MBEKI DISCUSSES AUPD ROLE IN DARFUR, POST-2011 ISSUES WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000119 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/22 TAGS: PGOV PREL SU SUBJECT: MBEKI DISCUSSES AUPD ROLE IN DARFUR, POST-2011 ISSUES WITH SE GRATION REF: 10 KHARTOUM 126 CLASSIFIED BY: Robert E. Whitehead, Charge d'Affaires; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 20 meeting with SE Gration, former South African President and current Chairman of the African Union High Level Panel on Darfur (AUPD) Thabo Mbeki expressed extreme dissatisfaction with the approach of Joint Chief Mediator Djibril BassolC),whom he criticized for having squandered numerous opportunities to advance the Darfur peace process. Due to BassolC)'s failure to create a credible civil society forum, Mbeki said, the AUPD will be organizing its own civil society conference in Darfur from March 15-16 at the urging of Darfuri civil society leaders. Mbeki also addressed his potential role as a facilitator for discussions between the NCP and SPLM on issues of CPA implementation and post-2011 scenarios, noting that while both parties appear eager for his engagement on these issues, neither has articulated how they would like him to proceed. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On February 20, SE Gration met former South African President and current AUPD Chairman Thabo Mbeki in Khartoum. Mbeki noted that both Chad and Sudan appear to be approaching their January 15 normalization agreement very seriously. He stated that Chadian President Deby assured him that he had told the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) to leave Chadian territory and that they had in fact done so. Mbeki said that while the AUPD had not yet been able to verify this, "clearly there has been some movement." He further expressed optimism about discussions between GOS Presidential Advisor Dr. Ghazi Salaheddin and JEM Chairman Khalil Ibrahim in N'Djamena (septel). ¶3. (C) Mbeki was decidedly less sanguine about the prospects for the Doha peace talks led by Joint Chief Mediator Djibril BassolC). BassolC) and GOQ Foreign Minister Al Mahmoud "continue to proceed in a way that is not going to produce results," he asserted, characterizing their approach as continually re-inventing the wheel. Noting that he has been attempting to set up a meeting with BassolC) since October 2009, Mbeki said he has spoken to AU and UN leadership to urge him to change his approach, to no avail. ¶4. (C) Mbeki stated that due to the failure of BassolC) and Al Mahmoud to create a credible civil society forum, numerous Darfuri civil society leaders have approached the AUDP about the need to convene a conference on the ground in Darfur. Mbeki is spearheading this effort, with a target date of March 15-16. The forum would be constructive, he said, because it's clear that there is consensus on major issues for most Darfurians, including IDPs, civil society, refugees, native administration, and others. Agreement on a wide range of issues by a broad swathe of Darfurians should feed into the Doha process, but "due to BassolC)'s approach this seems impossible," he said, noting that BassolC) is apparently trying to bring a selection of Darfurian civil society figures to Doha for additional consultations on March 28. ¶5. (C) Mbeki also addressed his potential role as a facilitator for discussions between the NCP and SPLM, on issues of CPA implementation and post-2011 scenarios. Noting that both parties appear eager for his engagement on these issues, he has nonetheless received no satisfactory answer of each would like him to proceed (reftel),and what his point of entry to the discussions should be. He noted that that SPLM's response was to defer to Mbeki on what he'd like to do, while the NCP was still discussing internally how it would like him to facilitate. "Our biggest problem is that the two principals have not responded to a very simple question," he said. Mbeki noted that whatever his role, he will have to work with newly appointed UN Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) Haile Menkerios. "I talked to Haile and we agreed to work together," he said, noting that one cannot deal North-South issues without cooperating with UNMIS. Similarly, the work of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) cannot be ignored, he said. ¶6. (C) Comment: With Mbeki's AUPD, UNMIS' Menkerios and the AEC, not to mention the Troika (US, UK and Norway) and IGAD, the mechanism for international community involvement in post-2011 Sudan is more muddled than ever. Until the parties determine and express their preferences for international engagement, it seems likely it will remain that way. ¶7. (U) This cable has been cleared by the Office of the Special Envoy. WHITEHEAD