SE GRATION MEETS WITH ABDEL AZIZ ON ELECTIONS BOYCOTT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000308 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SU SUBJECT: SE GRATION MEETS WITH ABDEL AZIZ ON ELECTIONS BOYCOTT ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On February 18 U.S. Special Envoy (SE) to Sudan, General Scott Gration met in Juba with Abdel Aziz El Hilu (SPLM), Deputy Governor of Southern Kordofan state, who attempted to explain the benefits of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) election boycott in that state. Aziz stated that the 2008 census, upon which the National Elections Commission (NEC) based voting constituencies, was conducted in an illegal manner which intentionally under-counted and disenfranchised the Nuba people. Aziz explained that the SPLM demands a repetition of the population census in Southern Kordofan, and delaying elections to accomplish this task is reasonable. Aziz said he recognized that elections and popular consultations could proceed without SPLM participation, simply asserting that without SPLM participation these processes will not be valid. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On February 18 SE Gration met with Abdel Aziz El Hilu (SPLM),Deputy Governor of Southern Kordofan state, who told SE Gration that the SPLM will boycott elections in Southern Kordofan and attempted to explain the benefits of this action. (Note: A SPLM election boycott threat in Southern Kordofan state, unless the government resets the census results and the NEC accordingly redraws geographical constituencies for the state, was first announced on January 24. This request was promptly rejected by the NEC on January 25, with the NEC stating that there is not time to redraw constituencies. End Note.) ¶3. (SBU) Aziz stated that the 2008 census, upon which the National Elections Commission based voting constituencies, was conducted in an illegal manner which intentionally under-counted and disenfranchised the Nuba people. He noted systematic flaws in preparations for the census, such as not allowing time for the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs); the removal of mines; the integration of the civil service; and census conduct, such as a lack of census takers familiar with the people, languages and geography of the Nuba mountains. He said these flaws led to many areas not being covered by the census, although he admitted that the SPLM boycott of the census in Southern Kordofan contributed to under-counting. He said that the census is in fact racist because it intentionally under-counted the Nuba and over-counted the Arab tribes of the state, who the government in Khartoum views as more likely to vote for the National Congress Party (NCP). ¶4. (SBU) Aziz explained that the SPLM demands a repetition of the population census in Southern Kordofan. He stated that he is not certain how long this process will take but believed it could be accomplished in a few weeks. He also said that delaying April elections in Southern Kordofan three or four months in order to accomplish this task is reasonable. ¶5. (SBU) Aziz informed SE Gration that the Khartoum government was considering giving Southern Kordofan four additional seats in the National Assembly, for a total of 21. He said, however, that Southern Kordofan should have at least 27 seats based on a realistic tally of Southern Kordofan's population in relation to the population of Sudan as of the 1986 census. (Note: These additional seats would need to be appointed by the Presidency as there is not time for constituencies to be redrawn, with a negotiated portion of these seats allocated to SPLM and NCP appointees. End Note.) ¶6. (SBU) Aziz stated that if their demands are not met the SPLM in Southern Kordofan are quite willing to proceed with the boycott and pursue their grievances in Sudan's Constitutional Court. Aziz said that in this case the SPLM will still act as opposition, but from outside the government. Aziz said that the SPLM recognized the risk that their Nuba constituency could suffer long-term disenfranchisement through complete exclusion from local, state, and national government, and loss of the opportunity for participation in popular consultations, which require an elected state legislature. He said that these risks have been calculated and accepted. ¶7. (SBU) Comment. The NCP's subsequent agreement to rerun the census in Southern Kordofan and postpone state-level elections until then has validated Aziz's contention and shows the degree to which the NCP is willing to give to SPLM demands in order for the KHARTOUM 00000308 002 OF 002 elections to occur. That said, we are not sure that the SPLM will be satisfied with a census rerun if the final tally does not meet the SPLM's expectations. End Comment. WHITEHEAD