DARFUR ELECTIONS UPDATE, PART I: IN NORTH DARFUR'S GOVERNOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000158 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR SU SUBJECT: DARFUR ELECTIONS UPDATE, PART I: IN NORTH DARFUR'S GOVERNOR RACE, KIBIR SEEKS HOLD ON POWER AMIDST UNCERTAIN COMPETITION REF: 10 KHARTOUM 55; 09 KHARTOUM 1411 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: North Darfur Wali (Governor) Osman Mohamed Yousif Kibir is seeking to extend his rule as the National Congress Party (NCP) candidate in the upcoming April elections. Though generally unpopular even among his own Berti tribe, Kibir has extensive party resources at his disposal and faces an uncertain competition; a coalition of opposition parties and Darfuri civil society organizations have urged that elections be postponed until peace and security is restored, yet candidates from some of these same parties, including Popular Congress Party (PCP),Umma Party and SPLM, have made known their intent to run against Kibir. Though unable to register as a political party, Sudan Liberation Army/Minni Minnawi has also declared its intent to field a candidate as an independent. The opposition candidates' level of support or ability to wage a convincing campaign remains unknown, though it will likely be hampered by a lack of access due to an unpredictable security situation, and lack of funds. End Summary. -------------- BACKGROUND DEMOGRAPHICS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) North Darfur state, with a population of approximately 2.1 million according to the 2008 census results, is an ethnically diverse region. Among the main ethnic groups are the Fur, who are found in the area of Jebel Marra as well as the eastern and northern plains; the Zaghawa, who inhabit the barren northwest near the Chadian border as well as the areas of Shangil Tobaya and Dar es Salaam; the Berti and Tunjur tribes in the area of Mellit and Taweisha, respectively; and the Maidob in the far north. North Darfur's nomadic Arab tribes are found primarily in Kabkabiya as well as the areas East of El Fasher and Um Kaddada. ¶3. (SBU) Aside from nomadic Arab tribes, most of North Darfur's people are agro-pastoralists, a lifestyle which has been severely disrupted by massive displacement caused by the conflict. There are four major Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps in North Darfur, three of which are on the outskirts of El Fasher: Zam Zam camp is almost entirely Zaghawa, while Abu Shouk and Al Salam camps are inhabited by a mix of Fur, Tunjur and other smaller tribes. Kassab IDP camp near Kutum is inhabited by a mix of Fur, Tunjur and Zaghawa. Most IDPs in North Darfur are indigenous to the state, with the exception of the tens of thousands of Zaghawa who fled fighting in Muhajeriya and surrounding villages in early 2009 for refuge in Zam Zam camp. Few IDPs participated in voter registration in North Darfur's IDP camps. ¶4. (SBU) For much of the past decade, North Darfur has been a hotbed of rebel and Arab militia activity, making passage by road highly treacherous. Fighters from Sudan Liberation Army/Abdul Wahid (SLA) hold territory in the northern reaches of Jebel Marra, Ain Siro, and the remote outpost of El Hilif. Dar Zaghawa is roamed by numerous Zaghawa rebels, with affiliations SLA/Unity, United Resistance Front (URF),and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). The area is also a stronghold of Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) signatory Sudan Liberation Army/Minni Minnawi, as is the area South of El Fasher, including Shangil Tobay. Both Minnawi and the rebels have seen their areas of influence shrink as the GOS has made significant gains on rebel territory in North Darfur in 2009. Arab militia fighters, many whom have been integrated to the GOS military and security apparatus, are present in the areas of Kabkabiya and Kutum as well as the eastern parts of the state, centered around Um Kaddada. Chadian armed opposition groups operating out of Sudan are also currently situated in the area of Mellit. -------------- CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The NCP maintains a strong hold on North Darfur State. The current Wali (Governor) of North Darfur is Osman Mohamed Yousif Kibir, a member of the Berti tribe. Kibir assumed office in 2003 following Khartoum's dismissal of former General Ibrahim Ahmed Suleiman for his opposition to using Arab militia fighters to launch a counterinsurgency against the SLA, and has been reappointed three times by President Bashir. A lifetime National Congress Party member, he has maintained favor with the regime by remaining loyal and implementing the policies of decision-makers in Khartoum, which at times has made him unpopular even among his own KHARTOUM 00000158 002 OF 002 tribe; in January 2010 local media reported that the leader of the Berti appealed to Kibir to remove Chadian rebels from the Berti homeland following a series of raids of villages, looting and rapes (ref A). Kibir allegedly told him that he could do nothing, as the decision to relocate the Chadians to the area had originated with the Government of Sudan (GOS) in Khartoum. -------------- The 2010 GOVERNOR'S RACE -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Kibir is the NCP's candidate for the Governorship in North Darfur, though the rest of the field is somewhat muddled. On January 24, an alliance of opposition parties and Darfuri civil society organizations held a press conference in Khartoum urging the government to postpone elections until peace and security in Darfur has been restored. Nonetheless some of these same opposition parties have named candidates for the North Darfur Governorship. Hassan al Turabi's Popular Congress Party (PCP) for example, has nominated Abdalla Al Dowma Adam, a Berti from Mellit. Once NCP Secretary for North Darfur, he joined the Popular Congress Party following Turabi's split from the National Islamic Front (NIF), which later became the NCP. Adam reportedly runs several businesses in North Darfur, and is seeking to capitalize on dissatisfaction among the Berti with Kibir's failure to prevent mayhem caused by Chadian rebels in the Berti homeland. ¶7. (SBU) The Umma party, a historical force in the region, has nominated Ismael Kitir Abdel Karim. A Zaghawa from Tine, he serves as the head of the Umma Party in North Darfur and is Chairman of the Darfur Forum for Reconciliation and Peaceful Coexistence, a civil society organization. The SPLM, meanwhile nominated Dr. Adam Musa, a member of the Fur tribe and medical doctor currently working with the North Darfur Ministry of Health. The DUP has decided to put forth Dr. Mutasim Abdalla Mohamed Sharif, a veterinary doctor currently working for the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in El Fasher. The latter two candidates are relatively unknown and are not expected to compete seriously in the race. ¶8. (SBU) Despite being unable to register with the National Electoral Commission (NEC) as a political party (ref B), SLA/Minnawi plans to run candidates at several levels in the 2010 elections as independents, according to SLA/Minnawi Head of Foreign Relations Ali Traio. (Note: Traio told poloff on July 26 that local media reports of Minnawi himself running for a parliamentary seat representing Umm Barro, North Darfur were false. He noted that Minnawi is not planning to declare himself for any position. End Note.) For the North Darfur Governorship, Traio stated that SLA/Minnawi will run Dr. Mohamed Musa, a Berti. An agricultural economist, Musa currently serves as a dean at the university of Khartoum. Another independent candidate is Ibrahim Mohamed Suleiman, a former State Minister of Finance in North Darfur. ¶9. (SBU) Because opposition party candidates were announced only very recently, the candidates have conducted very little campaigning to date. In addition to a lack of funds, they are restricted from travel by an unpredictable security situation. In contrast, the Wali--protected by the GOS military and security apparatus--has traveled extensively throughout North Darfur to mobilize support, including trips to Kutum, Mellit, Taweisha, Malha, and Kabkabiya. In one instance Kibir, accompanied by influential Presidential Assistant Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie, reportedly flew via UNAMID helicopter to Um Kaddada ostensibly with the stated purpose of inaugurating a new development project, but in fact held a political rally to mobilize NCP supporters. Rumors also abound that the NCP has co-opted state and local elections committees to manipulate voter registration in its favor, and that the party is making ample use of its access to local media to propagate its message. Opposition parties in North Darfur, starved for funding and without access to government resources, have had no such chance to campaign. ¶10. (SBU) Comment: With an underfunded opposition that is unable to access most of the state, the NCP appears to be taking full advantage of superior resources and organization to guarantee a landslide victory. With polling non-existent, it is difficult to ascertain what, if any, support the opposition candidates may have. Post plans to meet with opposition candidates in El Fasher in the coming weeks. WHITEHEAD