RESIGNATION-AS-REFERENDUM: ONE HAND CLAPPING?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000197 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2020 TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH HK SUBJECT: RESIGNATION-AS-REFERENDUM: ONE HAND CLAPPING? REF: HONG KONG 100 HONG KONG 00000197 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher Marut for reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Pro-Beijing parties have counted themselves out of the Civic Party-League of Social Democrats by-election-as-referendum plan, citing those parties' use of the term "uprising" and Beijing's declaration that the "referendum" is illegal. Pro-establishment politicians continue to beat their war drums about funding the expected HK$150 million by-election costs, but one legislator confided to us she expected the money to pass the Legislative Council without difficulty. Meanwhile, the parties still actually focused on the reform process are saying markedly similar things, but seem unable to sit down to thrash out a "bi-partisan" compromise. End summary. -------------- Heeding Beijing's Fatwa -------------- ¶2. (C) Despite reports that some in the party were spoiling for a fight, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) voted February 2 to boycott the Legislative Council (LegCo) by-elections that the Civic Party and the League of Social Democrats (LSD) hope to use as a "referendum" on universal suffrage. The vote was merely a formality: once Beijing declared the "referendum" in violation of the Basic Law, conventional wisdom was that the DAB would follow the Liberal Party in opting out. The Federation of Trade Unions (FTU),the labor counterpart to the DAB, is expected to take the same decision presently. ¶3. (C) Of the parties opting out, punters liked the DAB's chances most, with some estimates giving the party up to three of the five seats on offer. DAB does well in popular elections, thanks in no small part to its well-funded grass-roots activities (which most assume are subsidized by Beijing),and stands second only to the Democratic Party (DPHK) in number of directly-elected LegCo seats. Legislative Council President Jasper Tsang Yok-sing, himself a senior DAB leader, had earlier called on all parties to contest the by-elections, and the delay in a formal decision by the party may in part have been in deference to him. -------------- Idle Threat -------------- ¶4. (C) Politicians in the pro-establishment camp have in recent weeks been talking up passing legal restrictions against legislators resigning for political purposes, and also have threatened to block the HK$150 million (over US$19 million) the government is expected to request to conduct the by-elections. The legal option has lost some momentum since legislators admitted they could not pass legislation in time to affect the current by-elections. On the funding issue, the DAB split the difference, with the Central Committee voting to call on legislators to vote against the allocation but, Chairman Tam Yiu-chung told the media, leaving the final decision to individual legislators. ¶5. (C) "Professional Forum" legislator Priscilla Leung Mei-fun was among the first to propose changing the law and blocking the funds. However, she admitted to us February 3 she expected LegCo to pass the funding without difficulty. She suggested she was boxed in by her public comments, but that the government was likely to succeed in getting enough votes to pass the bill, with Leung and only a token few others opposing. -------------- Thinking Inside the Same Box -------------- ¶6. (C) At a Hong Kong Democracy Foundation-convened forum on political reform February 2 involving politicians from across the political spectrum, we heard several speakers suggest the current small-circle functional constituencies could eventually be replaced by a "one person, two votes" system, in which the second vote was for a party- or professional-oriented list. We recall Jasper Tsang proposed something similar as far back as 2007 in a media interview. However, there seems to be no arbiter so neutral s/he can actually pull all the groups together to thrash out a "bi-partisan" compromise. A range of contacts have told us considerable one-on-one dialogue is occurring, even between Beijing and the pan-democrats, but no one seems willing to risk making the first public move across the aisle. ¶7. (C) Priscilla Leung told us she knew many of the scholars HONG KONG 00000197 002.2 OF 002 who have joined forces with the DPHK to formulate an alternative to the government's current 2012 reform proposal (which Leung said she also dislikes). However, while she has spoken with the scholars individually, she thought it unlikely she could "officially" attend one of their events. She ventured that a neutral third party, like respected centrist daily newspaper Ming Pao, might be able to bring the two sides together. MARUT