BANGLADESH SCENESETTER FOR U/S MCHALE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 DHAKA 000088 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR U/S MCHALE FROM THE AMBASSADOR ALSO FOR SCA/FO, SCA/INSB, SCA/PPD E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2035 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO ECON PINR PINS KDEM PTER BG SUBJECT: BANGLADESH SCENESETTER FOR U/S MCHALE Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Undersecretary McHale, we look forward to welcoming you to Bangladesh, a secular democracy with a moderate Muslim-majority population of nearly 160 million people that is friendly to the United States. U.S. engagement with Bangladesh to help develop its democracy and economy and counterterrorism advances U.S. interests in South Asia and beyond on Muslim outreach, climate change, food security, UN peacekeeping and other global issues. This is a surprisingly hopeful place despite the daunting problems it faces: recurring natural disasters; poverty; overpopulation; porous borders attractive to terrorists; and a political system that features two dominant mainstream parties whose leaders, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League (AL) and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairwoman Khaleda Zia, revel in petty partisanship. ¶2. (C) Yet that is only part of the story. Bangladesh has made huge progress in a number of areas, and is no longer the "international basket case" once described by a former Secretary of State. It is now an emerging democracy that in December 2008 held its freest, fairest and most credible Parliamentary elections since independence in 1971. After sweeping into power in a landslide victory in that election, Bangladesh's Awami League government overcame a number of challenges during its first year in office, most critically the February 2009 Bangladesh Rifles Mutiny. The Government delivered on its campaign promises to crack down on extremism and improve Bangladesh's international position in the region and globally. Bangladesh's economy escaped the worst effects of the global economic slowdown and remains positioned for higher growth levels in the coming years. Bangladesh, U.S. Goals and Public Diplomacy -------------- ¶3. (C) President Obama and Secretary Clinton are both extremely popular in Bangladesh. This popularity, coupled with the current political, economic and social environment, provides an excellent opportunity to advance key U.S. objectives in the nation with the fourth most Muslims in the world. The United States enjoys good will in history-conscious Bangladesh, affection stemming from Senator Edward Kennedy's early support for the creation of the country and reflected in people-to-people ties of the 500,000-strong Bangladeshi diaspora in the United States. Given Bangladesh's population, a comparatively modest U.S. Government resource investment in public diplomacy initiatives could significantly enhance our outreach efforts to achieve U.S. goals. Department funding for our requested new "Edward Kennedy" public diplomacy platform in the heart of Dhaka's 14 million plus inhabitants, support for the companion namesake grant program, and funding for the Bangladesh Youth Leadership Initiative would significantly expand Mission Dhaka's outreach efforts to targeted audiences and key opinion makers. Hasina Consolidates Power -------------- ¶4. (C) Upon returning to office in January 2009, Hasina's first priority had been to consolidate her power--first within the government and then within her party. Hasina gambled in choosing a Cabinet short on experience but long on loyalty, elevating trusted lieutenants like Foreign Minister Dipu Moni to senior positions. While some of the new Cabinet Members (notably Home Affairs Minister Sahara Khatun) faced criticism throughout the year, for the most part the Ministers have stayed out of trouble. Most importantly for Hasina, none have been involved in any major corruption scandals--a clear difference from past governments. At the same time, the Prime Minister's Office moved quickly to replace senior civil servants and military officers suspected of pro-opposition sentiments. In July, Hasina completed her consolidation of power through an Awami League Council DHAKA 00000088 002 OF 005 Meeting that sidelined the leaders of the party's "reformist" faction. Hasina ended the year the undisputed leader of her party and the nation. Recent polls showed that Hasina's government has retained much of the support that led to the party's landslide victory in the December 2008 elections that brought to an end two years of emergency rule. Governance and Political Reform Stymied -------------- ¶5. (C) To a great extent, the 2007 - 2008 Caretaker Government's primary focus was on improving governance and moving Bangladesh's politics away from the winner-take-all approach that had pushed the country to the brink in late ¶2006. Towards that end, the Caretaker Government pushed through reforms to the electoral system, pressed parties to reform, and attempted to decentralize the administration by empowering sub-district (county) level government. During the campaign, politicians from all parties pledged to make Parliament effective and improve governance, responding to a widely held demand from civil society. Backtracking, Old Habits Die Hard -------------- ¶6. (C) Almost from the beginning, however, both sides began to back track from their pre-election pledges. The opposition BNP, initially stung by their election debacle, remained outside Parliament for most of 2009. While the initial excuse for a Parliamentary boycott involved seating in the Assembly, by year's end the opposition had announced a list of 10 demands before they would return. For its part, the ruling party members of Parliament watered down a number of Caretaker reforms, including those on local government. While the Parliamentary Committees were formed with members from all parties and have been active, on a whole Parliament has been a disappointment. In December, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party held its National Council Meeting, which adopted a new Constitution and returned Opposition Leader Begum Khaleda Zia's notorious son Tarique Rahman to prominence, as the number 2 in the party. As 2010 dawns, hard-liners in the opposition have increased their calls for the opposition to take its case to the streets. For its part, the Jamaat Islami, the largest religious party, is under siege as it faces a possible judicial ban on religious political parties and the threat of war crimes trials for its senior leadership. Denying Space to Extremism -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Bangladesh's strong national identity, the history of its liberation struggle, and the legacy of moderate Islam significantly limit popular support for extremism. However, previous lack of political will, the country's porous borders, ungoverned spaces, poor service delivery, and weak rule of law have allowed space for transnational and domestic terrorists and for other illicit activities, including the trafficking of people, arms, and narcotics. As highlighted by the deadly terrorist attack on Mumbai in November 2008, transnational terrorists are becoming increasingly active and bold in South Asia. They have demonstrated their ability to use Bangladesh as a safe haven, transit point, and recruiting base. Government Committed to Fighting Extremism -------------- ¶8. (S/NF) Since forming the government, Hasina and her inner circle have stressed their determination to confront domestic and transnational terrorist groups. They believe such groups were behind attacks against the Awami League during the 2001-2006 Four Party Alliance government, including two assassination attempts against Sheikh Hasina. The Government has also realized that counterterrorism cooperation represents India's primary interest in Bangladesh and that meaningful steps against the insurgent and terrorist groups are a pre-requisite for closer ties with New Delhi. The Bangladesh Government is paying more than lip service to DHAKA 00000088 003 OF 005 fighting terrorism: its intelligence agencies arrested, and shared information with the U.S., India, and the United Kingdom derived from debriefings of members of the Pakistan-based terror group Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) operating in Bangladesh. These efforts helped disrupt plots to attack India during the run up to India's March-April general elections. Similarly, Bangladesh has sent back to the Indian Government insurgents from the United Liberation Front of Assam, who had been sheltering in Bangladesh for years. Hasina also has signaled a strong interest in attacking the root causes of extremism. For example, she has made reform of Islamic schools known as madrassas a priority. Specifically, she wants to bring thousands of heretofore-independent madrassas under government regulation to ensure they do not disseminate extremist ideologies and their curriculum prepares students to enter the mainstream economy. Law Enforcement Cooperation -------------- ¶9. (C) The Embassy plans to help Bangladesh overcome weaknesses in GOB law enforcement agencies that hinder the fight against terrorism. Using 1207 funds, the Mission soon will launch a community policing program aimed at promoting better relations between police and the communities they serve in northwest Bangladesh, long a breeding ground for Islamic extremists. The Mission also is working to help make Bangladesh's Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) a more transparent and accountable organization with respect to human rights practices so it can qualify for U.S. Government counterterrorism training. Recent arrests of members of the domestic terrorist group Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh, including its most wanted explosives expert, attest to the RAB's value as a prospective counterterrorism partner. Impediments to Economic Growth and Development -------------- - ¶10. (C) When the current government took office in January 2009, there was a great deal of concern about the potential impact of the global economic crisis on Bangladesh, in particular, possible slowdowns in exports or remittances. Throughout the year, Bangladesh's economy proved resilient, with both exports and remittances maintaining their strength and with growth forecast at more than five percent. Even if Bangladesh weathers the global downturn, it still must address the challenges it has faced for the last decade and more: chronic power shortages, decaying transport infrastructure, a weak education system, a fragile financial sector, poor governance and low government revenues, particularly taxes. If the Government can tackle even some of these problems, GDP growth could increase to seven percent to eight percent annually, a rate needed to pull Bangladesh effectively out of poverty. Donors and investors are standing by to help; U.S. bilateral assistance to Bangladesh this year will exceed USD 150 million. Our economic ties to Bangladesh reinforce our tight-knit relationship. Bilateral trade in 2009 totaled USD 4.2 billion, while remittances exceeded USD 1.2 billion. The U.S. was Bangladesh's largest export market and second largest source of remittances. Bangladesh Regains Place in International Arena -------------- -- ¶11. (C) During their first year in office, Prime Minister Hasina and Foreign Minister Moni spent a significant amount of time traveling abroad to burnish Bangladesh's reputation as a leader in the developing world. The pace of foreign travel picked up during the second half of 2009, with the Prime Minister traveling to the UN General Assembly, the Rome Food Summit, the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, and the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit. Given Bangladesh's equities, the Prime Minister played a prominent role at several of these international meetings. For her part, Foreign Minister Moni kept up a grueling schedule of bilateral and multilateral visits, including a successful visit to Washington in September 2009. Throughout, the Awami League has sought to follow a policy of "friendship to all," DHAKA 00000088 004 OF 005 which was proclaimed in the Foreign Minister's inaugural comments on Bangladesh's foreign policy. Small PD Investment to Pay Big Dividends -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities the popularity of the Obama Administration and alignment of our interests. Specifically, problems related to the American Center's current and future location should be addressed to ensure we maintain access to key influencers among Dhaka's 14 million inhabitants. As one of the most densely populated cities in one of the most densely populated countries, Mission Dhaka faces significant constraints in reaching key population groups, especially youth and students. Proposed Edward Kennedy Center to Boost U.S. Outreach -------------- -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The American Center is located more than one hour from the heart of Dhaka and its tens of thousands of students, government officials and media organizations who live and work there. To provide a new platform to reach these key population groups, post has requested $1.25 million from R via SCA/PPD to develop "The Edward Kennedy Center for Public Service and the Arts." Post envisions the Kennedy Center as a public/private partnership focused on the legacy of Senator Edward Kennedy. He is the most beloved American statesman in Bangladesh because of his on-the-ground support during the 1971 Liberation War. Bangladeshis embrace Kennedy's commitment to public service. As envisioned, the Kennedy Center would offer regular English language training, student advising, speaker presentations, outreach events and cultural programs supporting MSP objectives. The Kennedy Center would be staffed by local partners with PAS oversight. Edward Kennedy Small Grants -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Accompanying the Kennedy Center, post also proposes funding for a small grants program called "Edward Kennedy Grants." Post requested $150,000 from R via SCA/PPD to establish this grants program. This initiative would be similar to small grants programs at missions around the world. An Embassy-wide committee chaired by the PAO would choose grantees. Grants would focus on specific MSP objectives, specifically focusing on public service, social responsibility and promoting tolerance. These grants would also offer funding in the area of humanities, which is severely underfunded in Bangladesh. Post believes that with name recognition, private donors, including those from the Bangladesh diaspora community in the U.S., will provide future funds for this program. Bangladesh Youth Leadership Initiative Support -------------- -- ¶15. (SBU) Mission Dhaka also submitted a request for $110,000 to R through SCA/PPD to support the Bangladesh Youth Leadership Initiative. These funds would be used to provide leadership training to 100 high school graduates from a mix of madrassas and English and Bangla medium schools. Through active citizenship and public service, the program has already proven that students can overcome religious and socio-economic differences. Students participating in this program also commit to a three-month community service program in support of shared community objectives. Comment: U.S. Interests and Opportunities in Bangladesh -------------- -------------- ¶16. (C) We have a chance to make real progress in U.S. relations with Bangladesh and in so doing advance key U.S. interests more broadly. On issues from food security to climate change to international terrorism, U.S. and Bangladeshi views roughly coincide. The coming year presents DHAKA 00000088 005 OF 005 us with an opportunity to reap the returns on decades of close ties topped off by our steadfast support for the return of democracy. If the U.S. can help the "international basketcase" of the 1970s evolve into a reasonably prosperous, reasonably stable democracy, U.S. interests in South Asia will be on much sounder footing. Your visit will jumpstart us down this path. MORIARTY