AFGHANISTAN LONDON CONFERENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000053 SIPDIS STATE FOR S/SRAP:JBLANC, SCA/A:TGRAMAGLIA AND CCOBERLY E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2020 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EFIN AF DA SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN LONDON CONFERENCE REF: STATE 6355 Classified By: Ambassador Laurie S. Fulton; reason 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Denmark intends to speak constructively at the London conference on Afghanistan, is supportive of the Afghan reintegration program and will consider seeking funding to support the new Trust Fund, and is preparing an analytical paper on how to proceed in a regional context to promote positive developments and combat negative ones in Afghanistan-Pakistan. The Danes would have liked to be better informed about plans to split Regional Command South into two. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Denmark does plan an announcement at the London conference on Afghanistan, expressing support for the hosts and trying to push the agenda forward, according to MFA Stabilization Department Head Rolf Holmboe. He said the Danes will stress that the international community needs the Government of Afghanistan to present its plan, and that any mention of dates needs to be coordinated and based on conditions on the ground. ¶3. (C) Holmboe noted diplomatically that his Government would have liked to be better informed about plans to split Regional Command South into two (Southwest and Southeast). It was not involved in the decision, but heard about it through the rumor mill. Holmboe acknowledged that this is a command decision and therefore the commander's prerogative, but "every command decision in Afghanistan has political implications." ¶4. (C) On reintegration, Denmark supports the process fully. Holmboe doubted there would be much progress until the Afghan people decided that ours was the winning side, but he considered it "important to be ready." Denmark is "looking positively" at contributing to the new Trust Fund, and to that end is seeking more information about it. (NOTE: British DCM Libby Townshend told A/DCM January 22 that the Danish MFA had told her Denmark would not contribute initially, as its budget is already allocated. Holmboe, on the other hand, expressed confidence January 25 that money could be found in the fairly near future. END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) On governance, Holmboe said a phased process is needed that includes the civilian side, and operational planning for developing civilian capabilities needs to start now: if the Afghan security forces develop faster than the civilian authorities, we risk "a new warlordism." The Helmand PRT on which the Danes serve is working to help the GoA roll out its development plan this year; that will be "hard to do." ¶6. (C) Holmboe mentioned a recent regional meeting of Danish ambassadors in New Delhi that served to launch an internal analysis of how to proceed in a regional context to promote positive opportunities and combat negative developments in Afghanistan-Pakistan, e.g. through strengthening Turkey's role and encouraging China to invest. Denmark intends to work within the EU and NATO once its concept is firmed up. A first draft of the Danish paper is expected "in April or May"; the Asia Department of MFA has the pen. FULTON