(C) MIDEAST PEACE: DANISH MFA FLOATS A LOW-KEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000102 SIPDIS STATE FOR S/SEMEP, NEA, S/P, EUR/ERA, EUR/NB, EUR/SE NSC FOR DENNIS ROSS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2020 TAGS: PREL KPAL XF SUBJECT: (C) MIDEAST PEACE: DANISH MFA FLOATS A LOW-KEY MULTILATERAL INITIATIVE Classified By: Ambassador Laurie S. Fulton; reason 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA briefed the Embassy on an initiative it is exploring - pending approval from FM Moeller - to promote low-key cooperation among Israel and its neighbors. Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and Qatar responded favorably during an exploratory visit in January. Palestinian interest will be gauged the week of February 22. Denmark "would not do anything the U.S. opposed"; encouraged by the Danish Embassy's consultations with the State Department February 18, MFA staff intend to seek FM Moeller's authorization to move forward, probably by inviting the parties to a "dialogue group" meeting in Denmark this spring. The FM is seeking to meet with the Secretary in late March, ahead of the Ottawa meeting of the five Arctic littoral states; this initiative is one of the topics on his agenda. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Allan Pagh Kristensen, Deputy Head of MFA's Middle East Department, briefed A/DCM February 19 on an initiative the MFA has been exploring since last summer to encourage low-key practical cooperation among Israel and its neighbors. Kristensen made clear that his briefing was in parallel to consultations the Danish Embassy in Washington had held the previous day with Anne-Marie Slaughter (S/P) and Fred Hof (S/SEMEP). Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller - who has long taken a keen interest in the Mideast - had authorized the ministry last summer to explore ways Denmark could help bring the parties to the Arab-Israeli conflict together. However, Moeller has not yet been briefed on, let alone approved, the fleshed-out proposal that has emerged. This proposal is the fruit of a process that included brainstorming in Copenhagen in November with Egyptian, Jordanian, Israeli, Moroccan and Turkish participants, and a visit to the region in early January by Kristensen, accompanied by Canadian Prof. Peter Jones and a Danish researcher. (NOTE: Kristensen said Prof. Jones briefed Dennis Ross on February 18. END NOTE.) The January tour drew encouraging reactions from Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and Turkey, while Syria made clear it was not ready to engage with Israel, and Saudi Arabia was hesitant, though interlocutors in its National Security Council were interested. Kristensen remarked that Denmark may seek USG help in moving the Saudis forward. Kristensen's boss, Middle East Department Head Michael Lund Jeppesen, will travel to Ramallah the week of January 22 to present the proposed initiative to the Palestinian Authority's Foreign Minister, and expects a favorable response. Denmark considers Palestinian participation "on an equal footing with Israel" to be essential, but the Palestinian Authority would not have been receptive in January, and the Danes did not approach them; Kristensen was confident that the PA would be more receptive now. ¶3. (C) The concept of the Danish initiative is for the Mideastern participants, working without publicity, to form a steering group and, under it, working groups to discuss subjects of shared interest, with a view to producing recommendations to governments. The Danes are flexible as to their own role, and as to whether the Mideastern participants are government officials or not, provided they have their respective governments' ear and blessing. Possible subjects that were identified during the January trip include: climate change (Denmark has a great deal of expertise), preparedness against pandemics, regional infrastructure, vocational training, youth unemployment, and women's rights and empowerment. Political subjects should be avoided, as should any where Israel would be too dominant or where the gaps in technological level between the parties would be too great. The steering group would decide on subjects. Kristensen said there might only be two working groups to start with. If the initiative grows, it will be necessary to bring in other external partners, but those must be chosen carefully: some of the larger European nations are viewed as biased in certain Mideastern capitals. During their January consultations, the Danes heard that while USG awareness and support are indispensable, direct USG involvement in the early stages of the initiative could be counterproductive. ¶4. (C) Kristensen said Denmark "would not do anything the U.S. opposed," and the time was ripe to brief the USG. This was done through the Danish Embassy February 18, and the response was sufficiently favorable that MFA will put the proposed initiative to FM Moeller for decision. Assuming the Palestinians respond favorably and the FM gives his approval, MFA's next step will probably be to invite the regional parties to a "dialogue group" (i.e. steering group) meeting in Denmark this spring. ¶5. (C) Through the Danish Embassy in Washington, FM Moeller is seeking a meeting with the Secretary in late March, ahead of the Ottawa meeting of the five Arctic littoral states; this initiative is one of the topics on his agenda. Kristensen hoped to meet again with the Embassy FULTON