DARFUR ELECTIONS UPDATE, PART II: IN WEST DARFUR, A LAME

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000260 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM SU SUBJECT: DARFUR ELECTIONS UPDATE, PART II: IN WEST DARFUR, A LAME DUCK WALI BOWS OUT WHILE CONTROVERSY SURROUNDS NCP NOMINATION REF: 10 KHARTOUM 158; 10 KHARTOUM 102; 10 KHARTOUM 91 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Abulgasim Imam Al Hajj, the former rebel who was appointed Wali of West Darfur as a reward for signing the Declaration of Commitment (DOC) to the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) in 2006, has no real constituency and has decided not to run in the April 2010 elections. In the race to replace him, there is growing controversy over the National Congress Party's (NCP) decision to nominate a highly-unpopular former governor, Jaafar Abdulhakan Idris, over the Masalit Sultan, Saad Abdulrahman Bahreldin. As the Masalit's traditional tribal leader, Bahreldin maintains broad allegiance among his tribe, despite being a member of the NCP. With the Sultan out of the picture, his brother Assad has declared his intent to run as a candidate from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Assad Bahreldin believes he has overwhelming support among the Masalit, who constitute a majority in West Darfur, but cautioned that the NCP may play "dirty games" to guarantee victory for its candidate. Candidates for other opposition parties are less well-known. End Summary. -------------- -------------- BACKGROUND DEMOGRAPHICS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) West Darfur state has a population of approximately 1.3 million, according to the 2008 census. Among the major tribes are the Masalit, whose traditional homeland spans the Chad-Sudan border, and the Fur, who are found mainly in Zalingei and the western reaches of Jebel Marra. West Darfur also includes a number of smaller African tribes and various Arab tribal groups, the latter of which are found primarily in the area of Wadi Saleh. Aside from nomadic Arab tribes, most of West Darfur's people are farmers whose ability to work the land has been severely disrupted by massive displacement caused by the conflict. IDP camps and camp-like settlements are scattered throughout the state, with various levels of humanitarian assistance. The IDP population of West Darfur is estimated to be over 700,000. -------------- -------------- PRECARIOUS SECURITY SITUATION -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Much like the rest of the region, West Darfur's security situation remains unpredictable due to the proliferation of armed actors. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has bases in the capital of El Geneina as well as Mournei, Zalingei, Nertiti, Mukhjar, and Foro Baranga. Arab militia fighters, many of whom have been integrated to the GOS military and security apparatus, are present in most areas of West Darfur outside Jebel Marra and reportedly harass IDP populations. Masalit rebels loyal to Sudan Liberation Army (SLA)/Khamis Abdalla and its breakaway faction, SLA/General Line (also known as SLA/Mainstream) also maintain a presence in Dar Masalit, but are extremely weak militarily. Rebels loyal to SLA/Abdul Wahid hold territory in western Jebel Marra, and in recent weeks this area has been plagued with infighting among commanders loyal to the Paris-based Chairman and those who oppose him and favor participation in the peace process (ref B). Rebels from the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) are increasingly present in the area of Jebel Moon, and according to UN Sector West have been clashing with local SLA/AW forces in the area since January 28 (septel). Finally, while most Chadian rebel forces have moved away from the Chad-Sudan border in Darfur, a small number are believed to maintain encampments south of Geneina. -------------- -------------- CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The current Wali (Governor) of West Darfur is Abulgasim Imam Al Hajj, a Fur from Zalingei. (Note: Poloff discussed elections with Al Haj in Khartoum on January 31 (ref c). End Note.) A former SLA/Abdul Wahid Commander, Abulgasim split off to form his own faction and signed a stand-alone Declaration of Commitment (DOC) to the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) in Libya in November ¶2006. His group is alternatively known as SLA/Mother or SLA/Abulgasim Imam. Abulgasim is said to have received military and logistical support from the GOS, which has also been accused of engineering his split from the mainstream SLA. As the first Fur rebel leader to join the DPA and DOC signatories, Abulgasim was KHARTOUM 00000260 002 OF 003 rewarded with the post of Wali of West Darfur. ¶5. (SBU) Abulgasim Imam remains highly unpopular among the Fur, due to their perception that he sold-out to the GOS by signing the DOC. He is also considered to be little more than a figurehead, retaining no control over the various GOS military and paramilitary forces operating in West Darfur. He generally exerts little influence on important matters. Furthermore, he has done little to establish ties between SLA/Mother and other DPA and DOC signatories, leaving himself and his movement isolated. Weak, marginalized and with no real legacy or political platform in West Darfur, Abulgasim has decided not to participate in the April 2010 elections. ¶6. (SBU) Speaking to poloff in at his residence in El Geneina on February 8, Abulgasim said elections in West Darfur would be neither free nor fair. He asserted that the 2008 census results of 1.3 million vastly undercounted West Darfur's population, noting that the 1993 census put the population of West Darfur of 1.8 million, and that he believed the current population was closer to 3 million. He further noted that insecurity would present a major challenge to elections, noting ongoing fighting in Jebel Moon and Jebel Marra (septel). "We cannot have elections without peace," he said. Furthermore, no party outside of the NCP has the capacity or organization necessary to mobilize voters, he said. -------------- 2010 GOVERNOR'S RACE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) There has been continuing controversy NCP surrounding the nomination for Wali of West Darfur. The seemingly obvious choice for the party in a state dominated by the Masalit tribe was the Sultan of the Masalit, Saad Abdulrahman Bahreldin. As the Masalit's traditional tribal leader, Bahreldin maintains popular allegiance among his tribe despite being a member of the NCP. Instead, NCP leadership chose former West Darfur Governor Jaafar Abdulhakan Idris, a Fur Shartai (chief) known for his hard-line NCP views, who remains highly unpopular due to alleged crimes committed by the Government during his tenure as Governor from 2006-2007. The Sultan's brother Assad, himself a candidate for Governor as a candidate of the DUP, told poloff in El Geneina on February 9 that in NCP deliberations in Khartoum, Vice President Ali Osman Taha had supported the candidacy of the Sultan, but was vetoed by Assistant to the President Nafie Ali Nafie, who insisted on nominating the Shartai. "It was a very controversial decision," he said. ¶8. (SBU) Following the NCP nomination of the Shartai, Assad Bahreldin stated that he advised his brother the Sultan to cut ties with the NCP. "I told him, you supported these people for twenty years, and this is how they treat you?" President Bashir invited the Sultan to Khartoum to attempt to smooth things over, but stopped short of offering him the nomination. With the Sultan out of the picture, "the people turned to me and told me I must run," said Assad. (Note: During the meeting with poloff, Assad received a call from his lawyer informing him that the state electoral commission had approved his name to be listed on the ballot for Governor. End Note.) Assad, a member of the DUP, was confident of his victory. "We have a very simple culture here. I'm a tribal leader, and my people will stand by me," he said, claiming that he had support from 90% of the electorate. The only thing that could derail his chances are "dirty games" played by the government, noting that during voter registration some voter lists had disappeared and the location of registration centers changed at the last minute with no prior notice. ¶9. (SBU) The campaigning phase of the elections began on February ¶13. Assad stated that he has traveled widely as head of the West Darfur branch of the Peace and Reconciliation Commission established by the Transitional Darfur Regional Authority (TDRA), and recently spent 28 days traveling to 76 villages and localities in West Darfur. Nonetheless, he believed insecurity may influence campaigning especially in the Jebel Moon area near Sileah. Other candidates for the Wali of West Darfur are Arbab Mohamed Ibrahim of the SPLM, Tajeldin Bahreldin of Umma, and Osman Risig Mohd or the Popular Congress Party (PCP). These candidates are not well-known nor do they appear to have to have large followings. ¶10. (SBU) Comment: If West Darfuris vote along tribal lines, DUP candidate Assad Bahreldin should come out as the clear winner, given that his Masalit tribe constitutes the majority in the state. KHARTOUM 00000260 003 OF 003 Furthermore the NCP candidate, Jaafar Abdulhakan Idris is not even popular among his own Fur tribe. Whether the elections will be free and fair, however, is another story. WHITEHEAD