TAVILDARA - THE MOST STABLE PLACE ON EARTH?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000095

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/20/2020
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON PINR TI
SUBJECT: TAVILDARA - THE MOST STABLE PLACE ON EARTH?

REF: A) 09 DUSHANBE 845; B) 09 DUSHANBE 714; C) 09 DUSHANBE 1016

CLASSIFIED BY: Ken Gross, Ambassador, EXEC, DoS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: During a visit to the Tavildara District, scene
of fighting between government forces and militants from
May-July 2009, contacts described the area as stable and
identified the absence of international development groups and
lack of jobs, rather than security concerns, as the main
problems facing the area. Officials claimed all fighters
involved in May-July fighting in remote mountain areas were
either "liquidated" or in government custody and declared that
opposition groups capable of mounting an attack were destroyed.
Though most of the local population opposed the militants in
2009, unemployment, isolation, and poverty continue to make
Tavildara residents vulnerable to extremist appeals. END SUMMARY



ALL IS QUIET ON THE TAVILDARA FRONT




2. (SBU) January 13-14, Emboffs visited the rugged, sparsely
populated Tavildara district, scene of fighting between
government forces and armed militants during summer 2009. Along
the road to Tavildara town, which in places is a dirt track as
it skirts mountain gorges, there were few cars and no government
security checkpoints. Most mountain homes were made of mud or
rocks, with a few modern, brick structures standing out.
Perched on the edge of Tavildara town, a stronghold of the
United Tajik Opposition (UTO) during the Tajik civil war, is the
palatial, three story mansion of the late Mirzo Ziyoev. Former
commander and chief of the UTO and, after the civil war Minister
of Emergency Situations, Ziyoev ran Tavildara as his fiefdom
until he was shot dead in July 2009. His mansion is now Tajik
government property.




3. (S) District Chairman Himmatsho Ghairatov said Tavildara had
been calm and stable since last summer, when former members of
the UTO returned to the district from Afghanistan, linking up
with "Daghestanis and Tartars" who infiltrated the district from
the north. The group was attempting to "influence the
government" by demanding their own "sphere of influence" in the
area. "Before launching operations, we entered talks with them
to ask them to leave. They didn't agree and they decided to
attack the district center. They were engaged by security
forces and stopped." Ghairatov demurred from further
speculation on the militants' objective, since "both of their
leaders", whom he identified as Mirzo Ziyoev and Nemat Azizov,
were dead. Ghairatov said it was unclear whether Mullah
Abdullah Rahimov was among the 2009 militants.




4. (S) NOTE: Mullah Abdullah was widely considered the leader
of the armed group and probably was in Tajikistan during the
fighting. His current whereabouts are unknown. Some sensitive
Embassy sources claimed that he was apprehended, some said that
he fled to Uzbekistan, and others claimed he returned to
Afghanistan. END NOTE.




5. (C) Chief of the Tavildara District office of the State
Committee for National Security (GKNB) Asliddin Abdulloev, whose
office, unlike the District Administrator's, had a computer,
proper heat, and modern communication equipment, said the
government "liquidated or imprisoned" all belligerents involved
in the fighting. "We completely destroyed the forces that could
launch such an attack." Abdulloev refused to provide additional
information on the 2009 fighting as "legal cases are ongoing."
The biggest problem in the district now was not security
concerns, but rather the absence of foreign aid organizations.
"If they are too afraid to work here (because of last summer's
fighting),then they should have pulled out of Afghanistan a
long time ago."




6. (SBU) The Chief of Tavildara District Police, Colonel
Kurbanali Rahimov, said that far from being dangerous, Tavildara
is "the stablest place in the world... the only place in the
world where nothing ever happens. There is no robbery, no
theft, no rape, nothing!" Most of Tavildara's visitors were
tourists passing through en route to Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous
Oblast (GBAO). Rahimov said that none of the approximately
2,500-3000 foreign tourists who drive through Tavildara each
year on their way to Gorno Badakhsan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO)
have experienced problems with the local population as they pass
through the district.

DUSHANBE 00000095 002 OF 003





LOCAL POPULATION: "SICK OF CONFLICT"




7. (C) The local population is "sick of conflict" and would
oppose any attempt to instigate insurrection, according to Abdu
Salom Bafor, the Imam Khatib of Tavildara's central mosque.
Other Embassy sources, however, suggest that while Tavildarans
did not join the militants, many were pleased when the
foreigners came into town to buy local foodstuffs. The
population was largely unaffected by the 2009 fighting, which
mostly occurred in the mountains. The head of the Islamic
Renaissance Party's (IRPT) Tavildara branch, Mullo Pirmahmad,
concurred, noted that he was able to drive normally within the
district even during the height of the fighting, which occurred
in unpopulated areas between Tavildara and Darvaz districts.
After the fighting, Pirmahmed said "people were afraid that
villages would be searched," but "nothing happened." He
underlined that "none of the people involved were affiliated
with the IRPT."




8. (S) Some Tavildarans are angry about the government's claim
that militants, rather than government forces, shot and killed
Ziyoev, according to Jannati Tulaev, local representative of the
Aga Khan Mountain Societies Development Support Program (MSDSP).
It is unclear whether Ziyoev actually was a leader of the June
2009 militant group. Most locals doubted the official story and
believed a government soldier assassinated Ziyoev, who "has many
supporters in the area angry about the circumstances of his
death, though they would never express this openly." Tulaev
speculated that the government accused Ziyoev of cooperating
with the 2009 militants as an excuse to get rid of him.




9. (SBU) Imam Bafor said mosque attendance is up and about 200
people attend his Friday prayers, but he has not seen a rise in
extremist ideology. "If someone from the outside wants to
preach, we find out who they are and exactly what they want to
preach before we let them." The Ministry of Culture
representative at the district administrator's office sends
recommendations to Bafor for his Friday prayer topics. The Imam
said he uses some of them "but I base my preaching only on what
is found in the Koran." He hasn't seen a rise in Salafism or
Islamic fundamentalism, nor have missionaries from the
Jamaat-i-Tabligh Islamic fundamentalist group preached in the
area.



HUNGRY FOR ASSISTANCE




10. (SBU) Tavildara is a remote region, even by Tajik standards,
and was among the hardest hit during the Tajik civil war.
Though the second largest district in the country in area, there
is not a single factory. Its economy has stagnated, residents
barter their home-grown goods, and up to 60% of its men go to
Russia for seasonal work. Imam Bafor said joblessness was the
chief concern of his mosque attendees, particularly during the
winter. "Every family sends at least one member to Russia.
Some send three or four. Some men get cheated while in Russia
and return with nothing." Remittances are down and many men
have returned with little to show for their labors. Even those
who have returned with nothing plan to try their luck in Russia
again because there are no opportunities to make money at home.




11. (SBU) Tavildara district residents survive through
subsistence farming, cattle-breeding, and bee-keeping. The
international assistance that flowed to Tavildara after the
civil war has largely dried up and only one NGO, the MSDSP, has
an office in the district. Mercy Corps will begin implementing
USAID community development projects in two Tavildara "jamoats"
in the spring. A Japanese government organic farming program
supports two greenhouses. Officials cite tourism as an area for
economic development, but there is no local know-how in
developing tourism infrastructure. Although Tavildara's
location on a mountain river could make it a destination in its
own right, the MSDSP representative suggested a hotel be built
"for tourists on their way to GBAO."



DUSHANBE 00000095 003 OF 003




12. (U) The education system lacks qualified teachers of all
subjects, particularly English and Russian, according to Tulaev.
Not all village children have access to schools due to the
remoteness of some settlements. The district administrator said
the government delayed construction of several new schools
because of the economic crisis (as well as postponed
construction of a new "House of Culture" and sports stadium).
Many students, especially girls, leave school after the ninth
grade (highest compulsory level of schooling) because parents do
not see any utility in education.




13. (C) COMMENT: Though the government seems, for now, to have
control over security in the Tavildara district, prospects for
long-term stability have not improved because the government has
not offered the population legitimate means for economic
development. The Tajik government was able to put down the 2009
incursion because the militants did not receive popular support,
but with up to 60% of the working age men in Russia potential
recruits were out of the country anyway. With a crumbling Tajik
education system, these Tavildarans working in Russia
increasingly will lack the language skills to defend their
rights to fair pay. With remittances from Russia declining due
to the economic crisis and a lack of investment by the Tajik
government in local infrastructure projects, the Tavildaran
population will remain vulnerable to offers from militants, drug
traffickers, or regional strongmen like Mirzo Ziyoev who have
hard currency to offer. Unfortunately, with the government's
single-minded focus on building the Roghun hydroelectric dam, it
is unlikely that any development support is forthcoming from
Dushanbe. END COMMENT.
GROSS