THE TPDF PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE: FROM THE OPTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 000114 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E JTREADWELL, INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019 TAGS: MARR MCAP PGOV PREL TZ SUBJECT: THE TPDF PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE: FROM THE OPTIC OF THE U.S. DEFENSE ATTACHE Classified By: DCM Larry Andre for Reasons 1.4 b,c, and d. NOTE: This message retransmits DAO/Dar es Salaam IIR 6959 0116 10 in DOS channel for the benefit of the full interagency. ¶1. (C) Summary. Over the past two years, the Tanzanian Peoples Defense Force has taken a significantly more active role in regional and international issues while simultaneously implementing broad structural changes within its own organization. End summary. Tanzanian Military Activities in the Past Two Years -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The Tanzanian People's Defense Force (TPDF) has recently taken a significantly more active role in regional and international issues while simultaneously implementing broad structural changes within its own organization. Since 2007, the TPDF has deployed forces to the United Nations Interim Mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL),the United Nations- African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID),and will soon deploy trainers to the United Nations Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC). Furthermore, in April 2008 the TPDF spearheaded an African Union (AU) sanctioned coalition mission to re-establish the authority of the elected government of one of the Comoran Islands. Upon the successful completion of the mission, the TPDF left over 200 soldiers in the Comoros for the next nine months to assist the Comoran government in re-establishing control on the island. At the regional level, Tanzania has played a large role in both the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC). In September 2009, the TPDF deployed to a SADC stand-by brigade exercise while simultaneously hosting the EAC's first military field training exercise, Exercise Mount Kilimanjaro. Internally, over this same two-year period the TPDF implemented a significant structural change with the establishment of a land forces command. Additionally, it recently announced an ambitious 15-year modernization program focused on upgrading the TPDF's aging military hardware. A committee composed of high-ranking military and government officials has been formed to assist in the development of the modernization program and an official way forward is expected some time in 2010. Leadership and Vision within the TPDF -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) In September 2007, General Davis Mwamunyange became the TPDF's seventh Chief of Defense Forces. Under his watch, the TPDF made two significant philosophical changes. First, as described above, the TPDF decided to become more involved in regional matters to include international Peacekeeping Operations (PKO). Second, it decided to extend military-to-military cooperation beyond its traditional partners such as China and Russia to other nations, especially the United States. But while General Mwamunyange has presided over these changes, it would be a mistake to attribute the changes to him alone. The philosophical shift started two years prior when Jakaya Kikwete became the President of Tanzania. However, General Mwamunyange's predecessor, General George Waitara, resisted President Kikwete's push for the TPDF to become involved in PKO operations and to engage with non-traditional partners. Rather than openly court a disagreement with his Chief of Defense Forces, President Kikwete, in keeping with African leadership principles, astutely chose to wait until Waitara's pending retirement to implement his desired philosophical changes. (Field comment. General Waitara had two cultural "advantages" over President Kikwete. First and foremost, he was Kikwete's elder. Second, as a retired military officer, President Kikwete used to work for General Waitara. In an African context, the combination of these two factors presented problems for Kikwete.) President Kikwete then hand-picked General Mwamunyange, a person with whom he has maintained a close professional relationship with for years, to succeed General Waitara. Relations with the United States -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Prior to September 2007, the U.S. - Tanzania military-to-military relationship was limited in scope. The U.S. only recently established a U.S. Defense Attache Office in Tanzania (2000),and for much of the early part of the relationship, Tanzania's unwillingness to sign an Article 98 agreement with the U.S. further limited U.S. military engagement with the TPDF. However, within ten days of General Mwamunyange's assumption of command, U.S. - Tanzanian military relations shifted noticeably when the TPDF approached the U.S. government and requested peacekeeping training under the African Contingency Operations and Training Assistance (ACOTA) program for their forces preparing to deploy to Lebanon and Darfur. ACOTA's ability to quickly and professionally respond to this short notice request went a long ways towards establishing credibility with the TPDF. U.S. credibility was further enhanced in the spring of 2008 when the U.S. provided logistical assistance to the TPDF in support of the AU military operation in the Comoros. Over the next 18 months senior leader engagement visits by U.S. military leaders from Africa Command (AFRICOM),Naval Forces Africa (NAVAF),U.S. Army Africa, Marine Forces Africa (MARFORAF),and in particular the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn Of Africa (CJTF-HOA) served to further strengthen the bilateral relationship. In April 2009, General Mwamunyange made the first official visit by a TPDF Chief of Defense Forces to the United States, and in September 2009 President Kikwete visited the United States Military Academy at West Point where he said, "U.S. - Tanzanian military relations have never been better." The TPDF's Historical Role -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) To better understand the TPDF, one must appreciate how the TPDF sees itself. The TPDF was established in 1964 after the disbandment of the Tanganyika rifles in response to a mutiny. From its inception it was ingrained in the soldiers of the TPDF that they were a people's force under civilian control, and since that time Tanzania has enjoyed relative peace both within its borders and with its neighbors. (Field comment. Only once in its history has the TPDF been involved in a war, and that was in 1978 when an Idi Amin-led Uganda invaded the Kagera Region of Tanzania. Tanzania then invaded Uganda and overthrew Idi Amin.) Furthermore, the TPDF played a large role in supporting and training the southern African freedom movements. In the 1970s Tanzania was the home of the African National Congress (ANC),and the TPDF provided military training and assistance to freedom fighters from South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. (Field comment. RO once attended a national day event where a Defense Attache assigned to Tanzania from a SADC country became teary-eyed when talking of the pride the officer felt to represent his country in Tanzania after having been trained in Tanzania as a young lieutenant.) Throughout the late 1970s and early 1980s many Ugandans, to include President Yoweri Museveni, lived in Tanzania. The TPDF also participated in the training of the New Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) army, and DRC President Joseph Kabila attended primary school in Tanzania. Furthermore, beginning in the 1970s, Tanzania welcomed several hundred thousands of refugees due to conflicts in the Great Lakes Region and Mozambique. ¶6. (C/NF) The TPDF's past colors its perspective in many ways. First, the TPDF is rightly proud of its history as a professional military. The TPDF is proud of its role as a guarantor of national security, and is firmly committed to civilian control of the military. Second, the TPDF is proud of the historical role it played in providing military training and assistance to the freedom movements of many of its neighbors. It is this historical legacy with the SADC countries that is primarily responsible for the TPDF's participation in the AU's Southern Stand-by Brigade instead of its Eastern Brigade (EASBRIG). Third, the TPDF sees involvement in regional PKO missions as a natural extension of its historical role in providing training and assistance to neighboring African countries. Finally, as a by-product of Tanzania's status as a member of the non-aligned and front line states, the TPDF has close historical ties with both China and the Former Soviet Union; many of the TPDF's senior officers were and continue to be trained in China or Russia. This historical link affects not only the TPDF's perspective towards engagement with the U.S., but also its military culture. Strengths -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) The TPDF is a professional military that enjoys a good reputation with the general public. In many ways, the TPDF reflects Tanzania as a nation. It is a national military, drawing its enlisted soldiers from all of the country's 26 administrative regions. Like Tanzania in general, the TPDF is relatively free of tribal and religious conflicts. TPDF soldiers, like most Tanzanian civilians, see themselves as Tanzanians first, considering their ethnic and religious identities second/third. Additionally, Muslims and Christians each comprise roughly half of the military. (Field comment. In Tanzania 62 percent of the population are labeled as Christian, 35 percent as Muslims, and the remaining three percent as having traditional African beliefs.) While not a written policy, the TPDF traditionally rotates the position of Chief of Defense forces between Muslims and Christians. When the Chief of Defense Forces is Muslim, the Chief of Staff, the second-highest ranking person in the military, will be Christian, and the opposite is also true. Similarly, the TPDF appears to be ahead of both Tanzanian society and the average African military in terms of the integration of women into its work force. As an organization, the TPDF values education and professional development. TPDF soldiers are generally well-disciplined, intelligent and motivated. In November 2008 a UN military representative in Tanzania to inspect the TPDF for suitability as a UN Troop Contributing Country (TCC) to the UNAMID Mission in Darfur described his perception of Tanzania prior to his arrival in the country as, "like a black hole. We had no idea what to expect. But we have been extremely impressed." In so many ways, this comment typifies working with the TPDF. The TPDF's insular culture masks a largely competent, professional military. Weaknesses -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) The TPDF is an extremely hierarchical, secretive organization. Due to the historical importance placed on information, in particular Human Intelligence (HUMINT),the TPDF is an intelligence-driven military. This has resulted in the TPDF developing an insular culture in which information is not freely shared. A by-product of this culture is a bureaucratic organization that does not reward initiative at the lower ranks. Similarly as an organization the TPDF is very conservative. While typical of most large bureaucracies, the TPDF's insular, secretive nature exacerbates its resistance to change. Another issue is that while most senior TPDF leaders speak English well, the average TPDF soldier speaks English poorly. In general this is a reflection of the poor educational system throughout Tanzania, as well as a conscious decision by the state to de-emphasize English in favor of Swahili. However, this impacts on the TPDF's ability to participate as effectively as possible in PKO and other international military operations. Perhaps more importantly, like Tanzanian society in general, the TPDF appears to lack the capacity, to include human capital, to leverage donor support effectively or to implement change within the organization. The Chief of Defense Forces recently stated that the TPDF has the will and the manpower, but not the right equipment, to complete all of the missions it would like to undertake. ¶9. (C/NF) Despite the importance the TPDF places on military education the TPDF has shortfalls in its professional military education and training for officers and senior NCOS. Like most African militaries, the TPDF lacks the ability to project military power. The TPDF's navy consistsprimarily of six small patrol craft, and the logistical and budgetary challenges of operating a navy make it difficult for the TPDF to project even littoral presence on a routine basis. Similarly, the TPDF air force lacks strategic lift and mobility capability. Predictions -------------- ¶10. (C/NF) It is likely that the TPDF will continue to place a priority on strengthening its military ties with the U.S. However, while doing so the ever pragmatic TPDF will also continue to pursue military assistance wherever it is available, including China, Russia, Iran, Sudan, Israel, the UAE and a growing number of Arab states. ¶11. (C/NF) The TPDF will continue on its recent path of more active participation in regional and international PKO operations. The government and people of Tanzania are proud to see their military involved in PKO operations, and the TPDF sees PKO operations as a viable means to develop and maintain military proficiency. However, the TPDF's willingness to participate in PKO operations will continue to be hampered by its lack of capacity in terms of military hardware to meet the international standards required for PKO deployments. ¶12. (C/NF) The TPDF will likely expand and improve its National Service Program, which is called 'Jeshi La Kujenga Taifa' (JKT),or "military for building the nation". There has been a public discussion about whether to re-instate mandatory JKT service for all secondary school graduates, with some sectors of Tanzanian society saying that JKT provides not just good employment opportunities for Tanzanian youth, but also structure and discipline. (Field comment. See past USDAO Dar es Salaam reporting for more information on the background and history of Tanzania's national service program.) As the JKT program expands, the government of Tanzania is considering a mandate that all future applicants for police and government servicejobs must be national service graduates. ¶13. (C/NF) The TPDF will continue to place a priority on professional military education, with a focus on improvements to its Command and Staff College (CSC) located in Monduli, near Arusha. The CSC has been co-located with the Tanzania Military Academy (TMA) for several years, and the TPDF has long wanted to separate the two institutions in order to provide more focused instruction for cadets and officers alike. The TPDF also wants to build better and larger officer housing so that CSC students can bring their families to Monduli while they complete the year-long CSC course. New dormitories were completed in late 2008/early 2009, and construction on new CSC classrooms and administrative buildings has already begun at a location closer to Arusha. (Field comment. See USDAO Dar es Salaam IIR 6 959 0171 08 for more details on this new facility.) However, completion of the new CSC is entirely dependent on available funding, and given the TPDF's many PKO commitments, it is probable that construction on the CSC buildings will be delayed and will take many years to complete. ¶14. (C/NF) The TPDF will look to increase and strengthen regional ties with the EAC. The recent successful completion of Exercise Kilimanjaro, which was hosted by Tanzania, demonstrates Tanzania's commitment to the EAC. Military engagement is a vital component of Tanzania's participation in the EAC, and the TPDF will most likely work to strengthen its ties with the EAC by increasing activities and cooperation with its fellow EAC member states. In the long run, a stronger, more effective EAC with an independent military arm would likely make the TPDF reconsider its military commitment to SADC. However, in the near term the ever pragmatic TPDF will likely remain active in both the EAC and SADC. Zanzibar and Religions -------------- ¶15. (C/NF) Zanzibar has historically been over-represented (relative to its 3% share of the population) in the government and leadership of the ruling CCM party. The unofficial rotation of mainland/Zanzibar presidents was broken with the election of President Kikwete in 2005. However, as a native of Bagamoyo, a coastal town once under the Zanzibar Sultanate, Kikwete is culturally close to Zanzibaris. Kikwete's election continued the traditional rotation between Christian and Muslim presidents (matching military practice on the mainland). The fact that a similar rotation policy does not exist within the TPDF regarding Zanzibar highlights that Zanzibaris are not disproportionally represented within the TPDF, and suggests that the TPDF does not play a large role in the internal security of the Zanzibar archipelago. East African Community (EAC) -------------- ¶16. (C/NF) Tanzania has been an ambivalent partner in the EAC's movement towards greater economic (and ultimately political) integration, mainly over concerns that Kenya (and Kenyans) will take economic advantage of increased Tanzanian openness. While professing commitment to the EAC, the government has also stressed the need to move forward at a pace its people will accept. Given the TPDF's positive reputation among the Tanzanian public, closer military cooperation within the EAC may be an avenue for the government to build support for greater integration in other areas. LENHARDT