MISSERIYA BUILDING PERMANENT STRUCTURES IN ABYEI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000160

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO MOPS SMIG SU
SUBJECT: MISSERIYA BUILDING PERMANENT STRUCTURES IN ABYEI

REF: 10 KHARTOUM 54; 10 KHARTOUM 34


1. (SBU) In a conversation with Poloff on January 26, Mark Rutgers,
United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) Head of Office for Sector
VI (Abyei),stated that members of the Misseriya tribe are
constructing large permanent structures in five separate locations
in the Abyei area without required permits from the local
administration. Further, Charles Abyei (SPLM),Speaker of the
Abyei Legislative Council, told Poloff on January 27, that
Misseriya leaders have announced plans to construct 40 permanent
modern villages in Abyei, that the government has provided support
for this initiative, and that the intention was to enable the
Misseriya to participate in the Abyei referendum in January, 2011.
Meanwhile, as the Misseriya continue to shift east into Unity State
in search of pastureland, they encounter Sudan People's Liberation
Army (SPLA) forces intent on disarming them, resulting in the
second shootout this month between Misseriya nomads and the SPLA.
The latest developments in Abyei could hardly be more negative, but
perhaps attendees of the recently scheduled Border Governors' Forum
in early February can develop a concerted approach to this
festering crisis.

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Abyei Building Boom
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2. (SBU) In a conversation with Poloff on January 26, Mark Rutgers,
UNMIS Head of Office for Sector VI (Abyei),stated that members of
the Misseriya tribe have received building materials and are
constructing buildings in five separate locations in the Abyei
area. The buildings are reportedly large structures, and the
Misseriya have told UNMIS patrols that they are building schools
and medical clinics. (Note: Northern areas of the Abyei Special
Administrative District typically contain numerous temporary
villages during the dry season, consisting of temporary structures
and nomadic camps. These recent building activities are unusual
because they consist of large public facilities built with bricks.
End Note.) The origin of the materials in unknown, but Rutgers
confirms that they were not received from the Abyei Administration.
Further, the construction activities were not coordinated with the
Abyei Administration and no building permits were received. Deng
Arop Kuol (SPLM),the newly appointed Abyei Administrator (Ref A),
is currently in Juba, and Rutgers expects that any response to the
illegal construction activities will await Kuol's arrival.


3. (SBU) On January 27, Poloff spoke to Charles Abyei, Speaker of
the Abyei Legislative Council, who said that the Misseriya have
recently held two public rallies in the Abyei area. Abyei stated
that at the first rally Misseriya leaders announced a plan to
construct 40 permanent modern villages in Abyei, that the
government has provided support for this initiative, and that the
intention was to enable the Misseriya to participate in the Abyei
referendum in January, 2011. (Note: According to the recently
passed Abyei Referendum Law, in order to participate in the Abyei
referendum an individual must either be a Ngok Dinka, or a
"resident of Abyei." The law leaves it to a yet-to-be-formed Abyei
Referendum Commission to define who is a "resident of Abyei," but
the definition is likely to require some evidence of permanent
residence. End Note.) Abyei told Poloff that at the second rally,
Misseriya leaders spoke of mobilizing Misseriya resistance to any
forces that attempt to stop these building initiatives. Abyei also
noted that current building sites are not only in northern Abyei,
where the Misseriya typically settle during the dry season, but
dispersed throughout the Abyei Special Administrative District.

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Another Shoot-out in Unity State
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4. (SBU) On January 26, UNMIS reported a fire-fight between
Misseriya tribes people and SPLA soldiers in Unity State resulting
in one SPLA soldier and two Misseriya killed. The direct cause of
the shoot-out is unknown, but the SPLA is attempting to enforce a
no-arms policy in Southern Sudan and requiring Misseriya herders to
disarm upon entering the south, which the Misseriya are reluctant
to do. This is the second shoot-out between SPLA solders and
Misseriya in Unity State in January (Ref B).

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Border Governors' Forum Scheduled
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KHARTOUM 00000160 002 OF 002



5. (SBU) On January 24, Aidoff met with Ahmed Haroun (NCP),
Governor of Southern Kordofan state, who mentioned that he has
scheduled the long anticipated Governors' Forum for the Border
States for February 2-3. (Note: The Forum for the Border States is
an opportunity for the Governors of all ten Sudanese states that
share the 1956 north/south border, as well as the Abyei
Administrator, to discuss border issues. End Note.) Haroun
declined offered assistance with the forum and has not invited
international participation. The agenda of the forum is not
available but it is likely that migration issues will be discussed
in some form.


6. (SBU) Comment: The latest developments in Abyei could hardly be
more negative. It appears that the Misseriya are attempting to
numerically flood the Abyei area in the lead-up to the referendum
in order to win Abyei for northern Sudan. Any attempt to rig the
Abyei referendum by filling it with Misseriya will be seen by the
Ngok Dinka as an existential threat. The Ngok Dinka consider Abyei
their homeland, and recognize that their existence there will be
extremely tenuous if, as a result of the January 2011 referenda,
they are cut off from the south and left to the civil and military
oversight of the north. Senior SPLM figures will likewise consider
such a move extremely provocative. The Abyei Administrator is also
obligated to respond in some fashion to these unauthorized
construction activities coming as a direct challenge to the
authority of his new administration. With the Misseriya preparing
for confrontation and the Abyei Administration obligated to
respond, the potential for violence is high.


7. (SBU) Comment Continued: Ironically, these moves by the
Misseriya may ultimately hurt Misseriya interests irreparably.
While the Misseriya are rightfully concerned about the future of
Abyei and SPLA control of this region, the existential issue for
the Misseriya is not residency, but grazing rights, both in Abyei
and beyond into Southern Sudan. If the Misseriya anger the Dinka
and the SPLM enough, they could find themselves after January, 2011
with the hard border that they fear, permanently losing the ability
to graze their cattle in Southern Sudan which is necessary for the
survival of their herds. The best solution for Abyei is probably a
deal in which the Misseriya agree not to contest the Abyei
referendum in return for which the SPLM agree in writing to respect
the grazing rights of the Misseriya in perpetuity, spell out the
parameters of these rights, and perhaps even put a clause in their
constitution stating as much. The latest events take the parties
another large step away from this result. End Comment.
WHITEHEAD