NEPAL: GON STICKS TO FOUR-MONTH UNMIN EXTENSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000029 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2020 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: GON STICKS TO FOUR-MONTH UNMIN EXTENSION REF: 1/12/2010 MCSHARRY-TRENKLE EMAIL Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., John Ordway. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Government of Nepal (GON) is unlikely to agree to a six-month mandate extension for UNMIN and may hold firm on its recommended May 15 date, which is linked to the deadlines for completing the integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants (April 30) and the new constitution (May 28). Even though Nepali leaders know this timeline is unrealistic, they believe accepting UNMIN's presence past May would be seen as an admission that the parties will fail to complete the peace process on time. End Summary. UNMIN's Mandate Tied to Peace Process Deadlines -------------- -- ¶2. (C) During a January 12 meeting with Rajan Bhattarai, Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister M.K. Nepal, Charge encouraged the Government of Nepal to support a six-month mandate extension for UNMIN, per reftel instructions. (Note: Nepal requested a mandate extension of approximately four months to May 15. End Note.) Charge noted that the May 15 extension is logistically complicated for the UN, that mid-May could be a very sensitive time in Nepal's peace process, and that the integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants is unlikely to be complete within this time period. ¶3. (C) Bhattarai said that under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and Interim Constitution, the Constituent Assembly must promulgate a new constitution by May 28, 2010. According to the CPA, the integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants must take place before the promulgation of the new constitution. Bhattarai noted that the Maoists and Government of Nepal recently agreed on an 112-day program to complete the integration and rehabilitation process, ending April 30. Once the integration and rehabilitation is complete, UNMIN has no purpose. The GON's mandate extension request tracks these internal peace process deadlines. ¶4. (C) Requesting a full six-month extension would predetermine the outcome in a way that is prejudicial to the GON's interest in rapidly concluding the peace process, Bhattarai said. He acknowledged that completing the integration and rehabilitation by mid-May will be difficult, but said that government is "not allowed to talk or think beyond May 28" when its own mandate ends. If the political will is there, Bhattarai argued, even one month is enough time to resolve the Maoist combatant issue. ForMin Says GON Can Always Request Extension -------------- ¶5. (C) During a separate January 10 meeting at the Charge's residence, DeputyPM and ForMin Sujata Koirala told Charge that hardliners in the GON wanted an even shorter UNMIN extension -- or no extension at all -- and that she was "lucky" to get four months. She noted that many in the current coalition government view UNMIN as biased in favor of the Maoists. Koirala added that the GON could always extend UNMIN after four months as needed. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) GON leaders know the May deadlines for completing integration/rehabilitation of Maoist combatants and the constitution drafting are unrealistic, but cannot admit so at this sensitive time. The GON leaders likely believe they can extend UNMIN's mandate in May for a couple months -- or more -- perhaps not fully appreciating the UN planning and budgeting cycles and the political issues that overcoming a "final" extension would pose for the UNSC. ORDWAY