TAVILDARA - THE MOST STABLE PLACE ON EARTH?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000095 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/20/2020 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON PINR TI SUBJECT: TAVILDARA - THE MOST STABLE PLACE ON EARTH? REF: A) 09 DUSHANBE 845; B) 09 DUSHANBE 714; C) 09 DUSHANBE 1016 CLASSIFIED BY: Ken Gross, Ambassador, EXEC, DoS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During a visit to the Tavildara District, scene of fighting between government forces and militants from May-July 2009, contacts described the area as stable and identified the absence of international development groups and lack of jobs, rather than security concerns, as the main problems facing the area. Officials claimed all fighters involved in May-July fighting in remote mountain areas were either "liquidated" or in government custody and declared that opposition groups capable of mounting an attack were destroyed. Though most of the local population opposed the militants in 2009, unemployment, isolation, and poverty continue to make Tavildara residents vulnerable to extremist appeals. END SUMMARY ALL IS QUIET ON THE TAVILDARA FRONT ¶2. (SBU) January 13-14, Emboffs visited the rugged, sparsely populated Tavildara district, scene of fighting between government forces and armed militants during summer 2009. Along the road to Tavildara town, which in places is a dirt track as it skirts mountain gorges, there were few cars and no government security checkpoints. Most mountain homes were made of mud or rocks, with a few modern, brick structures standing out. Perched on the edge of Tavildara town, a stronghold of the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) during the Tajik civil war, is the palatial, three story mansion of the late Mirzo Ziyoev. Former commander and chief of the UTO and, after the civil war Minister of Emergency Situations, Ziyoev ran Tavildara as his fiefdom until he was shot dead in July 2009. His mansion is now Tajik government property. ¶3. (S) District Chairman Himmatsho Ghairatov said Tavildara had been calm and stable since last summer, when former members of the UTO returned to the district from Afghanistan, linking up with "Daghestanis and Tartars" who infiltrated the district from the north. The group was attempting to "influence the government" by demanding their own "sphere of influence" in the area. "Before launching operations, we entered talks with them to ask them to leave. They didn't agree and they decided to attack the district center. They were engaged by security forces and stopped." Ghairatov demurred from further speculation on the militants' objective, since "both of their leaders", whom he identified as Mirzo Ziyoev and Nemat Azizov, were dead. Ghairatov said it was unclear whether Mullah Abdullah Rahimov was among the 2009 militants. ¶4. (S) NOTE: Mullah Abdullah was widely considered the leader of the armed group and probably was in Tajikistan during the fighting. His current whereabouts are unknown. Some sensitive Embassy sources claimed that he was apprehended, some said that he fled to Uzbekistan, and others claimed he returned to Afghanistan. END NOTE. ¶5. (C) Chief of the Tavildara District office of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB) Asliddin Abdulloev, whose office, unlike the District Administrator's, had a computer, proper heat, and modern communication equipment, said the government "liquidated or imprisoned" all belligerents involved in the fighting. "We completely destroyed the forces that could launch such an attack." Abdulloev refused to provide additional information on the 2009 fighting as "legal cases are ongoing." The biggest problem in the district now was not security concerns, but rather the absence of foreign aid organizations. "If they are too afraid to work here (because of last summer's fighting),then they should have pulled out of Afghanistan a long time ago." ¶6. (SBU) The Chief of Tavildara District Police, Colonel Kurbanali Rahimov, said that far from being dangerous, Tavildara is "the stablest place in the world... the only place in the world where nothing ever happens. There is no robbery, no theft, no rape, nothing!" Most of Tavildara's visitors were tourists passing through en route to Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO). Rahimov said that none of the approximately 2,500-3000 foreign tourists who drive through Tavildara each year on their way to Gorno Badakhsan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) have experienced problems with the local population as they pass through the district. DUSHANBE 00000095 002 OF 003 LOCAL POPULATION: "SICK OF CONFLICT" ¶7. (C) The local population is "sick of conflict" and would oppose any attempt to instigate insurrection, according to Abdu Salom Bafor, the Imam Khatib of Tavildara's central mosque. Other Embassy sources, however, suggest that while Tavildarans did not join the militants, many were pleased when the foreigners came into town to buy local foodstuffs. The population was largely unaffected by the 2009 fighting, which mostly occurred in the mountains. The head of the Islamic Renaissance Party's (IRPT) Tavildara branch, Mullo Pirmahmad, concurred, noted that he was able to drive normally within the district even during the height of the fighting, which occurred in unpopulated areas between Tavildara and Darvaz districts. After the fighting, Pirmahmed said "people were afraid that villages would be searched," but "nothing happened." He underlined that "none of the people involved were affiliated with the IRPT." ¶8. (S) Some Tavildarans are angry about the government's claim that militants, rather than government forces, shot and killed Ziyoev, according to Jannati Tulaev, local representative of the Aga Khan Mountain Societies Development Support Program (MSDSP). It is unclear whether Ziyoev actually was a leader of the June 2009 militant group. Most locals doubted the official story and believed a government soldier assassinated Ziyoev, who "has many supporters in the area angry about the circumstances of his death, though they would never express this openly." Tulaev speculated that the government accused Ziyoev of cooperating with the 2009 militants as an excuse to get rid of him. ¶9. (SBU) Imam Bafor said mosque attendance is up and about 200 people attend his Friday prayers, but he has not seen a rise in extremist ideology. "If someone from the outside wants to preach, we find out who they are and exactly what they want to preach before we let them." The Ministry of Culture representative at the district administrator's office sends recommendations to Bafor for his Friday prayer topics. The Imam said he uses some of them "but I base my preaching only on what is found in the Koran." He hasn't seen a rise in Salafism or Islamic fundamentalism, nor have missionaries from the Jamaat-i-Tabligh Islamic fundamentalist group preached in the area. HUNGRY FOR ASSISTANCE ¶10. (SBU) Tavildara is a remote region, even by Tajik standards, and was among the hardest hit during the Tajik civil war. Though the second largest district in the country in area, there is not a single factory. Its economy has stagnated, residents barter their home-grown goods, and up to 60% of its men go to Russia for seasonal work. Imam Bafor said joblessness was the chief concern of his mosque attendees, particularly during the winter. "Every family sends at least one member to Russia. Some send three or four. Some men get cheated while in Russia and return with nothing." Remittances are down and many men have returned with little to show for their labors. Even those who have returned with nothing plan to try their luck in Russia again because there are no opportunities to make money at home. ¶11. (SBU) Tavildara district residents survive through subsistence farming, cattle-breeding, and bee-keeping. The international assistance that flowed to Tavildara after the civil war has largely dried up and only one NGO, the MSDSP, has an office in the district. Mercy Corps will begin implementing USAID community development projects in two Tavildara "jamoats" in the spring. A Japanese government organic farming program supports two greenhouses. Officials cite tourism as an area for economic development, but there is no local know-how in developing tourism infrastructure. Although Tavildara's location on a mountain river could make it a destination in its own right, the MSDSP representative suggested a hotel be built "for tourists on their way to GBAO." DUSHANBE 00000095 003 OF 003 ¶12. (U) The education system lacks qualified teachers of all subjects, particularly English and Russian, according to Tulaev. Not all village children have access to schools due to the remoteness of some settlements. The district administrator said the government delayed construction of several new schools because of the economic crisis (as well as postponed construction of a new "House of Culture" and sports stadium). Many students, especially girls, leave school after the ninth grade (highest compulsory level of schooling) because parents do not see any utility in education. ¶13. (C) COMMENT: Though the government seems, for now, to have control over security in the Tavildara district, prospects for long-term stability have not improved because the government has not offered the population legitimate means for economic development. The Tajik government was able to put down the 2009 incursion because the militants did not receive popular support, but with up to 60% of the working age men in Russia potential recruits were out of the country anyway. With a crumbling Tajik education system, these Tavildarans working in Russia increasingly will lack the language skills to defend their rights to fair pay. With remittances from Russia declining due to the economic crisis and a lack of investment by the Tajik government in local infrastructure projects, the Tavildaran population will remain vulnerable to offers from militants, drug traffickers, or regional strongmen like Mirzo Ziyoev who have hard currency to offer. Unfortunately, with the government's single-minded focus on building the Roghun hydroelectric dam, it is unlikely that any development support is forthcoming from Dushanbe. END COMMENT. GROSS