TERNOPIL: FEARS OF FRAUD NOT BORNE OUT IN FIRST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000186 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2020 TAGS: PREL PGOV UP SUBJECT: TERNOPIL: FEARS OF FRAUD NOT BORNE OUT IN FIRST ROUND PRESIDENTIAL VOTE REF: 09 KYIV 590 Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During a recent visit to Ternopil Oblast in west-central Ukraine, campaign officials, NGOs and journalists told us that they were concerned about vote buying in the oblast during the presidential elections. PM Yuliya Tymoshenko and Party of Regions candidate Viktor Yanukovych's campaign directors accused one another of compiling lists and soliciting votes for sale from the economically depressed villages of the oblast. The results of the January 17 first-round presidential vote, however, did not indicate significant fraud, with 72% of the oblast's vote split among the top three "orange" candidates. Yanukovych came in fourth with 9.82%. Experts caution, however, that significant fraud would not occur until the second round, "when it matters." The nationalist "Svoboda" (Freedom) Party, which won a plurality (34%) of votes in a controversial March 2009 local election, saw its candidate get less than 5%. End summary. Economically Depressed -------------- ¶2. (U) Ternopil Oblast in west-central Ukraine is one of the smallest in the country. The capital city has a population of 215,000, and the oblast was once an agricultural center and home to several large factories. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, its agricultural production has declined in the face of competition from imports, and the economic crisis has caused many factories to cease production. Many people have lost their jobs, and Ternopil's sizable student population (it has four well-respected universities, including President Yushchenko's alma mater) is also feeling the effects of the economic downturn. Too Cold to Care? -------------- ¶3. (C) Our trip to Ternopil occurred in December immediately after the first significant snowstorm of the season, the effects of which were visible in the small number of political campaign tents that had sprouted en masse in most other city-centers throughout Ukraine. PM Tymoshenko visited the city the same day we did, and several buildings bore signs that read "Tymoshenko -- our President!," while a few others read "Tymoshenko -- NOT our President!" Her speech in the square attracted a moderate-sized crowd (less than expected) and also irritated many locals, whose normal travel routes (ours included) were disrupted by the road closures. She spent a few hours in the capital before proceeding to outlying villages to pass out land certificates to local residents, according to her local campaign deputy chairman, Volodymyr Boyko. Fraud on Everyone's Mind -------------- ¶4. (C) Campaign officials representing the two front-runners (Tymoshenko and Regions candidate Yanukovych) expressed their concerns to us about the other's efforts to buy votes and perpetrate fraud in the upcoming presidential elections. Boyko told us about reports of Regions campaign officials compiling lists of potential vote-sellers, and worried that Regions would be contacting families to arrange such transactions. In order to confirm that these votes are cast as required, continued Boyko, voters are instructed to use a certain color ink pen to make a certain mark on the ballot (for example a circle or star instead of a check mark). The theory goes that the candidate's representatives on Precinct Election Commissions (PECs) will be able to tally these votes as the ballots are counted. ¶5. (C) Regions campaign deputies emphasized their concerns about fraud in the elections -- "no one wants to see an election without fraud more than Viktor Yanukovych, having had the 2004 election stolen from him." They spoke of Yanukovych's increasing popularity in the oblast and their view that Ternopil Oblast voters, once staunchly "orange," are fed up with the shenanigans of Tymoshenko and President Yushchenko and will come over to Yanukovych. ¶6. (C) Local NGO OPORA's long-term observers relayed information they had received about plans to buy votes during the elections. Their focus was on Yanukovych, since Tymoshenko was locally popular and had no need to buy votes in the oblast. They added, though, that 40 - 50% of voters KYIV 00000186 002 OF 002 were still undecided and that in the second round many would vote "against all." Insignificant Fraud; Svoboda Drops -------------- ¶7. (C) The results from the January 17 first round in Ternopil did not indicate significant fraud. PM Tymoshenko received 35.67% of the vote, President Yushchenko received 26.43%, Arseniy Yatsenyuk came in third with 9.91% and Yanukovych received 9.82%. Nationalist Oleh Tyahnybok of the Svoboda Party came in a surprising distant fifth place with just 4.89%. The Svoboda tally is in sharp contrast to the 34% the party won in March, when Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT) refused to campaign. These results track with the scenario of an "orange" constituency that split among various candidates, with a modest but growing "blue" vote captured by Yanukovych. Comment: On to the Second Round -------------- ¶8. (C) International observers agreed that the first round of elections passed without major incident and witnessed more problems with organization and procedural confusion than malicious fraud. They tell us privately, though, that they are still concerned about fraud, particularly in the form of vote buying, during the February 7 second round because "that's the one that counts." The poor showing by the nationalist "Svoboda" party candidate indicated that, despite difficult economic times, its agenda is still only marginally appealing to voters. TEFFT