GUAYAQUIL PROTESTS AGAINST CORREA REGIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000013

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/12
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: GUAYAQUIL PROTESTS AGAINST CORREA REGIME

DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 (B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 11, several hundred thousand lin...




id: 248733
date: 2/12/2010 20:01
refid: 10GUAYAQUIL13
origin: Consulate Guayaquil
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination:
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DE RUEHGL #0013/01 0432001
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FM AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0153
INFO RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL


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C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000013

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/12
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: GUAYAQUIL PROTESTS AGAINST CORREA REGIME

DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 (B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 11, several hundred thousand lined
Guayaquil's main avenue answering Mayor Jaime Nebot's call to
protest the central government's treatment of the city. During a
fifty-minute speech, Nebot attacked President Correa's policies
that he claimed marginalized Guayaquil, and called on citizens to
help him end the government's policies, not the government. Nebot
also called on other cities to follow suit. The central government
staged a series of initiatives, including free health clinics in
poor neighborhoods, to stem support for the march, but media
estimates place attendance at 200,000-350,000. The march ostensibly
was called to protest the fact that the government's funding of
Guayaquil was $17 million less than authorized, but quickly became
a referendum on the government's actions against Guayaquil. Some
are already hailing the march as a possible turning point for
opposition in the country, but the big question remains, what next?
End Summary.



THE BUILD-UP


2. (U) Over the past month, Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot has been
involved in a highly publicized feud with finance minister Elsa
Viteri over the fact that Guayaquil is budgeted to receive $17
million less in its budget this year. Nebot alleges that on a per
capita basis Guayaquil is receiving considerably less than any
other provincial capital and Quito, despite having the country's
largest population and highest share of tax revenue to the
government. Viteri counters that the government used a fair and
equitable formula to calculate the budget, but has yet to publicize
exactly what the formula is. Nationally, support for the new
budget is divided along party lines. Many small towns and centers
of PAIS support are seeing increases in their budget and therefore
support it. As a response, Mayor Nebot called for a march to
protest the way the central government treats Guayaquil.

CHANGING THE THEME


3. (SBU) Although the march was initially called to express
displeasure with the budget, the message coming out of Nebot's
office in the past week was that the march was a rejection of the
entire Correa government and its concept of 21st Century Socialism.
This idea seems to have caught traction where the protest against
the budget did not. In informal discussions, consulate members did
not note much excitement over the upcoming protests. However, as
the theme was expanded to include what Nebot framed as attacks
against Guayaquil, such as the closing of a popular, municipally
run health clinic program and a rejection of socialism, excitement
over the march grew.

THE MARCH


4. (U) Media estimates of the size of the crowd vary from "tens of
thousands" to over 350,000 people. One newspaper, Hoy, estimated
the crowd at 200,000 based on photos from the event, but these
photos did not take into account the significant crowds that
overflowed on to side streets. Those who attended the event claim
it was larger than the large protest two years ago against the new
constitution, which was estimated at more than 300,000 people.
ConGen Guayaquil can confirm that 10 city blocks were full of
people standing shoulder to shoulder. At 1600 Nebot took to the
stage alone. As is his custom, he gave a rousing, profanity laden
and seemingly unscripted speech. He struck a careful balance
between calling for the citizens to fight and explaining that he is
not a "golpista" (seditionist). "No, we are not vulgar
incendiaries or revolutionaries, but neither are we cowards." He
added that Guayaquil will fight "till the end of the dictator, not
the president." On numerous occasions he compared Correa to Hugo
Chavez, which led to strong applause. "We don't want to be
Caracas. If he (Correa) likes it, he should go to Caracas or stay
in Cuba," referring to the fact that Correa left the day before the
protest to have knee surgery in Cuba.

EXTENSIVE PREPARATION


5. (U) The city exerted an enormous effort to organize the march.
Buses were provided free of charge from all parts of the city and
the city's mass transit system, the MetroVia, was free for all
protesters going to and from the march. Police were stationed
throughout the city to direct busses downtown. Newspaper reports
state that more than 3,000 community organizations were involved in
sending people to the protest. Many employers gave their employees
the afternoon off so they could go downtown as well. Lastly, the
city used a media blitz of billboards, newspaper, TV and radio
advertisements to drum up support for the march. The government
countered with its own national media blitz, alleging that Nebot's
budgetary assertions were merely a political ploy, and his main

intention was asserting special rights for Guayaquil over the rest
of the country.

GOVERNMENT REACTION


6. (C) Unlike in previous protests, the Correa regime did not
mount a counter-protest. They tried to frame the march as a
political maneuver on the part of Nebot rather than genuine outrage
on the part of the population. In an attempt to downplay the size
of the march, Correa accused Nebot of giving people ten dollars or
a sandwich to attend the protest. [Note: Those attending the march
cited the perceived disrespect of Guayaquil in this comment as one
of the prime motivating factors for participating in the march.
End Note.] At the same time of the march, Guayas governor Roberto
Cuero of Correa's Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) Alliance
was in poor parts of the city distributing low-energy light bulbs
and overseeing the delivery of medical services and garbage clean
up in what he claims are sectors not properly served by the Nebot
administration. Although Cuero claims these programs were planned
well before the protest and were not meant to be a response, they
are widely perceived in the city to be the central government's
attempt to keep people from attending the protest. [Note:
Governors in Ecuador are appointed by the central government. End
note.]

GOING NATIONAL


7. (C) In a meeting with the Consul General the day before the
protest, Carlos Vera, the popular TV personality and outspoken
critic of the Correa administration, told the CG that he urged the
mayor to address his speech to a national audience rather than just
Guayaquil and to appear on stage with opposition figures from
around the country. According to Vera, Nebot declined to do so,
saying that he is only fighting for Guayaquil and has no further
interest in national politics. They agreed that Vera would lead
opposition protests in other cities, beginning with his already
scheduled march in Quito on February 18th. Although Nebot did
appear onstage alone and addressed his speech to Guayaquil, he
offered Vera one concession: in his speech he called on cities
throughout the country to rise up and protest.


8. (C) COMMENT: If the march's sole aim was to regain the "lost"
$17 million, it will likely fail as the central government is
unlikely to give in (the president of the National Assembly even
stated he would censure the Finance Minister if she were to give
Guayaquil more money than the law allowed). However, some in the
opposition are hailing the march as a turning point and are hoping
that marches planned in other cities will generate similar support.
The next protest march, being organized by Carlos Vera, is slated
for Quito February 18. It is unlikely that marches in other cities
will get 10-15% of the population onto the streets, but if marches
in other regions do draw significant turnout, it could mark the
first time that popular protests started on the coast cross
geographic boundaries into the highlands (which have consistently
been more supportive of Correa). Given the president's falling
popularity, opposition groups are hoping this could occur, but they
lack a unified vision and a leader capable of rallying all the
disparate elements of the opposition. END COMMENT.
Fernandez

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