IRANIAN FM'S DAMASCUS VISIT MEANT TO SERVE AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000041 SIPDIS LONDON FOR LORD, PARIS FOR NOBLES E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2020 TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV SY SUBJECT: IRANIAN FM'S DAMASCUS VISIT MEANT TO SERVE AS REMINDER OF IRANIAN PRESENCE REF: A. 09 STATE 130338 ¶B. 09 DAMASCUS 880 ¶C. 09 DAMASCUS 884 Classified By: CDA Charles Hunter, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki visited Damascus on January 11, the latest in a string of visitors from Tehran during the last six weeks. Arab diplomats told us the Iranian visits reflected growing insecurity in Tehran over (1) whether Syria's warmer relations with Turkey and Arab states like Saudi Arabia and Lebanon may serve to reduce Iran's influence with the SARG; and (2) that Palestinian reconciliation efforts are proceeding without Iranian involvement. According to our contacts, the Iranians are seeking a reciprocal high-level visit soon from the SARG to Tehran to signal Syrian support for the Iranian regime as it grapples with regional challenges and internal discontent. While the two nations continued to sign bilateral agreements and cite their close ties, the Syrian-Iranian alliance faces challenges as the two nations pursue differing interests in places like Iraq and Yemen. Despite these challenges, it remained unlikely Syria would publicly break with Iran over the fundamentals of their 30-year plus relationship. END SUMMARY. IRANIAN CONCERN OVER SARG ENGAGEMENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORS ¶2. (C) Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was the latest Iranian visitor to land in Damascus, meeting President Asad, Foreign Minister Muallem, and representatives of Hamas and Islamic Jihad on January 11. Asad and Muallem visited Tehran in August and November, respectively, signaling SARG support for the Iranian regime as it came under increasing pressure at home. A Syrian parliamentary delegation also traveled to the Iranian capital last week. 3.(C) However, over the past six weeks most of the traffic has come from the other direction, with Damascus hosting a wave of Iranian visitors including high-level guests like Iranian National Security Advisor Saeed Jalili (December 3),Defense Minister Ahmed Ali Vahidi (December 9-11),and now Foreign Minister Mottaki. "Syrian-Iranian strategic relations need continuous consultation between senior officials of the two countries," Mottaki declared upon arrival in Damascus. ¶4. (C) Arab diplomats and Syrian contacts told us while visits between Syria and Iran were common, the recent volume of Iranian visitors signaled insecurity in Tehran after months of improving relations between Syria and Turkey on the one hand and between Syria and Arab states such as Lebanon and Saudi Arabia on the other. "With all of the headlines about Syria improving its relations with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and Hariri coming to Damascus, the Iranians want to pull Syria back towards them. They are worried," Algerian DCM Fritah Amor opined. "Basically the Iranians are saying 'Hi, we are still here,'" an Egyptian diplomat agreed. ¶5. (C) According to our contacts, the Iranians were troubled by the recent visits to Damascus by the Saudi king, the Lebanese and Turkish prime ministers, and last week's visit to Damascus by Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal. A Jordanian diplomat said President Asad's planned January 13 visit to Riyadh, and reports that a meeting between Asad and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is possible in the near future, are "part of the reason the Iranians are growing more worried. They want to make sure they are still holding cards here in Damascus." During December visits from Iranian officials, Asad reportedly resisted Iran's requests for more bilateral cooperation on Iraq and Yemen (ref B). Diplomats said Syria's support, in response to strident Saudi requests, of Yemen's government against the Houthi rebellion highlighted some of the fissures in the Syrian-Iranian relationship. "The Iranians have to take notice when the Syrians so publicly side with the Saudis regarding Yemen," one diplomat said. ¶6. (C) The Egyptian diplomat confirmed there was talk of Mubarak joining Asad and King Abdullah for an "Arab Unity Summit" in the near future, while stressing that no plans have been confirmed. The diplomat said while significant differences between Cairo and Damascus remain, principally over Palestinian reconciliation and Egypt's role in the peace process, President Mubarak is committed to meeting Arab leaders including Asad in advance of the Arab Summit planned for March. Other Arab diplomats concurred that any possibility of warmer ties between Damascus, Riyadh, and Cairo could pose a challenge to the Syrian-Iranian relationship. PALESTINIAN RECONCILIATION PLAYS A ROLE AS WELL ¶7. (C) Adding impetus to Iranian efforts to remain engaged with Damascus was last week's trip to Riyadh by Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Khaled Mishaal where he met the Saudi Foreign Minister. Mishaal's visit to the kingdom fueled Iranian concerns that Palestinian reconciliation efforts might proceed without their involvement. "This is why you see them here meeting with Hamas and Islamic Jihad. They want to make sure they are consulted about the Palestinian political DAMASCUS 00000041 002 OF 002 process," a Jordanian diplomat concluded. Our contacts added that reports Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas would arrive in Damascus early next week added to Iranian perceptions they might be sidelined in negotiations between Palestinian factions. THE AMERICAN FACTOR ¶8. (C) Diplomats at a range of Arab missions including the Iraqi, Egyptian, Turkish, Jordanian, Algerian and Mauritanian embassies agreed that continued U.S.-SARG engagement threatened Iranian interests in Syria, and the Teheran regime was reacting accordingly. "Here you see American visitors to Damascus meeting with Asad and Muallem, and talk of more Americans coming, and I think it does worry them," a Turkish diplomat said. "They can't be happy seeing pictures of American congressman each week meeting the president," a Jordanian diplomat agreed. The Algerian DCM concurred the Iranians would "watch closely if they America is making a move on its relations with Syria." ¶9. (C) During Mottaki's visit, the Iranians and Syrians announced new economic and technical agreements they said highlighted their close ties, including a deal to cancel entry visa requirements between the two countries next month. The Iranians had been annoyed that Syria had signed such an agreement with Turkey before coming to a similar agreement with Iran. After Mottaki's departure, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke with President Asad on the telephone. According to media reports, the Iranian president "underscored that Iran and Syria have a bright future together." The Iranian Presidential Office website carried a statement declaring "regional developments are changing in favor of Iran and Syria because of their resistance." ¶10. (C) But despite the usual statements trumpeting Syrian-Iranian relations at the conclusion of the visit, even SARG officials concede conflicts between Damascus and Tehran remained as they pursued varied interests in places like Yemen and Iraq. In a meeting with Staffdel Marcus on January 9, Vice Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad noted differences between Damascus and Teheran on the role Baathists could play in Iraq. "We have differences with Iran. For example, we believe reconciliation is possible in Iraq including with those who were for Saddam," Miqdad related. ¶11. (C) Note: Vice Foreign Minister Miqdad's Chief of Staff, Hussam A'ala, was unable to confirm whether SARG officials raised with Mottaki the fate of the three American hikers detained in Iran, per the request presented by letter to Miqdad last month (refs. A and C). We will continue to seek clarification on this point. 12.(C) COMMENT: After a string of high-level Iranian visitors, the Teheran regime may now seek a visit to Iran by President Asad or Foreign Minister Muallem to signal Damascus' support of the Syrian-Iranian relationship and the Iranian regime as it faces regional and internal challenges. While the visits highlight the close ties the countries have enjoyed since the 1979 Iranian revolution, Damascus and Teheran must still grapple with their differences. It is unlikely Syria will forsake its relations with Iran in the nearterm, but that might not be enough to reassure an Iranian regime warily watching Syria's continued engagement with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Lebanese government, and the United States. END COMMENT. HUNTER