SE GRATION MEETS SOUTHERN OPPOSITION LEADERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000310 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM EAID SU SUBJECT: SE GRATION MEETS SOUTHERN OPPOSITION LEADERS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On February 18 U.S. Special Envoy (SE) to Sudan, General Scott Gration met in Juba with Southern Sudan opposition party leaders who told him that funding for opposition parties and space for campaigning are critical if there is to be any chance for free and fair elections in Southern Sudan. Attendees see a glimmer of hope for free elections in the south in the fact that 374 members of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) were ejected from the party on February 17 for running as independent candidates, stating that the SPLM's fracture creates space for the opposition. Attendees also widely rejected Yasir Arman, the SPLM's presidential candidate, for ethnic and strategic reasons. The SPLM is clearly using illegitimate means to make life difficult for southern opposition parties, an approach to democracy that may be difficult to unlearn. End Summary. -------------- Funding for Opposition Parties Critical -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On February 18 SE Gration met with Southern Sudan opposition party leaders who told him that funding for opposition parties is critical if there is to be any chance for free and fair elections in Southern Sudan. Leaders in attendance represented every significant party in the southern opposition, including the National Congress Party (NCP) and Lam Akol's SPLM - Democratic Change (SPLM-DC). Attendees stated that funding for the SPLM is overwhelming by comparison with that available to opposition parties, largely because the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and the SPLM are not truly separate, and the funds of the GoSS support the SPLM and its election campaign. They also asserted that the SPLM receives aid from the international community, either directly, or through aid received by the GoSS. Further, they pointed out that as the incumbent party, the SPLM is in a position to take credit for development and dole out money to influence or buy votes. ¶3. (SBU) Attendees stated that opposition party funding is necessary to fund campaign transportation, voter education, and most importantly, ballot box monitoring during elections. Attendees noted that having monitors in all voting centers will be a huge undertaking and expense, and while they welcomed �A;international monitors, international monitors will be wholly insufficient and most polling locations will be monitored solely by party members. Attendees argued that ultimately, funding for opposition parties is about making the electoral process more transparent. Attendees made clear that they look to the international community for this help because neither the Government of National Unity nor the GoSS will provide funds. -------------- Space to Campaign Crucial -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Opposition party leaders in attendance stated that the SPLM and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are intimidating their candidates and obstructing their parties' campaign activities. They agreed that generally it is safe for them to campaign in Juba because of the international presence, but that when their party members enter rural areas they are truly in danger from SPLA forces. They noted that the SPLA is in effect the army of the SPLM, not the army of Southern Sudan, and that many SPLM politicians are also SPLA commanders. ¶5. (SBU) Attendees stated that only the international community, and the signatories to the CPA in particular, could hope to reign in the SPLM's campaign of intimidation and obstruction. In fact they placed some of the blame for the SPLM's behavior on the international community, and the U.S. in particular, stating that U.S support to the SPLM has made them strong, and that the SPLM would not act in this manner without support from the West. They said that if these activities continue unabated, the opposition KHARTOUM 00000310 002 OF 002 will be forced to withdraw from the election because they cannot face the forces of the SPLA and police. ¶6. (SBU) Opposition party attendees see a glimmer of hope for free elections in the south in the fact that 374 members of the SPLM were ejected from the party on February 17 for running as independent candidates. Attendees stated that the SPLM's fracture creates space for the opposition because if the SPLM were united it would squeeze out all opposition. Attendees asserted that it is not possible to peacefully split with the SPLM, and that the SPLM will crack down on these independents as they have done on other opposition parties. As a consequence, attendees opined that these independents will not return to the SPLM after elections, but will instead form a new party. -------------- Yasir Arman Opposed by Southern Opposition -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Attendees widely condemned the SPLM's presidential candidate. On a personal level they asked how the SPLM could ask them to vote for a Muslim Arab. On a strategic level, attendees expressed a fear that the election of Arman will create confusion and discord in the south. They stated that, if elected, Arman will seek to delay the referendum in order to have more time to make unity attractive, an idea they categorically opposed. Attendees said they will do everything they can to ensure Arman is not elected. They did not have the same opinion about GoSS President and SPLM nominee Salva Kiir, whom (with the exception of SPLM-DC) they support, and they indicated that their hope is to achieve a divided government, with the SPLM controlling the Presidency of Southern Sudan and the opposition parties controlling the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: Southern opposition leaders in attendance spoke convincingly about the problems facing them. The SPLM is clearly making life difficult for opposition parties in the South. The Government of Southern Sudan has received nearly unconditional support from the international community and appears less concerned with the credibility of elections than with consolidating authority in the lead-up to the southern referendum. Even the opposition party leaders stated that they want a unified south until after the referendum, and that they hope to democratically transform the SPLM and the South at some later date. The danger is that a precedent will be established in Southern Sudan whereby the incumbent party bullies and crushes opposition, and that this approach to democracy will be difficult to unlearn. End Comment. WHITEHEAD