FOR TYMOSHENKO, "BETTER TO BE A VICTIM THAN A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000235 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: FOR TYMOSHENKO, "BETTER TO BE A VICTIM THAN A LOSER" Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b/d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Nearly a week has passed since the February 7 presidential runoff, and PM Yuliya Tymoshenko has been uncharacteristically absent from the airwaves, refusing to appear in public or release a public statement under her own hand. Officials from her campaign, however, have made numerous accusations of electoral malfeasance by Party of Regions (Regions) and have vowed to fight the returns in court. MPs close to Tymoshenko admit that these court challenges have little merit and that Tymoshenko "lost the election." However, they tell us that a new parliamentary coalition for Regions that would enable President-elect Yanukovych to dissolve the Tymoshenko government is "far from a done deal." A Regions MP confirms to us that negotiations with members of Tymoshenko's coalition to defect are ongoing and mired by often mutually exclusive demands from the individual MPs. Insiders believe, however, that Tymoshenko will break her silence after the Central Election Commission certifies the results to announce her plans to become opposition leader. End summary. TYMOSHENKO'S COURT CHALLENGE WITHOUT MERIT -------------- ¶2. (C) Our Ukraine - People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) MP Roman Zvarych told us on February 12 that he has been in direct contact with PM Tymoshenko and was tasked by her to both fight to a) preserve the existing parliamentary coalition between OU-PSD, the Lytvyn Bloc and Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT); and b) create an opposition plan should this first task prove impossible. Under no circumstances would Tymoshenko resign the PM's position, he stated. He described her current state as "defeated, unwell, and exhausted," and told us that there had been serious concerns about her health during the last weeks of campaigning. "She told me we lost," Zvarych said, "but I reminded her that only five people in Ukraine's history have gotten more than 45% of the vote in a presidential election, and she is one of them. This gives us room to fight." Zvarych conceded that Tymoshenko had lost the election, and that he had advised her that appealing local court cases to the High Administrative Court would be futile. "We have no legal basis to have the election results thrown out. I hope she realizes that, but who knows what Yuliya will decide?" ¶3. (C) OSCE/ODIHR's legal analyst explained to us on February 12 that the observation mission did not believe there was any merit to Tymoshenko's claims of widespread election fraud. He described the few specific allegations that the PM's team has provided to ODIHR as "nickel-and-dime stuff" that, even if proven valid, would have no effect on the election outcome. ODIHR is concerned that Tymoshenko's team continues to publicly claim massive falsification, but ignores ODIHR's repeated requests for information to back up their allegations. Fraud on the scale that Tymoshenko is claiming, according to the legal analyst, would require an "enormous conspiracy" at multiple levels of the election system and would be visible to all serious election observation organizations. He chalked up the PM's repeated claims that the election was stolen to a Ukrainian proverb that says it is "better to be a victim than a loser." NEW PARLIAMENTARY COALITION "NOT A DONE DEAL" -------------- ¶4. (C) Zvarych also argued that the new Party of Regions (Regions) coalition is far from being a "done deal." According to him, the Lytvyn Bloc is waiting for a decision from the members of the OU-PSD faction, whose votes (at least 37) are needed to dissolve the existing coalition with Lytvyn and Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT),before the Lytvyn Bloc will agree to join a new coalition with Regions. According to Zvarych, there are not at this point 37 OU-PSD members who are ready to make this move. ¶5. (C) There are many factors at play in the decision to enter a new coalition, Zvarych continued. For Lytvyn, who received an abysmal 2.35% of the vote in the January 17 first round, it is the fear of pre-term parliamentary elections (where it is predicted that his bloc would lose most of its seats) that motivates his decision to stay in the existing coalition with BYuT and OU-PSD, or to support the formation of a new coalition with Regions. "Regions obviously does not have the 37 members of OU-PSD that it needs to vote the Tymoshenko government out of power," he added, "or they would have already started the process to do so. We are calling KYIV 00000235 002 OF 002 their bluff and will continue to fight for the existing coalition." ¶6. (C) What will happen within the OU-PSD faction, which is currently comprised of several disparate parties with competing interests, is not clear. Party of Regions Deputy Faction Leader Volodymyr Makeyenko told us that the groups within OU-PSD are fracturing and that the MPs want to negotiate with Regions separately. He said that now OU-PSD "has 72 faction leaders." Makeyenko explained that they are working with as many MPs as possible, but the many competing interests within OU-PSD are often cross-cutting and MP demands are often mutually exclusive. He said that differing groups within OU-PSD have variously demanded the Prime Ministership for President Yushchenko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Serhiy Tihipko, or former PM Yuriy Yekhanurov as the price for their backing for a new coalition. Makeyenko said that coalition negotiations are still ongoing, but that he is confident they will ultimately be successful, because OU-PSD MPs will eventually understand that a coalition is better than losing their seats -- a fate awaiting most of them in a new election. ¶7. (C) Zvarych told us that he and the MPs with whom he is aligned will most certainly stick by Tymoshenko and are preparing to create a formidable opposition. There are two scenarios under which this could happen: The first would be to maintain the existing coalition and deprive Regions of a no-confidence vote against the Tymoshenko government. Tymoshenko would thus remain PM. The second scenario, which would take place if a new coalition is formed and Tymoshenko's government is dissolved, would be to "make so much hell" for Yanukovych that he has no choice but to agree to pre-term parliamentary elections at a time that would be convenient for those in the opposition. DEPUTY JUSTICE MINISTER CONCURS -------------- ¶8. (C) We also spoke February 12 with Deputy Justice Minister Yevgen Korniychuk, a Tymoshenko loyalist. Korniychuk agreed that Tymoshenko felt beleaguered. She regarded the congratulatory calls from President Obama and other European leaders as premature since the CEC has not yet certified final results. Korniychuk admitted that Tymoshenko's legal case was extremely weak. If the campaign cannot reveal something more significant in the next day or two he will advise Tymoshenko to ease back on court challenges, resign, and lead the opposition. Korniychuk maintained that Regions had bought substantial votes, but that BYuT would not be able to prove it in court. ¶9. (C) Korniychuk acknowledged that Regions was engaged in an intense effort to win over a majority of OU-PSD MPs to oust Tymoshenko and form a new coalition. He predicted that, in the end, they would probably succeed. Tymoshenko, he contended, would never agree that Yanukovych had won. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) We expect Tymoshenko to break her silence after the Central Election Commission certifies the election result, possibly as early as February 13. A victim line is probable: she will say Yanukovych did not win, and has no moral right to be President of Ukraine, whether or not she pushes the court cases hard. Her fate as PM appears in the hands of the inchoate OU-PSD faction -- and the ability of Regions to woo them. TEFFT