NAD ALI/MARJAH OPERATION: STABILIZATION PLANNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000466 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM, INR/B STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS UK AF SUBJECT: NAD ALI/MARJAH OPERATION: STABILIZATION PLANNING ENTERING FINAL PHASE REF: A. (A) KABUL 115 ¶B. (B) 09 KABUL 4187 KABUL 00000466 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Interagency Provincial Affairs Deputy Director Hoyt Yee for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Planning for the stabilization effort that will follow upcoming military operations in Helmand's Nad Ali District is entering the final phase. The PRT is nearing completion of plans to expand the existing GIRoA footprint in Nad Ali North (U.K. area of operations) and in Nad Ali South, also known as Marjah (U.S. area of operations). The PRT has coordinated planning for security and development resources among the PRT, both the U.S. and UK Task Forces based in Helmand, and Regional Command)South (RC-S). This effort produced a detailed stabilization plan with sufficient resources to move Nad Ali away from insurgent control. There remains serious concern regarding the long term training and staffing of sufficient police forces, but GIRoA officials will have an opportunity to reestablish government control over all of Nad Ali District. U.S civilians at the Helmand PRT, the Nadi Ali District Support Team (DST) and embedded with the Marines are playing a leading role in this operation. End Summary. Governance -------------- ¶2. (C) GIRoA officials and ISAF are presently conducting a series of briefings, Rehearsal of Concept (ROC) drills and shuras to prepare for the operation. Most critical are two events in which Afghan officials are finalizing their parts of the stabilization and service delivery plans. On February 1, the PRT's governance team, in conjunction with the Provincial Governor's Office, mentored a ROC drill for GIRoA line ministry and district officials. This exercise followed a mid-January Nad Ali District Delivery Plan (DDP) workshop held in Lashkar Gah with provincial and district officials and walked through the mechanisms for operationalizing delivery of the services outlined in the Nad Ali DDP. Unlike previous clearance operations, Helmand officials, with strong support from the Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) and the PRT, are taking the lead in delivering services and are working with the Civil Service Commission to fill district civil service vacancies with needed officials, including extra staff for Marjah. This is an ongoing process, but the PRT governance team and the Governor's office are working together to establish an effective Afghan governance presence across Nad Ali. After his return from leave in India, Helmand Governor Mangal will review the GIRoA stabilization and DDP effort and use these products to guide the Afghan and international forces involved in the operation. Nad Ali Political Engagement -------------- ¶3. (C) While Mangal is away, Deputy Governor Sattar has assumed the GIRoA lead on political engagement with influential elders and others critical to the success of the stabilization phase. PRT officers, in cooperation with elements of the U.S. Marine Task Force Leatherneck (TFL) and the U.K. Task Force Helmand (TFH),are continuing key leader engagements to understand the social landscape in Nad Ali, secure buy-in for future GIRoA presence and identify tribal and local leaders willing to help after the clear phase. ¶4. (C) At this point most of this work is done, but the PRT is continuing to meet with these leaders to maintain and solidify relationships. The PRT is also working with the Governor's Office, as well as TFL and TFH, to convene critical shuras ahead of operations. Specifically, they are working to arrange a shura that will pull together Nad Ali District Governor Habibullah, Nad Ali Deputy District Governor (for Marjah) Haji Zahir and important Marjah elders to cement Haji Zahir's credibility with those elders so that he will be recognized as the GIRoA lead in Marjah. Plans are also forming to convene a shura, upon Governor Mangal's return, with a wide range of Nad Ali and Marjah elders, as well as the Commanding Generals of TFL and TFH. This shura will be primarily an opportunity for the generals to reinforce ongoing messages, urging people not to fight and touting the development and employment opportunities that will follow GIRoA presence. Policing Remains a Challenge -------------- ¶5. (C) With military operations approaching, there remains a lack of clarity regarding the length of the planned deployment of the Afghan National Civil Order Police's (ANCOP) in Marjah. Due to strong ties between Helmand's KABUL 00000466 002.2 OF 002 Afghan National Police (ANP) contingent and malign actors with strong links to Marjah, ANCOP will be deployed into Marjah instead of the ANP. The initial request was for 900 ANCOP to be deployed to Nad Ali for six months but the latest information from the Ministry of Interior (MoI) is that the 900-man force will be available for only four months, possibly as little as three months. ¶6. (C) Failure to maintain the ANCOP presence for an adequate period would be a serious setback for the hold phase of the operation and will not provide sufficient time for TFH and TFL to properly train the new ANP force that is scheduled to relieve the ANCOP force. This situation is made worse by the failure of the MoI to appoint a Nad Ali Chief of Police or a deputy for the Marjah area. Until these issues are addressed by the MoI the long term security of the cleared areas will remain a serious challenge to the provincial leadership of Helmand. Media Plan -------------- ¶7. (C) In order to better engage with local and international media during the operation, and to present a unified civilian-military face to the operation, the Senior Civilian Representative for RC-South Frank Ruggiero will travel to Lashkar Gah with RC-South Commander Major General Nick Carter on the eve of the operation to convene the shura with Afghan elders. The RP-South strategic communications advisor will coordinate media requests from the forward Media Operations Center, in conjunction with Afghan officials. State Department and USAID civilians with the Marines will have clearance to speak with media on governance and stabilization activities, as will officers stationed at the Regional Command Team (RCT) and at the PRT. We will distribute talking points on major topics that our civilians will likely encounter so as to more effectively spread the message of the stabilization efforts that will follow on the clearing operations. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The planning for the Nad Ali stabilization has been a full court effort by the PRT and the Helmand Governor's office, as well as TFH and TFL. The plan addresses the stabilization needs of the Nad Ali area with the best information available and the PRT and the Governor's office have asked and received additional resources to address requests as they arise. We will continue to press the MOI to ensure that the ANCOP remains in Nad Ali for at least six months after the clearing operations to allow the U.S. and UK forces to train the ANP designated for the district. The PRT is prepared to forward deploy State and USAID to begin the governance and stabilization as soon as clearing operations are completed. Eikenberry