FM STUBB CALLS FOR REVIEW AND RENEWAL OF U.S.-EU

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000049 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR HOVENIER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EU FI PREL SUBJECT: FM STUBB CALLS FOR REVIEW AND RENEWAL OF U.S.-EU "MARRIAGE VOWS" HELSINKI 00000049 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In an address delivered 27 January at Chatham House, just prior to the London Conference on Afghanistan, Foreign Minister Stubb prescribed a bit of marriage counseling for the EU-U.S. axis of the transatlantic relationship. Describing the relationship as akin to "a grumpy old couple" who are not quite sure how the relationship will play out in a changing world, Stubb repeated the view shared in political circles in Helsinki that American attention is increasingly diverted elsewhere. While the EU-U.S. relationship has rarely been as good as it is at present, crises and opportunities in Asia are increasingly leading to a dangerous drift in relations. As a prescription, Stubb called for a "marriage council" of experts to consider concrete measures that would deepen and strengthen transatlantic cooperation. END SUMMARY. -------------- SHARED HISTORY NOT ENOUGH -------------- ¶2. (SBU) A confirmed Atlanticist who has worked and studied in the U.S., FM Stubb began his 27 January speech, entitled "The New Atlantic Decade", by noting the economic strength of the "Atlantic community", with its creative, inclusive societies that drive global standards in both business and government. The depth and scope of EU-U.S. cooperation are "astounding," yet there is unease on both sides of the Atlantic. Stubb sees a U.S. "flirting with the world outside Europe and assessing its global network of partnerships" while Americans evince increasing frustration with the "weak and politically divided European Union." Europeans for their part fear a decline in their global position relative to emerging economies; "We are afraid of a G2 world dominated by the U.S. and China," admitted Stubb. (NOTE: As an example, he cites the failure of the U.S. and EU to agree on a common approach at Copenhagen. Similarly, at a recent Helsinki seminar former Finnish PM Paavo Lipponen seized on the same theme, decrying the exclusion of the EU from the final negotiation of the Copenhagen Accord. END NOTE.) Stubb's conclusion is that, while the relationship is strong, "we do not know how to use it to shape the world around us", a world composed of a greater number of actors with more divergent values and multiplying challenges such as climate change, fragile states, economic and financial governance, etc. -------------- TIME FOR A NEW PARTNERSHIP -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Stubb suggested that changes on both sides of the Atlantic are making a new kind of partnership possible. The post-Lisbon EU will have a more unified and active foreign policy, which Stubb sees as being matched with a new "willingness in Europe to take on more global responsibilities, as has been the case with climate change." On the U.S. side, the Obama administration's "new pragmatism and openness" and a foreign policy driven by the three Ds of diplomacy, development, and defense open the way for effective multilateralism. (NOTE: Finland's own rhetoric on the "comprehensive approach" to crisis management, which they will make the theme of a seminar on the NATO strategic concept in March, matches up well with the "three Ds". END NOTE.) In sum, these changes make possible an EU-U.S. partnership that can set common goals on global issues, agree on coordinated measures to achieve them, and lead other global players to support them. -------------- CONCRETE PROPOSALS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Taking inspiration from the NATO Strategic Concept review, Stubb offered that the U.. and EU should also conduct a "joint stock-taking." (NOTE: At a lunch with EU chiefs of mission in Helsinki earlier in January, Stubb previewed this idea, suggesting that Ashton and Clinton lead the review. END NOTE.) To help kick-start the process, he suggested several ideas to strengthen the partnership: -- Solidarity Pledge: A Lisbon-style pledge of solidarity in the case of civilian crises such as terrorist attacks or natural or man-made disasters. This would be a complement HELSINKI 00000049 002.2 OF 002 to NATO commitments and would signal a "qualitative change" in the relationship. -- Transatlantic Green Economy: Existing institutions such as the Transatlantic Economic Council and Transatlantic Energy Council need to be used to achieve tangible results in leading the globe towards a low-carbon economy. -- Full-fledged Free Trade Area: According to Stubb, it is "time to put our money where our mouth is." -- Open Transatlantic Cooperation to Others: Africa and South America are part of the Atlantic world as well, and we should gradually open up cooperation with these "dynamic . . . countries with varied strengths and a shared background." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Stubb's focus on the EU reflects his longstanding commitment to strengthening that institution. His eyes are wide open to its faults (for example, he has criticized its failure to use leverage with Russia as its main energy customer),but Stubb and many other Finnish leaders take their EU membership very seriously. His focus on the EU does not represent a weakening of Stubb's support for NATO. (He has described the EU as one of three pillars of Finland's foreign policy, along with Nordic Cooperation and partnership with NATO.) He explicitly stated that his proposal is intended to complement, not undermine, NATO. Stubb's speech drew no reactions in the Finnish media, as these themes are consistent with his and the government's views. ORECK