KARACHI: LG RESOLUTION LEAVES MUCH TO BE RESOLVED.

C O N F I D E N T I A L KARACHI 000042 SIPDIS REF: KARACHI 40 E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2020 TAGS: PGOV PTER PK SUBJECT: KARACHI: LG RESOLUTION LEAVES MUCH TO BE RESOLVED. Classified by: Consul General Stephen G. Fakan, Reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Concluding an internal deadlock, the Sindh Assembly tabled the Sindh Local Government (Amendment) Bill on February 15, 2010. After many heated exchanges, negotiations and a delay of nearly a year, the amendment received unanimous support for Chief Minister appointed 'Administrators' to look after local government affairs until party based elections are held within a stipulated 120 days. Post gauged reaction among contacts including now Ex-Nazim, Syed Mustafa Kamal. The resolution addresses the tip of a local governance iceberg and will require further amendment prior to implementation for it to be a workable solution. END SUMMARY -------------- SINDH LG AMENDMENT -------------- ¶2. (U) The unanimously agreed upon amendment charges the Chief Minister with appointing 'Administrators' from among the grade 17 - 19 civil servants corps to take over all duties and power of the Nazims until elections are complete. Unlike the current Nazims, the 'Administrators' will answer directly to the Chief Minister and are not answerable to an elected council. Syed Mustafa Kamal, ex-Nazim of Karachi as of February 15, noted that there is an oral agreement to have the 'Administrators' answer to the Governor, but this is not mandated by constitution. PPP holds a list of MQM's preferred 'Administrators' for key cities, and according to Kamal, District Coordinating Officer, Fazlur Rehman, who, despite MQM affiliation, is also sometimes called "Durrani's blue-eyed boy" and may be the Karachi appointee (Note: Agha Siraj Durrani (PPP),Sindh Minister of Local Government took Fazlur Rehman as his protege when Rehman served as Commissioner of Karachi. Rehman has also worked closely with ex-Nazim Syed Mustafa Kamal (MQM) and presents an interesting choice for 'Administrator' as a suitable leadership compromise for both leading parties). -------------- HOW THE TIMELINE SHOULD LOOK -------------- ¶3. (U) The Governor signed the Bill on February 16 and it is possible that the 'Administrators' will be appointed within this week. Within the next 30 days, the provincial government must formally request the elections commission to prepare for elections. In the 30 days following, candidates must submit their names to the commission for scrutiny and approval. Campaigning can only begin after the final candidate list is released, likely in mid-April. In a conversation with Durrani (PPP) on February 12, PolOffs were told, with some confidence, that a resolution would be reached on February 15 (which happened) and that elections would be held on May 25. -------------- WHY IT PROBABLY WON'T -------------- ¶4. (C) COMMENT: The resolution raises more challenges than it addresses. An amendment on the very nature of the electoral process is outstanding; PPP wants a direct election with constituents voting for both their local councilors and the Nazim while MQM wants the constituent-elected councilors to elect a Nazim from the community. ¶5. (C) The opposition is now vocally complaining that they were left out of the lengthy deliberations and is requesting to be taken into confidence onwards. Although Jam Madad Ali, leader of the combined opposition, vows full cooperation for the good of Sindh, they have the power to divide votes and create an electoral imbalance if they choose to retaliate. ¶6. (C) Targeted killings and political violence may uptick as Sindh prepares for party based elections - although all parties appear to want to participate and no boycotts are expected, this new and still vague electoral process leads post to believe that while Durrani's joyful ideal that February 15 was "one of the greatest days in the history of Sindh", it remains to be seen what the optic will be on May 25. END COMMENT. FAKAN