BI-WEEKLY REPORT ON ECONOMIC ISSUES, FEBRUARY 3, 2010

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 000410



SENSITIVE

SIPDIS



REF: ISLAMABAD 189



E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: ECON, ETRD, EFIN, EAGR, EINV, ENRG, PREL, PK

SUBJ: BI-WEEKLY REPORT ON ECONOMIC ISSUES, FEBRUARY 3, 2010



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TOP STORIES

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1. (SBU) Ministry of Finance concerned over the declining tax-to-GDP

ratio. On February 2 Business Recorder reported that, according to

the Finance Ministry's 2009-2010 Fiscal Policy Statement, at the end

of FY 09, Pakistan's s tax-to-GDP ratio stood at 8.8 percent, with

revenue collection totaling $13.6 billion. This represents a 1

percent drop compared to the previous fiscal year. The government

has set a target of $16 billion for FY 10 tax collections. This

would entail a 19.3 percent increase from FY09. Ministry of Finance

officials said that the creation of the new Inland Revenue Service,

Pakistan's IRS, would help streamline the process of introducing the

value-added tax (VAT),a step towards increasing tax collection.

(Comment: These revenue targets are ambitious given the current

domestic and international economic environment and GOP's track

record. The GOP has yet to make much headway on the VAT, and the

National Assembly has yet to pass the enabling legislation for it.

End Comment.)



2. (SBU) National Assembly passes Anti-Money Laundering Bill (AML)

2009. On January 28 The Nation reported that the bill was approved

by the National Assembly on January 27, but the Senate and President

have yet to clear on it. Under the proposed legislation, violators

could face fines of up to $12,000 and jail terms of one to ten

years. (Comment: The Financial Monitoring Unit (FMU),Pakistan's

equivalent to a Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU),is already

functioning and operating under the revised AML Ordinance of 2009,

which closely meets international standards. The AML bill passed by

the National Assembly is identical to the AML Ordinance President

Zardari signed in November 2009. End Comment.)



3. (SBU) Government may cut the Public Sector Development Program

(PSDP) by 50 percent. On January 26 Business Recorder reported that

the Ministry of Finance may cut the $4.97 billion currently

allocated in the budget to fund 2010 PSDP projects in half. This

proposed funding cut is due to the GOP's lack of liquidity

attributed to an increase in defense spending and the delayed
<br />disbursement of Coalition Support Funds from the United States.

(Comment: The PSDP includes substantial funds for infrastructural

development. If implemented, this massive cut in development

expenditures will serve as an additional deterrent for investors and

slow economic growth. End Comment.)



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4. (SBU) State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) unveils FY10 monetary policy.

On January 31 The News reported that, amidst fears of rising

inflation and limited liquidity, the SBP is maintaining its policy

rate at 12.5 percent. According to the Governor of the SBP, average

inflation is expected to hover between 11 and 12 percent this fiscal

year. SBP officials expressed hope that a decrease in

Non-Performing Loans would strengthen the banks' confidence in the

private sector and in turn increase private sector lending.

(Comment: Increases in international commodity prices and the recent

phase out of electricity subsidies could exacerbate inflation moving

forward. End Comment)



5. (SBU) Lack of water may significantly reduce Punjab's next wheat

harvest. On January 29 Business Recorder reported that farmers are

increasingly concerned by the winter season dry spell. Punjab's

wheat crop could be as much as 4 million tons below this year's

target due to a lack of sufficient irrigation water. (Comment: The

Indus River System Authority is expected to announce provincial

water allotments in the coming weeks. Punjab government officials

believe that demand for irrigation will exceed supply by at least 30

percent this season. End Comment.)



6. (SBU) Punjab may have trouble purchasing the 2010 wheat crop. On

January 26, Dawn reported that the province borrowed over $1.76

billion in 2009 to purchase wheat from local farmers at record high

prices. Punjab has repaid only $ 300 million of the debt

accumulated from last year's purchases, jeopardizing the province's

ability to secure financing for its 2010 purchases. Punjab's Food

Department has already spent $360 million on various subsidies this

fiscal year. (Comment: It is the Punjab government's policy to

purchase stocks of wheat for sale, at a subsidized rate, to flour

mills annually. With mounting debt and limited income, Punjab may

not be able to continue acting as a broker for the domestic wheat

market. End Comment.)



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POWER & WATER

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7. (SBU) The Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) to offer up $50

million worth of company shares. On January 22 Business Recorder

reported that KESC struck this deal with the Asian Development Bank

and the International Finance Corporation in an attempt to settle



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the $324 million debt that it owes to both international financial

institutions. (Comment: Contacts at the KESC confirmed that this

deal is in the works, but still in its preliminary stages. End

Comment.)



8. (SBU) 4Gas to set up floating LNG terminal at Port Qasim. On

January 28 Business Recorder reported that the Minister for

Petroleum and Natural Resources announced that the Economic

Coordination Committee gave the green light to American-owned 4Gas

to establish a floating LNG terminal at Port Qasim in Karachi. In

five years, 4Gas will establish an $800 million fixed terminal at

the port to manage the long term import of LNG to Pakistan. The

floating terminal's capacity is 3.5 million tons per annum of LNG,

and the terminal is expected to be up and running by December 2011.

(Comment: The GOP's approval was a direct result of the promise of

OPIC financing for the project. The GOP has not yet approved the

second, landed phase, of the project nor secured gas supplies for

it. End Comment.)



9. (SBU) Cabinet rejects proposal to purchase 30 million energy

saving bulbs. According to a January 22 article in The News,

members of the Cabinet refused to sign off on this $82 million

project because of the exorbitant costs of the compact fluorescent

light lamps. Under this 10-year joint Asian Development Bank/

Agence Francaise de Development investment program, the GOP would

distribute the bulbs to residential consumers free of charge, to

replace existing incandescent bulbs. The expectation was that this

initiative would help utility companies reduce peak demand by about

1,100 MW, and cut energy consumption by about 2,500 GWh per year.

(Comment: Contacts at the ADB believe the project will still go

forward in spite of the GOP's concerns. End Comment.)







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TRANSPORTATION

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10 (SBU) Another airline leaves Pakistan. On January 21, The News

reported that, effective February 17, Singapore Airlines will

suspend its flights from Karachi and Lahore. This decision comes in

response to growing security concerns, which have scared away the

small number of tourists and business travelers previously flying to

Pakistan. Industry representatives indicated that the absence of a



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GOP policy to promote the aviation industry has exacerbated the

problem. Currently, out of the 42 airports in country, 18 are

functional and of these 9 are equipped to cater to international

traffic. (Comment: Singapore Airlines officials confirmed the news

and said that they are completely suspending their Pakistan

operations as they no longer view the country as an attractive

market. End Comment.)



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STOCK MARKET

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11. (SBU) Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). The KSE 100 Index ended the

week of January 29 at 9,632.76, down 1.5 percent from the previous

week's close. Overall market capitalization decreased slightly from

$32.97 to $32.45 billion, with net foreign portfolio investment

outflow of $1.32 million. Market activity was primarily driven by

foreign participants, who invested because of attractive prices in

the domestic market compared to other South Asian markets. The

SBP's decision not to change its policy rate failed to buoy the

market as most investors had already anticipated the move.

(Comment: The stock market remained volatile due to the large sale

of stocks in the regional markets. The depreciation of the

Pakistani rupee also negatively affected the stock exchange's

performance. End Comment.)



12. (SBU) Lahore Stock Exchange (LSE). According to Business

Recorder, banking and oil stocks pulled the LSE down 2.45 percent in

the second half of January, but the index continued to hover around

3,000. Volume and trading were relatively light.



PATTERSON