UGANDA: CONTINUED U.S. SUPPORT FOR ANTI-LRA EFFORTS CRITICAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000023 SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/14 TAGS: PREL PINS MOPS MCAP MASS UG SUBJECT: UGANDA: CONTINUED U.S. SUPPORT FOR ANTI-LRA EFFORTS CRITICAL CLASSIFIED BY: Jerry P. Lanier, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (S) Summary: U.S. logistical assistance for Ugandan military operations against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) will end in late-January, jeopardizing Uganda's increasingly successful 800 mile pursuit of the LRA through the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),the Central African Republic (CAR),and Southern Sudan. Since October 2009, U.S. assistance totaling $4.4 million has provided the Ugandan People's Defense Force (UPDF) with logistical and mobility support. This assistance has enabled Uganda to systematically dismantle the LRA to less than 300 remaining fighters, and reduce LRA atrocities against civilian populations. A lapse in U.S. assistance will trigger critical logistical and resupply difficulties that will undermine Uganda's ongoing military campaign. We urgently request continued logistical assistance in support of Operation Lightning Thunder (OLT). End Summary. -------------- U.S. Support for OLT -------------- ¶2. (S) The U.S. has provided $4.4 million in support to the UPDF beginning in October 2009 after Ugandan Chief of Defense Aronda Nyakairima requested assistance with tactical and logistical mobility following the grounding of three MI-17 and three MI-24 helicopters for mandatory repairs. The loss of these helicopters left the UPDF with only one MI-17 helicopter and one MI-24 gunship (which also require servicing),one Cessna observation plane, and one turboprop Y-12 plane to support an estimated 4,000 troops spread over an 800 mile area with little to no road infrastructure. In response, the U.S. provided $2.4 million to transport troops and supplies via trucks and airlift support (C-130 and AN-12 turbo transport planes) . The U.S. allocated an additional $2 million to help the UPDF redirect more resources to refurbishing Ugandan helicopters grounded for maintenance. The UPDF will begin to regain its airlift capability in March 2010 but will not have full capacity until at least September. -------------- Results: Chipping Away at the LRA -------------- ¶3. (S) U.S. support since October has directly contributed to the UPDF's growing successes in dismantling the LRA. The Ugandan military has used the sustained logistical backing to disrupt LRA communications, increase rebel losses, and reduce LRA atrocities against civilians. (Note: Septel will provide data documenting the reduction in LRA attacks on civilians since October. End note). Since the beginning of Operation Lightning Thunder (OLT) in December 2008, Ugandan combat operations have killed 280 LRA fighters, captured 134 LRA fighters, rescued 394 abductees, and recovered 228 weapons. These operations have destroyed an estimated 60% of the LRA and reduced the rebel group to less than 300 fighters. More than a quarter of these results occurred after October 2009 and are directly attributable to U.S. assistance. With U.S. support, the UPDF has made steady progress by rendering the LRA nearly ineffective in DRC and putting increased pressure on the LRA's remaining forces in CAR. Since October, the UPDF has killed two senior LRA leaders - Brigadier General Buk Abudema (Joseph Kony's chief executioner and the fourth ranked LRA officer) and Major Michael Epado (Kony's Communication Officer)- and captured Lieutenant Colonel Charles Arop ( the LRA Chief of Operations). Additionally, the UPDF has killed 38 other LRA members, captured 59, rescued 87 abductees, and recovered 72 LRA weapons. -------------- Impact of Assistance Lapse KAMPALA 00000023 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶4. (S) U.S. logistical assistance will end this month, with the last delivery of fuel scheduled for January 28 and food rations on January 31. The cutoff in U.S. support comes in at a critical moment in the LRA offensive as Joseph Kony continues to position himself just out of the UPDF's reach. Having pushed Kony across two countries and reduced the number of LRA fighters to less than 300, Uganda is closer to eliminating the LRA than ever before in the 23 year history of the conflict. Kony, who appears to be aware of the UPDF's logistical challenges, moved LRA units as far north as Djema, CAR, in November 2009. With U.S. support, Uganda used additional airlift support to reach Kony by lengthening supply lines yet again to position troops and supplies around Djema. According to the UPDF, Ugandan troops directly engaged Kony and his personal security detail in northern CAR on December 6, forcing Kony to move his core group even further northeast - and once again out of Ugandan airlift range - toward the Sudanese border. ¶5. (S) We believe LRA uncertainty about potential support from Khartoum may keep Kony pinned down in northeastern CAR, caught between the Sudanese border to the east, the unpredictable nature of Darfur to the north, and the UPDF to the south and west. Dependent on an 800 mile supply chain, the UPDF will not be able to exploit this opportunity without continued logistical support. Withdrawing support will drastically weaken this resupply chain and render the UPDF ineffective against remaining LRA elements. With Uganda expecting delivery of its repaired helicopters to begin in March and take at least six months to complete, the UPDF will not be able to continue its current pace of operations in the short run without continued U.S. assistance. A lapse in this assistance will also undermine our ongoing intelligence sharing agreement with Uganda as the UPDF will be unable to act on any of the information provided. -------------- -------------- Comment: Continued Assistance Critical -------------- -------------- ¶6. (S) Uganda is as close to eliminating the LRA as it has been since the conflict began 23 years ago. Continued U.S. logistical support is critical for sustaining the success of Ugandan operations since October 2009, and enabling the UPDF to reach Kony as he retreats northward through CAR. The U.S. Mission urgently requests the continuation of current logistical assistance with additional funds commensurate with the UPDF's ever-longer supply chain. LANIER