes Flores, has fallen short in several successive national elections. According to media and insider reports, Flores is currently contemplating running for Mayor of Lima and relinquishing her national political aspirations - for now. By contrast, the PNP is the only national party with a significant network in Peru's impoverished rural communities (with the possible exception of the fujimoristas),and many analysts say that its quiet work in strengthening and expanding existing structures has continued over the past three years. That said, the PNP is also seen as the personal electoral vehicle of former presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, it is reportedly tightly controlled by Humala's wife and advisor Nadine Herrera, and it has sought to tighten links with radical groups ( ref A),which has caused serious internal tensions and a number of defections in past months. High Profile Leaders Lack Solid Party Structures ¶7. (C) Other smaller parties are either eroded or not fully-developed political structures built around personalities. The current polling leaders generally fall under this category: -- Likely candidate Luis CastaC1eda has a high approval rating and tops most recent polling thanks to his performance as mayor of Lima, but his party, National Solidarity (Solidaridad Nacional), has little national reach. He has sought to overcome this with targeted social works - such as building "Solidarity Hospitals" - in poor areas throughout the country -- Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori, who often places second in the polls behind CastaC1eda, derives her popularity almost exclusively from her father, former President Alberto Fujimori (currently imprisoned on human rights, corruption and other charges.) Keiko's nascent political movement, Force 2011 (Fuerza 2011),is made up of a succession of fujimorista "parties" with little internal structure or organization but a solid base of support in middle and lower class areas that formed the backbone of former President Fujimori's political strength. -- Former President and possible 2011 candidate Alejandro Toledo's party, Peru Possible (Peru Posible) holds a smattering of elected offices outside Lima but revolves mostly around Toledo's (long distance, for now) leadership. Popular Action (AcciC3n Popular),a traditional party that had the presidency twice in modern Peruvian history, has faded in recent years and lacks a presidential candidate with broad name recognition. -- Other possible contenders - including Cajamarca environmental activist and former priest Marco Arana, retired Commander of the Army General Edwin Donayre, former PM and President of Lambayeque region Yehude Simon and former PM and Finance Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski - have some degree of name recognition but little party structure to speak of. The quintessence of the party-less presidential aspirant, at this juncture, may be polemic author/talk show host Jaime Bayly, whose rumored candidacy has fueled much media commentary in recent days, some of it serious. Comment: With Weak Parties, Outsiders Fill the Gap ¶8. (C) With Peru poised to enter another electoral cycle in 2010-2011, the weakened state of political parties means that regional movements, outsider candidates and potential anti-system elements remain well-placed to fill the vacuum and surge as genuine electoral alternatives. While the absence of established national parties with nationwide constituencies need not lead inexorably to the selection of an "outsider" or anti-system candidate, it would seem to make such a choice more likely. A politician keenly attuned to the spirit of the times, even President Garcia recently stated that the next APRA candidate would be an "outsider." McKinley =======================CABLE ENDS============================