TELANGANA - A BANDH AND A ROAR STIR A UNITED RESPONSE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HYDERABAD 000002 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: TELANGANA - A BANDH AND A ROAR STIR A UNITED RESPONSE REF: REFS: A) HYDERABAD SITUATION UPDATE DEC 31, B) HYDERABAD SITUATION UPDATE DEC 29, C) HYDERABAD 121 HYDERABAD 00000002 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Two "bandhs" (strikes) and a rally over the past week brought different regions of Andhra Pradesh (AP) to a standstill. Facing down significant government opposition, the "Vidyarthi Garjana" (Student's Roar) rally organizers pulled off a well attended and peaceful protest in Hyderabad. Local law enforcement insists "anti-social" elements are assisting the students. Universities begin to develop contingencies to prevent the loss of the academic year due to campus closures. Both pro- and anti-statehood student groups pledged to continue demonstrations throughout AP on January 5 even as the GoI convenes a meeting of all recognized political parties in the state to discuss the issue. The success of this all-party meeting in addressing the equities of these different groups will determine the prospects for calm in the following days and weeks. END SUMMARY. Sequential Shutdowns Lead to United Action -------------- ¶2. (U) Two "bandhs" and a rally over the past week brought different regions of AP to a near standstill. On December 30, the bandh called by the Joint Action Committee of political parties (JAC-P) advocating separate statehood for the Telangana region resulted in wide-scale business closures throughout Hyderabad and the Telangana region (Ref A). Following on the heels of this largely peaceful strike, the Telangana student JAC's (TS-JAC) faced down local authorities to hold a "Vidyarthi Garjana" (Student's Roar) rally on January 3 endorsing the same cause. Meanwhile, the student JAC of the "United Andhra" (JAC-UA) movement answered both events by forcing a general strike on both the Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions on January 4 to underscore their resistance to bifurcating the state. [NOTE: There are three regions in AP comprising 23 districts. Hyderabad, the state capital, is one of ten districts located in the northwestern Telangana region. The smallest region, Rayalaseema, includes the four districts to the southwest of the state. The Coastal Andhra region contains all nine districts along the Bay of Bengal. END NOTE] Both pro- and anti-statehood student groups pledged to continue their demonstrations throughout the state on January 5 and beyond even as the GoI convenes a meeting of all recognized political parties in the state to discuss the issue. Telangana Students Roar But Don't Bite -------------- ¶3. (U) The TS-JAC invited students from colleges throughout the region to participate in the January 3 "Vidyarthi Garjana" rally on the campus of Osmania University (OU) in Hyderabad. Student organizers had predicted that a massive mobilization would bring as many as 500,000 people to the rally. In the end, approximately 80,000 students participated in a surprisingly well organized and peaceful outpouring of support for groups championing Telangana statehood. ¶4. (U) The TS-JAC first announced plans for the rally on 27 December, in the midst of a standoff with the state government and local law enforcement over attempts to both take a number of hunger-striking students into protective custody and to close the OU student hostels housing many of the protesting students (in order to discourage further civil unrest). The JAC-P appealed to the students to protest peacefully and at the same time asked police to show restraint when interacting with the students. The deadlock was broken on December 28 when the deteriorating condition of the students forced police to take the hunger-strikers to Gandhi Hospital for medical care and the AP High Court struck down a second government order closing the student hostels. (Ref B) ¶5. (U) In order to forestall further incidents of civil unrest HYDERABAD 00000002 002.2 OF 003 by "anti-social elements," local authorities refused permission for the January 3 rally and actively took measures to prevent participants from coming to Hyderabad (similar to those taken on December 10 (ref C)). These included establishing roadblocks on the major arteries entering Hyderabad and monitoring regional road and rail transportation routes in order to turn back or detain groups of protesters. Undeterred, the students petitioned the High Court to allow the protest to go forward. As tensions rose, additional police personnel arrived from neighboring districts to reinforce the police attempting to check the steady flow of people onto the OU campus. On the evening of January 2, the High Court directed local police to allow the rally to proceed for two hours in the afternoon with the stipulations among others that only students could attend the rally and that political leaders could neither participate in nor speak at the event. ¶6. (U) The day was not completely free from invective. Some student leaders incited the crowd with inflammatory statements such as warning political parties of severe consequences if they blocked statehood for the region, and threatening to prevent the return to Hyderabad of people who visit family in other regions during the Sankranti/Pongal holiday in mid-January. [COMMENT: This appeared to be the latest invective against the "settlers" from Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, many of whom have lived in Hyderabad for generations. END COMMENT] Still, the crowd stayed peaceful as other student leaders made more concrete demands including: the dismissal of all legal cases against students; an INR 10 lakh (USD 25,000) payment to the families of those who have died or committed suicide during the protests; that all political parties make their position on the Telangana issue public prior to the January 5 meeting in New Delhi; and that this meeting set a clear timeline for the formation of a Telangana state (that does not include passing a resolution in the AP State Assembly). The assembled students also declared 2010 as the year of "Telangana Sadhana" (Achieving Telangana) and proclaimed that no student would be allowed to take exams until statehood is attained. The Lost (Academic) Year -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Even as the organizers made their demands, many students began to voice concerns about possibly losing a full academic year due to university shut downs. K.C. Reddy, Chairman of the AP State Council of Higher Education (APSCHE), told Congenoff that a University Grants Commission (UGC) of India rule requiring that students attend a minimum of 75 percent of classes "will not be compromised." He said that if the student agitations do not settle down by January 18 - after the Sankranti holiday - that a meeting of University Vice Chancellors will meet to determine if the academic schedule can be extended and if exams can be postponed (for a third time) until April or May. However, the APSCHE Chairman averred that a solution would be found and cited the 1969-1971 Telangana student agitations. At that time state-sanctioned universities extended the length of all degree programs by one academic year (forcing student to postpone post-academic plans by one year). Radical Leaders Exhort Students to Action -------------- ¶8. (U) In addition to student leaders, certain other speakers managed to enter the OU campus and address the rally. JAC-P Chairman Professor K. Kondanda Ram exhorted the gathering to continue leading the movement in support of statehood and not to be deterred by (anti-statehood) Coastal Andhra Member of Parliament (MP) Lagadapati Rajagopal's "money power" or Rayalaseema MP Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy's "muscle power." Vara Vara Rao, a revolutionary writer who acted as an intermediary for the CPI(Maoist) in talks with YSR Reddy's new Congress state government in 2004, noted that the agitations would take a HYDERABAD 00000002 003.2 OF 003 "serious turn" if statehood was not granted. M. Krishna Madiga, President of the Madiga Reservation Porata Samiti (MRPS), claimed that the demands for a separate state would result in more water, jobs, and self-respect for the people of Telangana. [NOTE: On April 30, 2009 in Hyderabad, MRPS activists disrupted an election rally being addressed by Congress President Sonia Gandhi at the same time MRPS members attempted to torch the Congress party's state headquarters. Krishna Madiga's son died of burns sustained during the attempted arson. END NOTE] Police Fear a Return of the Naxals -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Local contacts and press report that law enforcement believes CPI(Maoist) elements are helping to organize some of the TS-PAC activities. Deputy Speaker of the AP Legislative Assembly N. Manohar told CongenOff that the police are convinced that, like in 1969, the current unrest over Telangana statehood will result in a successful recruiting campaign by Naxalite forces in the region. He noted that many former Naxalite leaders emerged from the earlier agitations and they garnered significant sympathy throughout Telangana due to their support of statehood. Manohar, who represents the Tenali constituency in Coastal Andhra's Guntur district, also remarked that many of the "radical members" of the TS-JAC are 30-plus year old students from the Madiga community, who are well past future career concerns and will continue to agitate whether or not the current academic year is lost. Students Organizing Into an Independent Political Force -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: Over the past month, a plethora of JACs have emerged around AP to represent the interests of different groups. The JAC-P enables pro-Telangana political parties to agitate while ensuring that none can claim to be the sole champions of statehood. It also allows them to work together to call peaceful bandhs that attempt to wrest the initiative from the hands of student groups. Meanwhile, the leaders of the TS-JAC (students) appear unconcerned about little other than the goal of achieving statehood as quickly as possible. Their successful organization of a large, peaceful rally in the face of significant government opposition and without any charismatic politicians to attract participants shows their growing strength and sophistication. On the other hand, the anti-statehood JAC-UA statements make clear their interest lies in continued access to the vibrant employment and investment opportunities in Hyderabad. Unlike the TS-JAC, which is concentrated in Hyderabad, the JAC-AU is dispersed across two regions and has not been able to organize anything on the scale of the "Vidyarthi Garjana." Still their bandhs have effectively shut down significant parts of both Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. The topic of statehood for Telangana has resulted in competing groups formed into two grievously polarized camps, each with the proven ability to disrupt daily life in the state - and quickly foment violence if they believe it serves their ends. Whether the all-party meeting in New Delhi can address these groups' demands will determine the prospects for calm in the following days and weeks. The national leadership of the Congress party has its work cut out. END COMMENT. KEUR