HONG KONG ANALYSTS' VIEWS ON CHINESE LEADERSHIP,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000069

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM,

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2034
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH HK
SUBJECT: HONG KONG ANALYSTS' VIEWS ON CHINESE LEADERSHIP,
18TH PARTY CONGRESS

REF: A. HONG KONG 1877

B. BEIJING 3128

C. GUANGZHOU 677

Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher Marut for reasons 1.4
(B,D).


1. (C) Summary: China analysts in Hong Kong saw the PRC's
provincial leadership reshuffle announced November 30 as a
possible preview of the two top contenders for China's sixth
generation leadership. They contended Hu Chunhua and Sun
Zhengcai, both 46, have a good chance of joining the
Politburo at the 18th Party Congress in 2012, with one
analyst suggesting Hu could even be elevated into the
Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC). Current Politburo
members tipped for promotion to the PBSC include party
secretaries Wang Yang (Guangdong) and Bo Xilai (Chongqing),
State Councilor Liu Yandong, Li Yuanchao, and Vice-Premier
Wang Qishan. One analyst suggested party secretaries Yu
Zhengsheng (Shanghai) and Zhang Gaoli (Tianjin) could emerge
as surprise contenders for the coveted PBSC seats. Analysts
believed Hu Jintao aspired to stay on as chairman of the
Central Military Commission beyond 2012. One observer
ventured Hu may remain party secretary beyond 2012 if he
could reach a compromise with former party boss and still
influential Jiang Zemin. End Summary


2. (C) We recently met with the following Hong Kong-based
China watchers to discuss their perspectives on the
provincial leadership reshuffle announced November 30 and its
significance for the 2012 Party Congress: City University
(City U) political science professor Joseph Yu-shek Cheng,
Chinese University (CUHK) professor and veteran China-watcher
Willy Wo-lap Lam, and local political commentators Frank
Ching and Johnny Lau.


Young Guns on the Rise
--------------


3. (C) The Chinese central government on November 30
announced a major reshuffle of provincial leaders that saw
several younger officials loyal to President Hu Jintao
promoted to key provincial posts. Seen by many observers as
the first phase of maneuvering for the next Party Congress in
2012, the promotions may also have provided a preview of the
two top contenders to lead the sixth generation expected to
take the helm in 2022. At 46, Hu Chunhua and Sun Zhengcai
became two of the youngest provincial party secretaries in
several decades. While the two have taken very different
paths to reach their new status -- Hu with work in Tibet and
Hebei and Sun exclusively in Beijing -- several of our
contacts believed each had advantages that made him a viable
candidate for China's top job.


4. (C) Having spent most of his career in Tibet and later as
first secretary of the Communist Youth League -- making him
part of President Hu's powerful tuanpai faction -- Hu
Chunhua, CUHK's Lam contended, has checked several of the
necessary boxes for further promotion. Despite being
governor of Hebei when tainted milk was first discovered to
have killed several children and made 300,000 ill, Lam noted
Hu emerged largely unscathed, a sign that Hu has strong
support from influential leaders. Lam saw the assignment in
low-profile Inner Mongolia as a safe posting that should
allow Hu to further demonstrate his leadership capabilities
with little fear of major scandals erupting. City U's Cheng
noted Hu was given a "chance to shine" as the leader of one
of China's higher-performing provinces. (Note: Inner Mongolia
has experienced double-digit growth since 2000, with its 2009
GDP growth forecast of 13 percent the highest among the
provinces, except for Shanxi who shared the 13 percent
forecast. End Note) Despite these apparent advantages, both
cautioned against prematurely anointing Hu as the leader of
the sixth generation. Chinese politics was a game of
negotiation that could produce unexpected results, they
warned, and 2022 was far away.


5. (C) In contrast to Hu's broad provincial experience, Sun
Zhengcai has only worked in Beijing. He served in several
municipal positions before becoming Minister of Agriculture
in 2006. Although considered a protg of Politburo Standing
Committee (PBSC) member and Chairman of the Chinese People's
Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) Jia Qinglin, our
contacts saw Sun's promotion to be due more to his
agricultural expertise than to his connections. Lam suggested
Sun's reputation as a capable agricultural technocrat meshed
well with the current leadership's emphasis on developing the
countryside.


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Fast Forward: 18th Party Congress
--------------


6. (C) Looking ahead to the 18th Party Congress in 2012,
several analysts saw room for the young Hu and Sun to join
the Politburo, the Party's all-powerful decision-making body.
With at least five and possibly up to seven of the current
nine PBSC seats up for grabs in 2012, Lam ventured Hu might
even have a shot at becoming one of the elite PBSC members.
None of the contacts, however, saw the same possibility for
Sun. Johnny Lau cautioned that there was still a group of
fifth generation cadres in their early sixties who could not
be passed over, meaning Hu and other sixth generation
hopefuls may have to wait until 2017 for their turn.


7. (C) With Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang the only two current
PBSC members seen as certain to remain on the PBSC after
2012, analysts offered varying predictions on other
candidates for the remaining seats. All agreed Guangdong
party secretary Wang Yang should get a seat. Lau suggested
Wang might get appointed as a state councilor while Cheng saw
Wang as possibly aiming for a vice-premiership. All but Lam
believed Chongqing party secretary and former commerce
minister Bo Xilai, reckoned as a member of the "princeling"
faction because of his party-elder father, would ascend to
the center of power. Noting Bo may be seen as too aggressive
and outspoken by some leaders, Lam assessed Bo as having a
"50-50" chance.


8. (C) Other current Politburo members our contacts judged to
be strong contenders for the PBSC included tuanpai members
Liu Yandong and Li Yuanchao. Lam suggested Liu, now a state
councilor, may replace CPPCC chairman Jia Qinglin while Lau
thought it was more likely she would become a vice-premier.
Li, currently the head of the party's powerful Central
Committee Organization Department, is seen as close to
President Hu but is also known to work well with other
factions. Several contacts also assessed vice-premier Wang
Qishan as having a good chance of getting on the PBSC due to
his expertise in economic and financial matters. City U's
Cheng ventured prominent party secretaries Yu Zhengsheng in
Shanghai and Zhang Gaoli in Tianjin could emerge as "dark
horse" contenders for the coveted seats.


Hu Jintao to Retire in 2012 or Will He?
--------------


9. (C) All except one contact believed Hu Jintao would remain
as Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) beyond
2012 when he was expected to relinquish his other two titles
of General Secretary of the Communist Party and state
president. CUHK's Lam cast Xi Jinping's not being appointed
CMC vice chairman at the Fourth Plenum in late September as a
strong signal Hu did not plan to retire from the CMC. City
U's Cheng maintained that many of Hu's military protgs
would like to see Hu stay on at CMC so he could continue to
move them up the ranks. Having only taken over the CMC from
Jiang Zemin in 2004, Hu likely felt he hadn't had enough time
to get his protgs into key positions in the military
hierarchy, Lau thought. Until recently, Jiang's still
considerable influence over military promotions hindered Hu's
efforts to promote those loyal to him.


10. (C) Lau went as far as to suggest Hu Jintao may even stay
on as party secretary for a few years beyond 2012 in exchange
for placing more of Jiang's protgs onto the PBSC and
Politburo. Lau pointed specifically to Zeng Wei, son of
Jiang ally and former vice-president Zeng Qinghong, as
someone Jiang would like to see in the Politburo. Jiang
hoped that by having his followers in power, he could
continue to protect his son Jiang Mianheng who has been
implicated in several corruption scandals in Shanghai,
explained Lau. Frank Ching, however, maintained the
leadership would want to project an image of stability so the
transfer of power from Hu to Xi should proceed smoothly.
MARUT