TAJIK ELECTIONS: IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE 2005

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000203 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM TI SUBJECT: TAJIK ELECTIONS: IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE 2005 REF: A) DUSHANBE 165 B) DUSHANBE 27 C) DUSHANBE 112 DUSHANBE 00000203 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The week before parliamentary elections, opposition party leaders reported an uptick in government harassment of their activities and a concurrent increase in local officials' support for People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) candidates. Security officials briefly detained and threatened several Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) members who distributed party leaflets in Dushanbe and Kulob. IRPT leaders warned that the environment before the February 28 elections has become increasingly similar to that of 2005 when the ruling party won in a fraud-ridden landslide. Howver, they have erected several IRPT billboards in the capital. Freedom for opposition parties to campaign has varied district to district. President Rahmon's son, Rustam, is running for a seat on the Dushanbe city council, which could be the latest step in "Operation Successor". END SUMMARY IRPT: INCREASED PARTY ACTIVITY, INCREASED PRESSURE ¶2. (SBU) On February 17, large, color posters of IRPT candidates draped IRPT headquarters as about 15 party workers manned phones, pored over reports from IRPT affiliates, and prepared bundles of slick campaign literature for distribution. IRPT organizers were confident that their party organization and dedicated support base will deliver votes on election day, but warned that government officials have put increasing pressure on IRPT members and candidates as the February 28 parliamentary elections approach. "The closer we get to elections, the more it feels like 2005," according to Deputy Chairman Wohidkhoni Qossidin. ¶3. (SBU) Qossidin reported that police detained three groups of party activists who campaigned door to door for the IRPT. Police arrested two women in Dushanbe's Sino District, held them for three hours, and interrogated them about their activities. IRPT leadership intervened by contacting government officials, and the members were released. The IRPT filed a lawsuit against the police officer. In Dushanbe's Shokmansur District, police detained two party activists for two hours. In Kulob, local officials held an IRPT candidate and several of his supporters for five hours. The police asked the party members why they were supporting "mujahedeen who killed our people in the 1990s", according to Qossidin. ¶4. (SBU) Though election officials registered all IRPT candidates seeking to run for the lower house of the national parliament, the Majlisi Namoyandagon, IRPT leaders said local officials refused to register dozens of IRPT members who filed to run in provincial and city council races. In one case, the IRPT claims that two men appeared at the home of an IRPT candidate for the Sughd provincial parliament and threatened him to withdraw from the election. According to Qossidin, the men coerced the IRPT member to sign a statement withdrawing his candidacy, which they subsequently submitted to the local election commission on his behalf. The IRPT has officially filed its complaints with the Central Commission on Elections and Referenda (CCER),but has not yet received a response. ¶5. (SBU) The IRPT has participated in public events organized by local officials for candidates to meet voters (Reftel A),but party leaders complained that local officials often invited only PDPT candidates to these public events (intended for all candidates) or informed IRPT candidates of the event only minutes before they took place. IRPT has organized its own campaign meetings separately from the state-organized public events. Qossidin said that until February 16, local officials did not permit the party to post any election banners in Dushanbe. ¶6. (SBU) In the Sughd's Isfara district, where U.S. Embassy employee Muhibulloh Qurbon is running for the Majlisi Namoyandagon as an IRPT candidate, police tore down IRPT banners and allegedly spread information that Qurbon is both an Islamist and an "American spy". According to Qurbon, local officials escorted the ruling People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) candidate to campaign events and provided him administrative support. He reported that local schoolchildren, doctors, and nurses were deployed to go house-to-house to campaign for the PDPT candidate and advise residents how to DUSHANBE 00000203 002.2 OF 003 properly vote for the PDPT on a ballot. An independent MP running for re-election in Sughd's Konibodom District had a similar account of government employees directed to support the PDPT candidate, currently the Prosecutor of Kulob. ¶7. (SBU) IRPT leaders said that party supporters will continue to organize campaign events and go door-to-door to drum up votes. They hoped that local officials would honor President Rahmon's pledge to conduct free and fair elections, but speculated that many of the precinct election commissions already received instructions for their election night vote counts. An IRPT activist worried that "if the public loses faith in elections, it gives an opportunity for extremists to say that the process is not working. It will cause us to lose people to radical elements." ¶8. (SBU) Dushanbe officials permitted the IRPT to erect campaign billboards in Dushanbe on February 16. The party placed several large, color billboards on major city roads, which remained in place on February 18. The IRPT posted smaller party fliers featuring Majlisi Namoyandagon candidates throughout the city. Embassy contacts report that election conditions in some districts outside of Dushanbe, including former opposition stronghold Rasht, have improved since 2005. A contact in Hissor district said that local officials organized an election event in which all candidates were provided equal time to address area voters. SDPT: PARTY OF LAWYERS COMPLAINS OF ELECTION VIOLATIONS ¶9. (SBU) Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) leaders met Emboff in the cramped apartment the SDPT uses as its headquarters and provided a list of alleged violations by local officials of Tajik election law. An exasperated SDPT Deputy Jillovat Jurayev and political adviser Shonusayriev Shodavlat charged that government officials routinely excluded SDPT members from public election events and cancelled several events where SDPT members were present. Following a public election event at the National Medical Center in Dushanbe at which a SDPT candidate participated, the head doctor ordered hospital employees to vote for PDPT candidates, according to the SDPT. ¶10. (SBU) SDPT leaders reported that Tajik National University administrators directed students living in Dushanbe's Sino and Somoni districts to vote for PDPT candidates. In both districts, the PDPT faces strong challengers. The SDPT also alleged that officials at the Ministry of Justice and Prosecutor General's office ordered employees to campaign for PDPT candidates. A SDPT candidate running in the Gorno Badakhshon Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) reported that the governor of GBAO provided the PDPT candidate with a government car and escorted him to campaign events. PDPT USES RAHMON'S IMAGE; RAHMON'S SON RUNS FOR CITY COUNCIL ¶11. (SBU) The President's 22-year old son, Rustam Emomali, threw his hat in the ring for the Dushanbe city council. His candidacy follows his December appointment to the PDPT's Central Committee. He already holds two posts: Deputy Head of the Youth Association of Tajikistan and Chief of the Department to Support Medium and Small Enterprises in the State Committee on Property and Investments(Reftel B). Though an article on centrasia.ru called the candidacy the "beginning of operation successor", state media has been largely mute, with only one pro-government news service reporting on Rustam's campaign. Rustam is three years too young to run for the Majlisi Namoyandagon, and it is widely speculated that he will run for national parliament in 2015. ¶12. (SBU) Large billboards bearing the President's image and PDPT slogans have been posted throughout Dushanbe, along with banners draped over the city's major roads. On one billboard, Rahmon stands in a field of flowers next to the caption, "The People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan works to make life good DUSHANBE 00000203 003.2 OF 003 and democratic for every Tajik." (NOTE: PDPT leaders argue that Rahmon's campaign endorsement is in his capacity as PDPT Chairman, not as the President. END NOTE) ODIHR AND U.S. EMBASSY GEAR UP TO DEPLOY MONITORS ¶13. (SBU) ODIHR will issue a second interim report on elections that will criticize the composition of district election commissions, which include mostly PDPT supporters. ODIHR Deputy Head of Mission Claudia Vollmer said Long Term Observers (LTOs) have "credible evidence of police interference in campaigns". LTOs have also heard reports that government officials have pressured citizens to vote for the PDPT, but ODIHR does not yet have enough evidence to include the allegation in its report. ODIHR has received OSCE Member commitments for 150 Short Term Monitors (STOs) and will deploy an additional 50 OSCE Parliamentary observers. ODIHR expects to thoroughly cover all parts of Tajikistan, except Penjikent district and GBAO. ¶14. (SBU) The CCER promptly issued observer accreditation for American and local U.S. Embassy employees. The Embassy is organizing deployment of 32 observers to 8 electoral districts. CCER officials promised that Embassy observers will have full access to precinct polling stations and district polling commissions and provided the Embassy with copies of Tajik election law for its observation teams. ¶15. (SBU) COMMENT: Though the Embassy could not confirm most of the IRPT and SDPT's allegations, they fit a pattern of local officials micro-managing public life and pressuring state employees to perform actions unrelated to their duties. Qurbon's claim that school children and doctors were deployed to campaign for the PDPT is not surprising; when the government needed money for Roghun, state employees and students were the first to get muscled (Sughd officials also deployed doctors to the 2009 cotton harvest). The arrest of the IRPT activists is troubling, but the government has not launched a war on the opposition parties. The IRPT is conductinga limited campaign, despite cases of interference by local officials. ¶16. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: The government is keen to make the elections look good and officials, from the President on down, are reading from the same talking points: the election will be free, fair, and better than in 2005. On election day, this could turn out to be true and the CCER has accommodated all of the Embassy and ODIHR's requests to accredit observers, although they broke their promise to the Ambassador to register local, non-partisan observers (Reftels A, C). It is the hope of local officials that, by supporting PDPT candidates and quietly reducing opposition parties' opportunity to campaign, they can line up votes for the PDPT to have a "clean" win on election day, and secure their own jobs too. If, however, local officials engage in widespread vote-rigging, as happened in 2005, the government may find that a well-organized IRPT will not be content to quietly accept another flawed outcome. END COMMENT GROSS