IEC POSTPONES PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000245 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF SUBJECT: IEC POSTPONES PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS REF: KABUL 4147 Classified By: PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Independent Election Commission (IEC) announced on January 24 that the Parliamentary elections would be postponed until September 18 due to lack of funding, security, and logistic support. On January 23 the President held a meeting at the Palace with Ambassador Eikenberry and D/Ambassador Ricciardone, UNSRSG Kai Eide, and key GIRoA officials to discuss the issue of an election delay and the reasons for it. He attempted to elicit a promise of UN and USG funding for the election in exchange for a delay. The Deputy Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament, present at the meeting, came to the Embassy afterwards to explain what took place during Dari/Pashtu parts of the meeting and to express his concerns about Karzai's attempt to take funds from the treasury for his own election, and his and Parliament's urging that Ludin be removed. Meanwhile, the status of the IEC Chairman Azizullah Ludin is in question; his tenure should have expired, and IEC sources were claiming on January 23 that Karzai would reappoint him to a three year term. The palace has denied that report regarding Karzai's intent, but also denies that Ludin's term has expired. End Summary. -------------- Announcing a Delay -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a January 24 press conference IEC Commissioner Fazal Ahamad Manawi announced a four month delay of the Afghan parliamentary elections, originally scheduled for May 22 and now planned for September 18, 2010. Manawi reportedly cited lack of funding, security issues, and logistical problems as the major reasons for the delay, while local and international press reports stressed the lack of funding from the international community as the major impediment. The IEC announced that it needed about $50M from the international community to pay for the parliamentary election, estimated by the IEC to cost $120M. (Note: The current UNDP/ELECT estimate is $160M. End Note.) The Minister of Finance had told Karzai in December that the Treasury had funds available for the GIRoA to pay $50M toward its own election and therefore did not need international assistance (reftel). In both cases the GIRoA is assuming it will have access to the $70M in donor funds presumed to remain in UNDP/ELECT's budget from the 2009 election. The IEC officially requested these funds from UNDP/ELECT on January 5. -------------- The Back Story: Finding the Right Reason -------------- ¶3. (S) The day before the IEC,s postponement announcement, Ambassador Eikenberry, D/Amb Ricciardone, and UNAMA SRSG Eide attended a Palace meeting chaired by Karzai and attended by both Vice Presidents, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Mirwais Yasini, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, heads of the Political Commissions from the Upper and Lower House, the former and present Ministers of Justice, the President,s Chief of Staff, and the Acting Tribal/Border Affairs Minister. In addition, IEC Chairman Ludin and Deputy Chief Electoral Officer Barakzai attended. By our reading of Afghan law (and UNAMA's),Chairman Ludin,s term ended that same day, January 23, but we learned that afternoon from IEC sources that the President was planning to re-appoint him. As of late January 24, after interventions by the UN, US, and others, Karzai's Chief of Staff Daudzai has told us that Ludin's term has not/not expired, and that Karzai has taken no decision regarding replacing him or extending his tenure. Karzai would not take any such decisions "at least for some weeks," pending an internal GIRoA-IEC "review of lessons learned from the 2009 elections." ¶4. (S) Karzai convened the January 24 meeting to discuss the delay in the election date, in part responding to Parliament,s charge to Speaker Qanooni (currently out of the country) to meet with the executive and judicial branches to discuss timing and reforms. Karzai staged a discussion, about the pros and cons of a delay, theatrically at times acknowledging that this whole conversation was "illegal" or "against the constitution" but accepting the IEC,s argument that, although their plans were in place to hold elections in May they could not meet this timetable because they had no money. Both the Parliament (which had denied a budget request for the IEC in late December) and the UN (which received a request for funds by letter January 5 but still has not accounted to donors for its expenditures in 2009) were blamed for the lack of funds. KABUL 00000245 002 OF 002 ¶5. (S) Ambassador Eikenberry said that the reasons for delay that the international community could support would be 1-logistics, 2-security, 3-budget and 4-the need for improvements to the elections process. On security, he pointed out that with the increase in ISAF forces and operations it was likely that more of the country would be secure by fall. SRSG Eide said it was important that this be a collaborative process. Karzai at one point bristled at the idea of reforms and asked "is this General Morillon,s language?" referring to the former head of the EU Observer Mission who had allegedly insulted Karzai by his comments about fraud. At another point he claimed that the international community had been trying to delay elections until 2011. ¶6. (S) Karzai asked if the international community would respond to the delay announcement by announcing their intention to fund the elections fully ("so we don,t have to go back to Parliament") and Eikenberry and Eide refused, saying those details have to be discussed at another time and that improvements to the process would be important; Eide noted that "we need to be consulted." The meeting concluded with the decision to postpone elections until "just after Ramadan (and Eid)." The IEC later chose September 18, five years to the day from the last Parliamentary polls. ¶7. (S) The IEC indicated to us that they may take the current 120-day timetable, which is extremely compressed, and lengthen it given their four-month reprieve. One positive change they are contemplating is increasing the time that will be given for candidate vetting. We have also seen a new anti-fraud strategy that the professional IEC staff drafted. It has not been approved by Ludin and the other Commissioners but would constitute real progress in many technical areas. ¶8. (S) At a drafting session with UN and UK officials, Deputy Chief Electoral Officer Barakzai complained that not only had they been let down by Parliament and the UN for funds, the Minister of Finance had told the President in December that he could find $50M and that is why they went ahead with their announcement with no consultation with donors. Later, the Finance Ministry only asked Parliament for $10M - and that was turned down on the grounds that "they should have foreseen this expense." Barakzai disagreed with us when we said that the right way forward was funding from both internationals and their own Parliament, saying that Parliament is "too bureaucratic." -------------- --- Parliament and the "foreigners" on the same side -------------- --- ¶9. (S) Later on January 23, Yasini came to the Embassy to share his concerns and to clarify some of what had occurred during the meeting while the participants spoke in Pashtu and Dari. He said that Karzai appeared out of touch, for example uninformed about the fact that Parliament had rejected the budget. Yasini said the reason Karzai,s budget was not passed was because the Parliament was upset that 50 million Afghanis had been transferred illegally from budget code 21 to code 22 - making these funds Karzai,s discretionary funds. Yasini says these funds were used illegally for Karzai's re-election. ¶10. (S) Yasini said that on at least four occasions Karzai had said, in Dari and Pashto, "we are not independent" and that the "foreigners" are interfering. He said Karzai asked them to stop interpreting at a certain point, since he did not want the foreigners to hear when he said the question of IEC leadership was "internal, and will be discussed separately." Karzai told Yasini not to speak in English in front of the foreigners. Also, Karzai did not want the internationals to hear that he did not want the foreigners in the ECC to remain (Note: We could understand this because it was in Dari and fairly obvious - we know that he is planning to change the Electoral Law to this end. End Note.) Yasini claimed he would not run for re-election if internationals were not allowed on the board, as it would further ensure election fraud. Karzai also claimed (twice) that the Parliament was working for the internationals. ¶11. (S) Yasini claimed the Chief Justice and VP Khalili kissed him on the forehead, in a deferential gesture of thanks and respect after the meeting, and thanked him for underscoring the importance of replacing Ludin. Yasini said he told Karzai this request to replace Ludin was made unanimously by Parliament - MP Akbari further confirmed this. We informed Yasini that we had heard that Ludin would be retained. In an interview with Tolo TV later that day he said that the IEC Chair and Commissioners all need to be removed, without using Ludin's name. EIKENBERRY