KARZAI COS: NO NATIONALIZATION OF ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000504

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2020
TAGS: PGOV AF PREL
SUBJECT: KARZAI COS: NO NATIONALIZATION OF ELECTIONS,
RECONCILIATION STRUCTURE NEEDED

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Classified By: PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: President Karzai's Chief of Staff Daudzai
claimed there is no presidential decree in the works to
nationalize the Electoral Complaints Committee (ECC) and that
the law remains as it stands to allow for international
observers to remain on the ECC. However, we have learned that
nationalization is in fact under discussion. In a one-on-one
meeting with Deputy Ambassador Ricciardone on February 7,
Daudzai expressed support for the timeline of upcoming
bilateral events that Ricciardone outlined and particularly
welcomed the proposed SVTC with President Obama and the
Karzai trip to Washington this March. Daudzai also shared
some of the logistical challenges that are standing in the
way of reconciliation efforts, in particular the lack of a
structure to oversee the reconciliation program. End Summary.


2. (C) Explaining that UN SRSG Kai Eide has a list of
candidates whom he would like to nominate for the
international slots on the ECC, Ricciardone said that the
international community would like reassurance from Karzai
that the current structure of the ECC will not be changed so
that they can move forward on these nominations. Daudzai
responded that GIRoA was "far away" from changing the law and
that no presidential decree to change it was being drafted.
While he conceded that nationalizing the ECC was something
GIRoA is considering, he said there was no plan to do so in
the short term. In the absence of a decree, the electoral
law would stay as it is and therefore the ECC structure would
not change. However, in direct contradiction to this
assertion, on February 8, we learned that the Electoral Law
and a decree amending it were discussed in the Cabinet, with
a follow up discussion to be held on February 11. The decree
may be fast-tracked so that it is issued before Parliament
returns February 20.


3. Daudzai advised that Eide should go ahead and make his
recommendations to Karzai for candidates for the ECC. If it
were to happen, Ricciardone cautioned, nationalization of the
ECC would become the focus of Karzai's trip to Washington and
would negatively impact the bilateral relationship.
Ricciardone further expressed the US hope that Karzai will
replace Ludin with a strong, credible figure prior to his
trip to the US. Karzai will work in consultation with
Parliament on finding a replacement for Ludin and other IEC
issues, Daudzai reported. Identifying a replacement will have
to wait until parliament is back in session on February 20.

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Reconciliation -- Structure Needed
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4. (C) Addressing another top GIRoA priority, Daudzai
stressed the importance of creating the mechanisms needed to
support their reconciliation effort. Normally the National
Security Advisor (NSA) would be charged with such a project,
and the lack of an NSA has impeded progress, Daudzai said. If
former Foreign Minister Rangeen Spanta is named to the post,
he is unlikely to spearhead this issue, Daudzai said, because
it is not his area of expertise. Both Daudzai and
Ricciardone discussed the recent denunciation of the Taliban
by the Shinwari tribe as a learning experience for the US and
for GIRoA on how to best handle reconciliation on a local
level. While speculating that Nangahar governor Gul Agha
Sherzai was involved in the reconciliation of the Shinwari,
Daudzai expressed frustration that there was insufficient
coordination between GIRoA and the Shinwari. GIRoA must have
a policy on paper, Daudzai asserted, to guide its actions in
cases like this. In the absence of a clear road map, key
decision makers will be acting on their own counsel.
Similarly, Ricciardone expressed the lack of clarity among US
forces on how to respond when approached by local leaders who
would like to reconcile, especially if they express lack of
confidence in GIRoA. As Karzai develops his organization for
reconciliation efforts, human and women's rights must be
accounted for, Ricciardone said.


5. (C) Daudzai cited the complexity of the modern Taliban as
a factor that confuses GIRoA's approach to reconciliation.
Norway recently launched an initiative to start talks with
the Quetta Shura, he said, but GIRoA doubts whether the
people whom Norway met with were legitimate Taliban. He said
that he is not aware of any attempt to reach out to the
Haqqani network right now, but said that GIRoA has a program
to reach out to Hekmatyar. As Hekmatyar ages, Daudzai
speculated, he is becoming more willing to leave behind a
peaceful legacy. If Hekmatyar reconciles, all of his people
will follow behind him, Daudzai said.


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6. (C) As GIRoA moves forward on reconciliation, it is
mindful of the impact such efforts may have on regional
relations, Daudzai said. All of Afghanistan's neighbors have
different agendas when it comes to reconciliation, and
Daudzai did not see a consensus emerging amongst
Afghanistan's neighbors on reconciliation. Reconciliation
makes Iran and Pakistan very nervous, he said. Iran wants
the Taliban out, he said, but they don't want a US victory,
while the Russians want the Taliban to be defeated, but not
for the US to withdraw from Afghanistan as a result. When
confronting these conflicting concerns, Daudzai said, it is
all the more essential that GIRoA develop a clear plan on
reconciliation.
Eikenberry