PAKISTAN -- SIX MONTH MACROECONOMIC REVIEW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000318 C O R R E C T E D C O P Y REMOVE SENSITIVE CAPTION SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EAID PGOV PK SUBJECT: PAKISTAN -- SIX MONTH MACROECONOMIC REVIEW ISLAMABAD 00000318 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) Summary: Pakistan's economy is poised to stage a modest recovery, turning in a GDP growth rate of nearly 3 percent in Pakistan's 2010 fiscal year (FY10). There was a sharp drop in consumer price inflation in the first half of the fiscal year, but in coming months, as global commodity prices spike and domestic electricity subsidies are phased out, the inflation rate is likely to pick up again. Trade and current account balances improved substantially, despite a fall in exports, thanks to a dramatic decline in imports in the first half of the fiscal year. While foreign direct investment dropped significantly, a substantial increase in remittances still managed to support the balance of payments. As mandated by IMF conditions, the GOP contained its borrowings from the central bank for budgetary support, but instead turned to massive borrowings from commercial banks, washing out any benefits from restrained central bank borrowings. Other sources of concern for the IMF during its up-coming review will likely be Pakistan's on-going shortfall in tax collection, huge borrowings from banks for commodity financing and massive cuts in development expenditures to finance defense spending. Overall, the large build up in external and domestic debt remains the primary risk to Pakistan's economic stability and prospects for economic growth. End Summary. - - - - - - - - GDP Growth Rate - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) currently projects that the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Pakistani FY10 (Note: July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010) will likely be between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent. If these projections bear out, the GDP growth rate will be close to the annual target of 3.3 percent and will also be higher than the 2.0 percent growth seen in FY09. The SBP expects that the services sector will be the driving force behind this growth. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Major Economic Indicators - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (U) Some key economic indicators improved in the first half of the current fiscal year as compared to the previous year. Remittances continued to surge and reached $4.53 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year, growing by 24.4 percent. The SBP estimates workers' remittances will total between $7.8 billion and $8.8 billion in FY10. A decrease in the trade deficit and this growth in remittances both contributed to the massive decline in the current account deficit from $7.84 billion in July 2009 billion to $1.75 billion in December. A revival in import demand from the manufacturing sector and rising commodity prices may limit the improvement in the current account balance going forward. Although both exports and imports are down, the fall in imports more than balanced the drop in exports. In the first half of FY10, exports decreased by 7.8 percent from the same period last year, falling from $10.09 billion to $9.3 billion, while imports dropped by 17.9 percent from 18.3 billion to $15 billion. Total exports are projected to range between $18.5 billion and $19 billion, while imports are likely to range between $30.5 billion and $31 billion in FY10. Exports showed a 13 percent year-on-year increase in December, which, if sustained, bodes well for Pakistan's trade balance. - - - - - - Inflation - - - - - - ¶4. (U) Average consumer price inflation has decreased significantly to 10.3 percent in the first half of FY10 from 24.4 percent in the same period last year. Tight monetary policy and sharply controlled monetization of the fiscal deficit eased the demand pressures that have plagued the economy in the previous three years, reducing the inflation rate sharply. The SBP, however, projects that the inflation rate will be between 10 and 12 percent in FY10, exceeding the annual target of 9 percent for the year. Rising international fuel prices and cuts in electricity subsides have led the GOP to adjust the prices of key fuels upward, which should strengthen inflationary pressures. ¶5. (U) A major economic challenge for Pakistan is the improvement of the tax-to-GDP ratio. Tax collection has only increased 4.7 percent year-on-year during the first half of FY10 and the Federal Board of ISLAMABAD 00000318 002 OF 003 Revenue Chairman Sohail Ahmet told Emboffs that his organization will not be able to meet the tax target agreed to with the IMF. Identifying tax exemptions and a slowdown in economic growth as the major reasons for the expected shortfall in tax collection, he cited the example of the sugar industry, which has been exempted from taxes this year in order to lower sugar prices. Total tax revenues stood at $6.87 billion in the first half of FY10, compared to $6.56 billion in the same period last year. (Note: In FY09, the tax-to-GDP ratio dropped by 1 percentage point from FY08 to 8.8 percent. End Note.) - - - - - - - - Fiscal Deficit - - - - - - - - ¶6. (U) The SBP projects that the fiscal deficit will range between 4.7 percent of GDP to 5.2 percent of GDP. The GOP contained its borrowings from the SBP and retired $266 million of debt to the central bank between July 1, 2009 and January 9, 2010, compared to borrowings of more than $3.36 billion in the same period last year. This restrained borrowing only applied to the SBP, however, as the GOP borrowed nearly $2.43 billion from commercial banks between July 1, 2009 and January 9, 2010, compared to the retirement of $231 million in the same period last year. - - - - - - - - - - FDI on the Decline - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (U) Foreign direct investment (FDI) is down by 57 percent to $1.01 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year compared to $2.35 billion in the same period last year. Finance Ministry contacts maintain that two large transactions in the telecom and banking sectors artificially inflated FDI last year (Note: the purchases of Instaphone and Union Bank. End note.) Portfolio investment has performed well, up by 244.5 percent to $272.1 million in the first half of the current fiscal year versus a loss of 188.3 million in the same period last year. ¶8. (U) Thanks in large part to the IMF Stand-by Arrangement, Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have improved substantially, moving from a low of $3.52 billion in October 2008 to $11.4 billion in January 2010. Unrealized expectations of foreign economic assistance, however, have left foreign reserves lower than anticipated. Also concerning is a buildup in domestic and foreign debt. Pakistan's external debt rose to $53.79 billion in September 2009 from $44.46 billion in the same period last year, while domestic debt rose to $50.82 billion in December 2009 from $42.24 billion in the same period last year. This large build up in debt could compromise Pakistan's economic stability and future economic growth. - - - - - - IMF Review - - - - - - ¶9. (U) The areas most likely to raise IMF concerns during the February 8-15 review are the shortfall in tax collection and excessive GOP borrowings for commodity operations. Tax collection has fallen short of the target by 25 percent in the first half of the current fiscal year. The GOP believes it will be able to reduce future shortfalls through new measures such as the Audit Plan and the Tax Enforcement Plan, which includes provisions for identifying and prosecuting the estimated 8,000 tax evaders who spend large amounts on foreign travel, but do not pay taxes in Pakistan. However, Finance Ministry sources anticipate that tax collection will decrease by between $95 million and $120 million due to the Supreme Court's revision in the oil pricing formula. ¶10. (U) The GOP has borrowed the huge amount of $3.6 billion for commodity operations, which has increased public sector exposure and crowded private sector credit. Since public sector organizations carry out commodity operations, including the purchase of wheat and sugar, the large borrowings effectively increased the GOP's contingent liabilities and will be a source of concern for the IMF during the upcoming review. ¶11. (U) The GOP allocated $4 billion for defense expenditures in the FY10 budget, however Pakistan's defense expenditures will likely exceed this budget allocation by $774 million by the end of the fiscal year. To cope with the increased defense spending, the GOP ISLAMABAD 00000318 003 OF 003 is cutting down its development expenditures by more than 40 percent. ¶12. (U) Both the State Bank and the Finance Ministry expect the inflation rate to grow in coming months due to a spike in global commodity prices. The IMF may again ask the SBP to tighten its monetary policy to contain inflation, especially as the SBP has reduced the policy rate by 250 basis points since April 2009, easing monetary policy. These policy measures were supported by substantial moderation in demand pressures. - - - - - Comment - - - - - ¶13. (U) Pakistan's economy has shown great resilience in the face of the country's current war and its on-going law and order problems. The GDP growth rate, though much lower than other countries in the region, such as India, is still in positive territory despite Pakistan's security problems. Similarly, a sharp reduction in inflation, contained government borrowing from the State Bank, a substantial contraction in external imbalances and exchange rate stability are all likely to preclude economic volatility. However, major risks, including a decreased overall volume of trade, poor tax growth, lower than expected receipt of aid and, in particular, the increased fiscal deficit, continue to threaten economic revival. PATTERSON