WELCOME TO BOTSWANA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GABORONE 000139 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE PLEASE PASS TO HOUSE FOR CODEL MEEKS-WATT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OREP ECON EFIN PREL PGOV BC SUBJECT: WELCOME TO BOTSWANA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL MEEKS-WATT, FEB. 19-20, 2010 GABORONE 00000139 001.2 OF 003 -------------- Mineral Exporter Faces Tough Times -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Embassy Gaborone warmly welcomes Codel Meeks-Watt to Botswana. Your visit comes as the Government of Botswana, which announced its proposed FY 10/11 budget last week, attempts to maintain its social welfare and infrastructure development programs despite the global economic slowdown. Botswana produces around 30 percent of the world's diamonds by value, and its economy is heavily dependent on the mineral sector. Finance Minister Matambo announced that the GOB's diamond revenues are expected to decline by 36 percent in the current fiscal year to USD 1 billion and may not fully recover to pre-recession levels until FY 12/13. The lack of demand for diamonds has been coupled with a decline in tax and customs revenues, causing Botswana to enter an unprecedented period of deficit spending. For FY 10/11, the GOB anticipates a budget shortfall of about 12.2 percent of GDP. Botswana will draw down some of its considerable foreign reserves and use a concessional loan from the African Development Bank to help finance its deficit spending. ¶2. (SBU) Botswana has responded to the economic crisis with several belt-tightening measures, including postponement of development projects and 7 percent across the board budget cuts for Ministries and government agencies. Government is the single largest employer in Botswana and its workers received no raises or cost-of-living adjustments in 2009 or ¶2010. The goverment also plans to raise the value-added tax from 10 to 12 percent starting in April 2010. The combined wage freeze and tax hike is not popular. However, Botswana hopes that by prioritizing key projects and services and cutting others, freezing wages, and increasing taxes, it can weather the next 18 months until the diamond market recovers. Botswana's GDP growth for FY 09/10 is projected to be flat, though it may recover to 5 percent in FY 10/11. -------------- President Focuses on Delivery -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Ian Khama is Botswana's fourth President and the son of its revered first President, Seretse Khama. As vice president in April 2008, he assumed the presidency when then-incumbent Festus Mogae resigned. In October 2009, Khama led the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) to victory in the 10th consecutive peaceful, free, and fair elections in the country's history. With 53 percent of the vote, the BDP won 45 of the 57 seats in Parliament. President Khama is known as a no-nonsense, hardworking leader. When he moved into the presidency in 2008, Khama promised he would focus on "four D's" as President: democracy, development, dignity and discipline. After his 2009 election he added a "fifth D" to the list: delivery. Khama recognizes that the GOB must speed up infrastructure and other development projects and ensure that civil servants are more responsive to citizens. The BDP holds a large majority in Parliament and should have no trouble passing any initiatives it proposes. However, the ruling party has at times been plagued by factional fighting, and Khama will need to find a way to appease his rivals Qand Khama will need to find a way to appease his rivals within the party to avoid obstacles in implementing his agenda. While some critics contend that Khama's style is too "militaristic," his supporters say that he is simply impatient with traditional politics. Khama's personal popularity as the son of the country's first president will afford him some additional latitide in governing. -------------- -- Botswana's Principled Stance on Regional Crises -------------- -- ¶4. (SBU) Botswana is consistent and courageous in urging democracy and the rule of law in Africa, especially in Zimbabwe, where President Khama has resisted the SADC consensus of "quiet diplomacy." Botswana provided refuge to now-Prime Minister Tsvangirai during the negotiations of the Global Political Agreement, and since the formation of the unity government has ceaselessly encouraged full GPA implementation. Khama told reporters in October 2009 that GABORONE 00000139 002 OF 003 should the MDC pull out of the coalition, Botswana would no longer recognize Mugabe as the legitimate President. The Botswana-Zimbabwe bilateral relationship remains difficult. For example, in January 2010, three Botswana wildlife officers accidentally strayed into Zimbabwe while on duty and were arrested and imprisoned. After the GOZ refused to communicate with the GOB for over three weeks to resolve this situation, Botswana announced on February 5 that it would recall its Defense and Intelligence Attaches from Harare by the end of the month and it expected Zimbabwe to reciprocate. Botswana has been vocal on other regional crises include Madagascar and Sudan, regularly announcing that Botswana would arrest and extradite Sudanese President Bashir should he visit. In 2008 and 2009, Botswana voted with the United States on all key UNGA human rights resolutions, in violation of the "African consensus" against single country resolutions. -------------- Prosperous Economy Needs to Diversify -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Botswana has risen from extreme poverty to middle-income status in only 40 years, thanks to a combination of diamond wealth, good leadership, and sound macroeconomic policies. Botswana's GDP per capita is over USD 13,000, but thirty percent of its 1.8 million citizens are living in poverty, many in isolated rural communities. President Khama recognizes that diamonds are not forever, and that mineral wealth alone will not improve the living standards for Botswana's poor. Economic diversification is the key to Botswana's future success, and the Khama government is promoting diversification both within the mineral sector and more broadly. The country is attempting to move beyond mining and into value-added activities like sorting and cutting and polishing. A DeBeers-GOB joint venture (the Diamond Trading Center) opened in Gaborone in 2008, and 16 jewelery firms which have opened production facilities here are now able to buy rough stones locally. However, the diamond industry was hit hard by the global economic crisis. It is estimated that Botswana's economy contracted by over ten percent in 2009, and many of its new jewelry manufacturers have scaled back local production, so it is too soon to tell how this new industry will fare. ¶6. (SBU) Botswana recognizes that due to its location and small population size, it is not likely to be a traditional manufacturing center, and instead is focusing on developing a service economy. While its high value/low impact tourism is its greatest success so far, Botswana has a thriving financial services industry, and is hoping to expand into information technology (perhaps call centers or back office support) and regional medical centers. The Batswana were traditionally farmers and ranchers, and the Khama government also hopes to encourage the agricultural sector and reduce the country's dependence on imported food. Khama is intensely interested in the Administration's Food Security Initiative. -------------- Together Reducing the Impact of HIV/AIDS -------------- Q -------------- ¶7. (U) Botswana is one of the countries hardest hit by HIV/AIDS, but through partnership with the United States, we are making enormous progress to reduce the reach and impact of the disease. Our partnership with the GOB on PEPFAR works because the GOB has upheld its side of the bargain, spending an estimated USD 754 million of Botswana government funds on HIV/AIDS since 2005. In turn, we have invested some USD 390 million since 2005 to support them, implemented through Peace Corps, CDC, USAID, DOD, and the State Department. The strong USG-GOB partnership has encouraged Harvard, Baylor, Johns Hopkins, and the University of Pennsylvania to join us, providing the GOB management and clinical experience, knowledge, and financial backing. The universities also cooperate not only with the GOB but also with the Bill and Melinda Gates, Merck, and Clinton foundations, all of whom are active here. The World Bank and Global Fund lend essential multilateral dimensions and expertise to the fight. GABORONE 00000139 003 OF 003 The results are astounding: the GOB has virtually eliminated mother-to-child transmission of HIV; over 80 percent of Batswana who need anti-retroviral therapy get it; and new HIV infections appear to be slowing. The struggle remains intense because 24 percent of Batswana are HIV positive and 131,000 people are on therapy. -------------- Professional, Capable Military -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Botswana Defense Force is a capable, professional, civiian-controlled military that serves as a model fr the continent. The BDF supports civil authorities in the area of anti-poaching operations, border control, and domestic law enforcement. Increasingly the BDF also projects its positive values abroad. Botswana's military training programs for both officers and NCOs are exemplary, and Botswana is offering this training to neighbors. Botswana is willing to host specialized training for SADC militaries, both on special topics such as counterterrorism and as part of the BDF's vibrant State Partnership Program with the North Carolina National Guard -- commonly regarded as the best in Africa. The United States already has a productive military-to-military relationship with the BDF, and an even stronger USG relationship would bolster the BDF's military effectiveness and its critical civilian support roles, and also have a multiplier effect on military professionalization in other African countries. ¶9. (SBU) The BDF has frequently participated in past peacekeping operations, including Somalia, Mozambique and Lesotho. The BDF's most likely commitment, at least in the near term, to peacekeeping on the continent would be to provide airlift. The BDF's tactical airlift capability is easily one of the most effective in Africa. This capability is currently suffering from a pilot shortage that could severely decrease its effectiveness. Increased USG assistance, including through establishing an exchange officer program with the USAF, could help to train pilots and equip the BDF for potential PKO deployments. -------------- Environmental Advocates in Africa? -------------- ¶10. (U) Botswana is a semi-arid country that values water conservation; through USAID, we are helping Botswana to partner with its neighbors on sustainable trans-boundary water management in the Okavango and Zambezi river basins. Botswana was the first African country to qualify for Tropical Forest Conservation Act benefits. In 2006, our governments signed an agreement which through a debt-swap agreement provides USD 8.3 million for conservation of Botswana's forests, to be administered through a locally created trust fund, overseen by a Board with representatives from the USG and GOB. President Khama is deeply committed to environmental conservation. He serves on the board of Conservation International and plays an active role in its deliberations. Botswana,s citizens also realize that their natural heritage, including the Okavango Delta and Chobe river basin, has enormous tourism potential and therefore economic benefits. The country has chosen a high-cost, low-volume tourism strategy to allow visitors to experience Qlow-volume tourism strategy to allow visitors to experience the country's beauty without destroying it. Public education and awareness activities are being undertaken by the GOB and by private environmental organizations, and in the last decade there has been an increase in community participation in natural resource management. Botswana is currently facing an energy crisis, like most of the southern African region. The country currently imports 80 percent of its power from South Africa, and its sole electric plant is coal-fired. Botswana has large coal reserves and plans to expand its coal-fired generating capacity. However, Botswana is also in talks with an independent power producer that hopes to utilize the country's coal-bed methane supply for cleaner electricity as well as eventually cooking gas and other commercial applications. NOLAN