SYRIA-IRAQ UPDATE: DAMASCUS FORESEES LITTLE CHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000057 SIPDIS LONDON FOR LORD, PARIS FOR NOBLES E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2020 TAGS: PREL PREF PHUM PTER SY IZ SUBJECT: SYRIA-IRAQ UPDATE: DAMASCUS FORESEES LITTLE CHANGE IN TENSE RELATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS REF: A. 09 DAMASCUS 820 ¶B. 09 DAMASCUS 851 Classified By: CDA Charles Hunter for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: SARG officials and Iraqi diplomats agreed Iraqi-Syrian relations would likely not improve until at least after Iraqi parliamentary elections slated for March. There has been no sign of a thaw in the frostiness between Damascus and Baghdad since the withdrawal of the countries' respective ambassadors following the August 19 Baghdad bombings and Iraqi accusations of SARG support for Baathists the GOI claims were behind the attacks (reftels). Iraqi diplomats said they were disappointed "al-Rai" television continued to broadcast from Syrian soil, and that the SARG had made no effort to turn over Sadaamist "terrorists" wanted in Iraq. While senior SARG officials said they were waiting for the Iraqi elections to signal that change in Iraqi-Syrian relations would be possible, Iraqi diplomats said they have not yet made significant progress in organizing absentee voting for the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees in Syria. END SUMMARY. SARG HOPING ELECTIONS WILL SEND "BIG SIGNAL" ¶2. (C) SARG officials and Iraqi diplomats were united in their consensus that Iraqi-Syrian relations were not likely to improve until at least after March's planned Iraqi parliamentary elections. Vice Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad told us January 8 "we are waiting for the elections to send a big signal" that an improvement in bilateral relations was possible. He said that if the parliamentary elections were "successful" and convinced the Iraqi government to proceed with "political reconciliation, including with the people who were for Saddam," reconciliation between the Iraqi and Syrian governments would also be possible. "Saddam is finished, leave (his supporters) alone," he declared. ¶3. (C) Iraqi Embassy Political Chief Berivan Dosky and Media Attache Ahmed Ubaid concurred that change would have to await the upcoming elections. During a meeting on January 14, they lamented that Syria had not cooperated with the GOI in handing over Iraqi Baathists the GOI believed were behind terrorist attacks in Iraq such as the August 19 and October 25 Baghdad bombings. As Iraqi diplomats have complained in previous meetings (ref A), Ubaid said embassy personnel frequently saw leading Iraqi Baathists walking the streets of Damascus. IRAQIS UPSET OVER BAATHIST TELEVISION ¶4. (C) Dosky expressed concern that Iraqi Baathist Mishan al-Jabouri's anti-GOI television station, "al-Rai," was still on the air. After two months of rumors Jabouri would sell "al-Rai" to prominent Syrian businessman and Asad cousin Rami Makhlouf, Iraqi diplomats said the television station was still broadcasting hostile messages from Syrian soil. A prominent Iraqi businessman living in Syria told us in late December that money was the sticking point between Jabouri and Makhlouf. He said Jabouri was seeking US $500,000, an amount far more than Makhlouf was offering. An Arab diplomat said Jabouri had recently told a mutual friend he did not plan to sell the station given the offering price. "Jabouri is still traveling around Damascus with a Syrian-provided security escort, and the Syrians treat him like a VIP," the diplomat reported. ¶5. (C) Dosky said an Iraqi diplomat was in touch with Jabouri and hoped they would obtain an update on his plans soon. "We are watching this closely because it's a big issue for us," she said. Ubaid added the Iraqi embassy was pleased that a new Iraqi Baathist television station called "Saddam TV" that had broadcast its inaugural transmission from a station in the Damascus suburb of Yafour over the Eid al-Adha holiday (ref B) had apparently floundered. IRAQI EMBASSY SCRAMBLES TO ORGANIZE ELECTIONS ¶6. (C) While SARG officials waited for Iraqi legislative elections, Iraqi diplomats said they had still not made significant progress in organizing absentee voting for the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees in Syria. According to Dosky, the embassy was still not certain whether it would work with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in organizing the voting. (NOTE: UNHCR Deputy Country Representative Philippe Leclerc told Emboff January 6 that his organization would be willing to assist, but was waiting for a formal request from the Iraqi embassy. END DAMASCUS 00000057 002 OF 002 NOTE). She said a team from the Iraqi electoral commission is scheduled to travel to Syria in late January to begin preparations for the voting. "We will make sure that all Iraqis with valid identification are able to vote, and that they only vote once," she declared. ¶7. (C) The Iraqi diplomats added there had been confusion until recently over whether Iraqi refugees in Syria would cast absentee ballots for their home districts in Iraq, or would instead vote for a separate number of seats for Iraqis living abroad. The diplomats said they now understood Iraqi refugees in Syria would cast ballots for 15 seats that have been allocated to Iraqi refugees. "This has been confusing for us, too," Dosky related. ¶8. (C) Iraqi and other Arab diplomats said they expected the SARG to support, at least symbolically, Iraqi candidates opposed to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government like former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. Allawi visited Damascus in December, and Ammar al-Hakim and other Iraqi leaders competing with Maliki's supporters have made similar visits. "These visits are meant to illustrate to Iraqis in Syria that the Syrian government supports Maliki's opponents, and symbolism is important in the Arab world," a Jordanian diplomat asserted. ¶9. (C) Arab diplomats noted many of the Iraqi refugees in Syria are Sunni Arabs who do not form the basis of Maliki's support. Indeed, at recent town hall gatherings organized for Codel Hastings and Staffdel Marcus, Iraqi refugees in attendance were outspoken in their opposition to Maliki. Iraqi diplomats agreed that regardless of any SARG attempts to influence the voting, Iraqis in Syria were likely to vote against Maliki's party and its allies. "We know that most of the refugees here are Sunni Arabs and will vote against the government; we just hope that the Syrians will cooperate with us and make sure the voting is fair," Dosky stated. ¶10. COMMENT: Nearly five months after the Iraqi and Syrian ambassadors were recalled from Damascus and Baghdad, Iraqi-Syrian relations remain tense. There has been little progress on issues keeping the two sides apart - including the presence in Damascus of Iraqi Baathists wanted by the GOI and Iraqi Baathist television stations like "al-Rai" broadcasting from Syrian soil. The only thing that SARG officials and Iraqi diplomats seem to agree on these days is that little improvement is likely until at least after March's parliamentary elections. While the SARG barely conceals its hope that anti-Maliki forces will gain ground in the Iraqi parliament, it remains to be seen what steps, if any, the two sides will take to improve relations in the event the current PM's party and its allies do well in the March elections. END COMMENT. HUNTER