NEPAL: PRACHANDA CITES PROGRESS, CHALLENGES AHEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000093

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PRACHANDA CITES PROGRESS, CHALLENGES AHEAD

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., John M. Ordway 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary. In a meeting with P-5 representatives,
Maoist leader Prachanda claimed credit for recent movement on
the peace process, but said that hardliners in other parties
are trying to stop progress. Prachanda continues to press
for the formation of a national unity government, led by the
Maoists or another "neutral" leader. While the Maoists agree
in principle with PM Nepal's "action plan" on the integration
and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants, key issues such as
the numbers and modalities of Army integration remain
unresolved. Prachanda said integration/rehabilitation and
constitution drafting must move "simultaneously," given the
low level of trust between the parties. End Summary.

Maoists Pushing Peace Process
--------------

2. (C) United Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Chairman Pushpa
Kamal Dahal "Prachanda" met with representatives of the P-5
plus Japan on January 28. Outgoing U.S. Charge Ordway and
incoming Charge Camp attended the meeting. UN Representative
Karin Landgren briefed the group on the recent UNSC debate on
UNMIN's mandate extension. Prachanda said that Maoist
"unilateral" action has led to recent progress on the peace
process, citing the discharge of disqualified combatants,
postponement of the indefinite general strike, formation of
the High-Level Political Mechanism (HLPM),and agreement "in
principle" on the action plan on integration and
rehabilitation of verified Maoist combatants. "Some leaders"
in other political parties are against the peace process,
Prachanda charged, because they worry that the promulgation
of the new constitution will benefit the Maoists, not them.

Maoists Still Want National Unity Government
--------------

3. (C) According to Prachanda, the High-Level Political
Mechanism seeks to create a "conducive environment" to
conclude the peace process. The HLPM's third meeting on
January 29 will discuss the "root cause" of the political
stagnation (from the Maoist perspective): the President's
reversal, in May 2009, of the dismissal of the then-Chief of
the Army Staff by then-Maoist PM Prachanda, undermining
"civilian supremacy." Addressing the President's
"unconstitutional" step is quite necessary, and will lead to
the formation of a government of national unity, Prachanda
said. Without a such a unity government, it will be
"difficult" to conclude the peace process within the
specified time.


4. (C) Camp asked whether the Maoists will insist on leading
a national unity government. Prachanda said that the
Maoists, as the largest party in the Constituent Assembly,
have the right to form a national unity government, but may
be able to accept a neutral leader from another party. The
Maoists cannot accept M.K. Nepal's continued leadership.
(Note: Kathmandu is rife with rumors that Prachanda has cut a
deal with G.P. Koirala, in which the ailing Koirala would
become PM. End Note.) On timing, Prachanda said the
national unity government "should" be formed before May
(note: slightly leaving the door open to a unity government
after promulgation of the constitution, but before elections,
an idea floated recently by senior Maoist leader Baburam
Bhattarai).

Integration/Rehabilitation and Constitution Together
-------------- --------------

5. (C) Prachanda said that the integration and rehabilitation
of the 19,602 "verified" Maoist combatants must move
simultaneously with the finalization of the constitution -- a
position contrary to the Government's (which says that
integration/rehabilitation must come before the
constitution),although he did admit that one could come a
few days before the other. The Maoists are "seriously
suspicious" of the Government's proposed sequencing, given

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the recent comments by the Indian Chief of Army Staff (no
Maoists should be integrated into the Nepal Army),the GON
Defense Minister (the Nepal Army can veto any integration
plan),and PM Nepal (the Maoists could end up like the LTTE).
If the Maoists eliminate their army first, they worry that
the GON could dissolve the Constituent Assembly and impose
presidential rule and/or "seriously repress" the Maoists.


6. (C) Despite the Maoist agreement "in principle" with the
GON's plan, finishing the process by May will be difficult,
Prachanda said. He outlined his negotiating position: 5,000
- 10,000 Maoists should be integrated into the Nepal Army,
4,000 rehabilitated into society, and the remainder
integrated into the Nepal Police, Armed Police, and new
security organs. (Note: informally, most experts believe
that a reasonable plan would integrate approximately 5,000
Maoists into all security institutions, including the police
and Army. End Note.)

UNMIN Safety Blanket for Maoists
--------------

7. (C) On UNMIN, Prachanda said the Maoists would have
preferred a full six month mandate extension (i.e., to June
28). Once UNMIN leaves, Prachanda worries that the
"atmosphere" will change, leading to the "isolation" of the
Maoists. Asked by Prachanda if UNMIN might stay past May if
the parties extend the constitution deadline, Landgren and
the French ambassador did not reply directly, but said that
the UNSC would need to know by March whether the GON planned
to request an extension. Ordway underscored the importance
of sticking to the May 28 deadline in the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement. In the absence of concrete progress with a clear
end to the process in sight, it will be difficult for the
international community to support any mandate extension.

Constitution Drafting Unlikely to be Complete by May 28
-------------- --------------

8. (C) Prachanda said the Maoists remain committed to
finishing the constitution by May 28, but acknowledged the
difficulty of meeting the deadline. The Maoists want to
avoid a "constitutional vacuum" on May 29. If the deadline
cannot be met, Prachanda sees two options: (1) approving a
"shortcut" constitution which would leave the details to the
future parliament, or (2) extending the timeframe for six
months to allow for completion of the draft. Even though no
one is saying so publicly, Prachanda says that leaders of the
major parties, including G.P. Koirala, favor a six-month
extension.

India, Strikes, and Violence
--------------

9. (C) Prachanda said that the Government of India's policy
toward the Maoists remains "unclear." For example, Prachanda
wondered why the Indians have not publicly supported the
HLPM. Responding to the questions of the Japanese
Ambassador, Prachanda said that he personally opposes general
strikes ("bandhs"),but that Nepal has developed a culture
whereby "no one listens to you" unless you strike. The
Maoists oppose violence, Prachanda added, claiming that the
youth wings of other parties have killed 70 Maoists since the
CPA signing in 2006, whereas the Maoists have "only" killed
10-12 people.

Comment
--------------

10. (C) The Maoist movement on the peace process in recent
weeks is encouraging -- and Prachanda is right to claim
credit -- but these positive steps have not translated into
greater trust between the parties. Reaching consensus on key
issues, such as the integration and rehabilitation of the
former Maoist combatants, will be difficult, particularly as
hardliners (Maoists and non-Maoists) dig in their heels.
Prachanda's continuing obsession with the President's May
2009 "unconstitutional move" and demand for a government of

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national unity is also troubling. Forcing out the current
government -- which will not go willingly -- would likely
delay or even stop progress in the peace process.
CAMP