RESIGNATION, REFERENDUM, REVOLUTION, OR WHATEVER:

C O N F I D E N T I A L HONG KONG 000150 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2020 TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH HK SUBJECT: RESIGNATION, REFERENDUM, REVOLUTION, OR WHATEVER: DAY ONE REF: HONG KONG 100 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher Marut for reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Amidst a swarm of media cameras, Civic Party Legislators Alan Leong Kah-kit and Tanya Chan Suk-chong, joined by the radical League of Social Democrats' (LSD) Raymond Wong Yuk-man, Albert Chan Wi-yip and "Long Hair" Leung Kwok-hung, publicly resigned their Legislative Council seats January 26. The resignations will take effect from Friday. Despite allegations from Beijing and its Hong Kong avatars that the "resignation-as-referendum" plan violates the Basic Law (reftel),the Hong Kong government has held to its (legally correct) line that, while the by-election is not a referendum, the government will hold the elections required to fill legislative vacancies. ¶2. (C) Following Beijing's declaration (reftel),pro-Beijing parties indicated they were reconsidering contesting the by-elections over concern that their participation would legitimate the "referendum." The LSD and Civics inadvertently furnished a convenient excuse to those parties to opt out late last week by posting large newspaper advertisements using the words "revolt of all the people" (quanmin qiyi) to rally the public to their cause. (Note: One pro-Beijing contact suggested that Civics Leader Audrey Eu Yuet-mee, who was educated and works as a barrister largely in English, did not fully understand the significance of the words chosen. End note.) Pro-Beijing commentators responded by branding the referendum fight a revolt seeking independence for Hong Kong. Denying (without much success) that they were acting under orders from Beijing, the Liberal Party announced over the weekend it would not contest the elections. The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) was expected to meet on the evening of January 26, but few doubt they will opt out of the races, and that their labor counterpart the Federation of Trade Unions will do the same. ¶3. (SBU) At the resignation press conference, Civics Leader Audrey Eu stressed that the parties were putting the power of democracy in the hands of the people where it belonged. She called for a contested election, suggesting those calling for a boycott did so because they feared the will of the people was not what they claimed it to be. ¶4. (C) Comment: At this point, Beijing and its allies would do best to fall silent, since anything further they say will give the Civics and LSD something to debate. Without an opponent, however, the two parties will be fighting to get the public interested in an election polls show even most of their supporters oppose. They will also be competing for coverage with the just-formed Alliance for Universal Suffrage -- a coalition of the Democratic Party, academics, NGOs and prominent unions -- that is now working to formulate an alternative to the government's reform proposal. Ironically, under these circumstances all five pan-democrats will probably win re-election, but with what may be an embarrassingly low voter turnout. End comment. ¶5. (C) Regarding the legalities of the plan, the Basic Law is silent on the subject of both resignations and by-elections (and also, incidentally, on the subject of referenda). The Legislative Council Ordinance specifies: -- At Section 14, that a legislator has the right to resign his or her post. Section 14 does not specify any restriction on this right. -- At Section 16, that "a person who ceases to be a Member is, (if legally qualified to serve),eligible for re-election as a Member." -- At Section 17, that a vacancy in LegCo does not halt LegCo business. -- At Section 36, that the government "must" hold a by-election to fill a vacancy unless (a) the current LegCo term will conclude in four months or less; or (b) LegCo is dissolved by the Chief Executive under the relevant terms of the Basic Law. There is no minimum turnout for a by-election. MARUT