SECURITY MINISTERS PRESS FOR ARMY/POLICE GROWTH TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000113 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MASS AF SUBJECT: SECURITY MINISTERS PRESS FOR ARMY/POLICE GROWTH TO 400,000; CITE ANT-CORRUPTION SUCCESSES Classified By: POLITICAL-MILITARY COUNSELOR PHILIP KOSNETT FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) & (d) SUMMARY: -------------- ¶1. (C/REL ISAF) During a January 6 meeting with CODEL McCain, Afghanistan's Defense and Interior Ministers pressed for continued growth in the army (ANA) and police (ANP) to a combined total of 400,000 personnel. Interior Minister Mohammed Hanif Atmar also noted his Ministry's progress in fighting corruption, while Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak stressed the need for "enablers" -- equipment for air and ground mobility, and counter-IED capabilities -- in order to make the ANA "completely independent." Finance Minister Zakhiwal noted that continued donor support for the security sector was critical lest it consume Afghanistan's budget. National Directorate for Security Chief Dr. Amrullah Saleh said 2010 would be the most violent year of the war yet, with insurgents targeting Kabul in an attempt to undermine the government. CODEL McCain said many in Congress would support the the 400,000 figure, and advised the Ministers to keep growing and reforming their forces. END SUMMARY. AFGHAN SECURITY MINISTERS SEEK GROWTH TO 400K -------------- ¶2. (C/REL ISAF) Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak noted that growth in the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) "is accelerating, but the 400,000 figure we were expecting, was the result of much analysis; we were disappointed when it was not announced." (NOTE: Wardak referred to the U.S Combined Security Transition Command - Afghanistan (CSTC-A)'s fall 2009 plan to grow the Afghan Army to 240,000 personnel and the Afghan Police to 160,000 by October 2013. In December, CSTC-A and its successor, the NATO Training Mission Afghanistan (NTM-A) announced a more modest objective of 134,000 (Army) and 109,000 (police) by October 2010, and a "goal" of 171,600 (army) 134,000 (police) by October 2011, with further growth dependent on ISAF's future assessments of the security situation. END NOTE.) Wardak claimed that the MoD would achieve the 134,000 target figure two months ahead of schedule, and further growth "should not be stopped" when it did. Senators Lieberman and McCain noted that there is considerable support in Congress for reaching the 400k figure, and that the Afghan forces should continue growing and reforming, avoiding preoccupation with ceilings. ¶3. (C/REL ISAF) Minister Wardak noted that the ANSF led 65% of operations this year, but were still dependent on ISAF for critical "enablers" -- equipment for air and ground mobility, and counter-IED technology and training. He predicted that the Afghan Army would take the lead on all operations within five years, and could achieve "complete independence" were the ANA to acquire its own "enablers." ¶4. (C/REL ISAF) Interior Minister Atmar shared his four priorities: police reform, restructuring, growth and anti-corruption. He said the police force is trying to find the right balance between counter-insurgency and crime fighting by strengthening the paramilitary "Afghan Gendarmerie" and re-focusing other police on crime fighting. Atmar was "glad to hear" that there was still U.S. support for the 400k figure, noting that his ministry has a plan for growing the police portion of that force to 160k, but needs the international community to make resource decisions now if he is to achieve it. He noted that building the facilities and training the leaders for a larger force needs considerable lead time, so ministries and NTM-A need to make plans now to enable future growth. Atmar admitted that ANSF fiscal sustainability still depends on donor contributions, and will for many years yet, a point underscored by Finance Minister Zakhiwal. While Zakhiwal noted that domestic revenue collection had increased by 65% over the last nine months, Afghanistan also faced a 35-40% increase in security sector expenditures in 2009. Without donor support for the security sector, those costs would overwhelm Zakhiwal's goal of financing the rest of Afghanistan's budget out of domestic revenues within five years. MINISTER ATMAR: FIGHTING POLICE CORRUPTION -------------- ¶5. (C/REL ISAF) In response to Senator McCain's question, Atmar stressed his Ministry's progress in rooting out police corruption. Atmar said he is focusing on improving systems (financial management, procurement and weapons accountability); training and public awareness; and, punishment for offenders. Atmar claimed that most policemen are now registered for electronic funds transfer, preventing their superiors from siphoning off their salaries. NOTE: KABUL 00000113 002 OF 002 NTM-A differs, noting that many policemen in the south and east are not yet registered. END NOTE NTM-A/MoI's joint "personnel assets inventory" is drug-testing, bio-metrically registering, and confirming the presence of policemen throughout the country. The PAI's preliminary, unconfirmed results show 90-107% of authorized police present for duty in the eight eastern and southern provinces inventoried thus far. NOTE: These high numbers reflect the deployment to the south and east of some police normally stationed in other provinces. Those numbers could be offset by lower numbers in other provinces when the PAI reaches them. END NOTE ¶6. (C/REL ISAF) Atmar praised the U.S./UK-supported Major Crimes Task Force for its role in bringing corrupt officials to justice. He noted that the MoI dismissed or prosecuted 15% of its senior officers and over 300 patrolmen and junior officers for corruption during his tenure. High-profile successes included a Major General who was fired and is being prosecuted, and a Colonel sentenced to 20 years in prison for corruption. Illegal road tolls, he claimed, are down by 80%, though minor bribery is still a problem. Atmar cited the December 2009 UNDP "Police Perceptions Survey" and the 2009 Asia Foundation "Survey of the Afghan People," both of which showed higher than expected public trust in the police; and remarked that his own recent confirmation by Parliament could be read as a statement of public faith in the progress the MoI is making. AFGHAN INTELLIGENCE PREDICTS MORE VIOLENCE IN 2010, AND MORE OF IT IN KABUL: -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C/REL ISAF) National Directorate for Security Chief Dr. Amrullah Saleh told the CODEL that 2010 would be "more violent" than 2009, and that Kabul will become the most violent part of Afghanistan as the Haqqani network and Quetta Shura Taliban have decided to target the capital in order to destabilize the government. Saleh predicted that the two insurgent groups would devote most of their suicide attackers to Kabul. He accused Pakistan of "allowing a safe place" for the Haqqani network and Afghan Taliban fighters, reserving their military assaults for the Terik-e-Taliban Pakistan. COMMENT: -------------- ¶8. (C/REL ISAF) While Afghanistan's security ministers will always press the international community for as large a force structure as the IC is willing to fund, NTM-A's plan for deliberate growth influenced by periodic re-assessments of the security situation makes more sense than targets fixed four years into the future. The International Police Coordination Board met on January 12, and members agreed that the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board should approve the next increment of police growth -- to 109,000 by October ¶2010. However, the ministers will continue to lobby, and may try to work around formal donor limits on the security sector. Even when CSTC-A was planning for ANP growth to 160k by 2013, Atmar pressed for 170k or more formal police, and sought to further augment his force with up to 40,000 "public guards" (to be paid by customers in lieu of Afghan private security companies). Atmar continues to advance the public guard concept, and a "Local Defense Initiative" (septel) as well. Both forces would come under MoI authority, but neither would be paid by the donor-financed "Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan" (LOTFA). ¶9. (U) CODEL McCain ) Senators John McCain, Joseph Lieberman, John Thune, and John Barrasso ) did not clear this cable. EIKENBERRY