PM OFFICE ILL EQUIPED TO HANDLE NEW RESPONSIBILITES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000084 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM GV SUBJECT: PM OFFICE ILL EQUIPED TO HANDLE NEW RESPONSIBILITES REF: A. CONAKRY 00077 ¶B. 09 CONAKRY 00433 Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Moller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting with Ambassador Moller, RSO, and A/PolChief on February 3, Minister of Security and First Vice President General Mamadou "Toto" Camara reiterated that no one in the CNDD or the military, including himself and Interim President Sekouba Konate, was interested in keeping power. He promised that the military would not hinder the election process and would support the six month transition time frame. On February 2, World Bank Country Director Siaka Bakayoko noted that government power has shifted from Camp Alpha Yaya to the Prime Minister's office. While this is welcome news, he said that the civilian leadership is currently ill-equipped to handle their new responsibilities and will require considerable support from the international community and the Forces Vives to move the transition government forward effectively. END SUMMARY. -------------- MILITARY WILL NOT INTERFERE -------------- ¶2. (C) During a meeting at his office, Toto Camara told Ambassador Moller that the CNDD "decided to execute the transition" in the manner outlined by the Ouagadougou Declaration. According to Toto, the most important quality of the transition will be that no one within the CNDD or the military wants to run for office. He assured the Ambassador that Konate, Toto, and the rest of the military do not want to keep power after the transition. ¶3. (C) Toto said that with international aid and advice in restructuring the military, the country will be ready for elections in six months. However, the international community and the transition government need to work to change the mentality of the military by convincing them that the CNDD way of governing is finished, and that it is time to "govern with the head instead of with guns." He said that the September 28 violence was a shame for the people of Guinea that could have been avoided. Despite this shame, he argued that everyone needs to accept and forgive each other as a form of reconciliation. ¶4. (C) In order to show how the military is engaged with the transition, Toto noted that the CNDD and Dore are currently working to form a base for democracy and begin to change the mentality of Guineans. Pointing to US demography, Toto argued that Guinea needs to overcome ethnic problems, just as Americans have embraced their own diversity. When pressed by the Ambassador to help to prepare for elections within six months, Toto said that he would work with "the lady" who will head the National Transition Council (CNT),presumably Rabiatou Diallo (reftel),to push for elections in the specified time frame. In closing, Toto thanked the US for their strong engagement with Guinea. He then said "fifty years is too long for what we have now, we have to move forward." -------------- THE TROUBLES WITH CIVILIAN RULE -------------- ¶5. (C) In a meeting on Feb 3 with Ambassador Moller and A/PolChief, Siaka Bakayoko, Country Director of the World Bank, said that the military has passed the responsibilities for most ministries to the office of the Prime Minister. However, Siaka noted, Dore is working almost completely alone in this capacity and has no one around him with the skill or experience necessary to run a government. According to Siaka, Dore conducts a majority of his meetings from his house where people wait in line to meet him - Dore apparently sits for meeting after meeting without taking notes or consulting with any one else. Siaka told the Ambassador that he had to wait several hours past the scheduled time for a recent meeting while Dore, who had simply forgotten he had a meeting, had gone to lunch. When Siaka was attempting to explain how Guinea can obtain World Bank and IMF funding, Dore jotted only a few words down on a small post-it note. Siaka said that he talked to Francois Fall and Sidya Toure to try to convince the Forces Vives to create a small group of CONAKRY 00000084 002 OF 002 unofficial advisors to help get Dore on track as PM, especially due to the fact that Dore has not worked in nearly 30 years. -------------- WORLD BANK PERSPECTIVE -------------- ¶7. (C) Siaka said that the GOG is currently $15 million USD in arrears to the World Bank, which will continue to accrue at $3 million a month. Although the World Bank is unable to initiate official programming until the GOG begins payments, the WB headquarters has already unofficially agreed to move funding forward when the transition government is formed. Siaka noted that by circumventing the Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Commerce, Dadis destroyed the mechanisms in one year that the WB worked for twenty years to create. The organization would therefore like to restart its programming as soon as possible. However, Siaka is having a hard time finding anyone in the current government that is willing to engage on this matter. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Toto Camara, while generally respected by the civilian population, suffered a great deal of humiliation when harassed and beaten by one of Toumba's sergeants in the Presidential Guard in June, 2009 (reftel). Due to this incident, as well as his presumed non-involvement in the September 28 massacre, the Guinean population tends to see Toto as more of a force of opposition than a close member of the CNDD. While it is reassuring that he and Konate seem uninterested in running for office or keeping power after elections, his statement that no one else in the military wants to take power may be overly optimistic. However, he seems to be dedicated to handing the role of governance to civilians and training the military to remain out of the forefront of political decision making. ¶9. (C) It is also reassuring that Konate redistributed government power from the military to the civilian PM. However, it is imperative that Dore create a cabinet and surround himself with people with experience in governing. If the civilian government does not move quickly to prove to the nation (and the military) that it can actually govern and prepare for elections in six months, their power and popularity may be put in jeopardy. Moller