1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting with Ambassador Moller, RSO,
and A/PolChief on February 3, Minister of Security and First
Vice President General Mamadou "Toto" Camara reiterated that
no one in the CNDD or the military, including himself and
Interim President Sekouba Konate, was interested in keeping
power. He promised that the military would not hinder the
election process and would support the six month transition
time frame. On February 2, World Bank Country Director Siaka
Bakayoko noted that government power has shifted from Camp
Alpha Yaya to the Prime Minister's office. While this is
welcome news, he said that the civilian leadership is
currently ill-equipped to handle their new responsibilities
and will require considerable support from the international
community and the Forces Vives to move the transition
government forward effectively. END SUMMARY.




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MILITARY WILL NOT INTERFERE


--------------------------






2. (C) During a meeting at his office, Toto Camara told
Ambassador Moller that the CNDD "decided to execute the
transition" in the manner outlined by the Ouagadougou
Declaration. According to Toto, the most important quality of
the transition will be that no one within the CNDD or the
military wants to run for office. He assured the Ambassador
that Konate, Toto, and the rest of the military do not want
to keep power after the transition.




3. (C) Toto said that with international aid and advice in
restructuring the military, the country will be ready for
elections in six months. However, the international community
and the transition government need to work to change the
mentality of the military by convincing them that the CNDD
way of governing is finished, and that it is time to "govern
with the head instead of with guns." He said that the
September 28 violence was a shame for the people of Guinea
that could have been avoided. Despite this shame, he argued
that everyone needs to accept and forgive each other as a
form of reconciliation.




4. (C) In order to show how the military is engaged with the
transition, Toto noted that the CNDD and Dore are currently
working to form a base for democracy and begin to change the
mentality of Guineans. Pointing to US demography, Toto argued
that Guinea needs to overcome ethnic problems, just as
Americans have embraced their own diversity. When pressed by
the Ambassador to help to prepare for elections within six
months, Toto said that he would work with "the lady" who will
head the National Transition Council (CNT), presumably
Rabiatou Diallo (reftel), to push for elections in the
specified time frame. In closing, Toto thanked the US for
their strong engagement with Guinea. He then said "fifty
years is too long for what we have now, we have to move
forward."




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THE TROUBLES WITH CIVILIAN RULE


--------------------------






5. (C) In a meeting on Feb 3 with Ambassador Moller and
A/PolChief, Siaka Bakayoko, Country Director of the World
Bank, said that the military has passed the responsibilities
for most ministries to the office of the Prime Minister.
However, Siaka noted, Dore is working almost completely alone
in this capacity and has no one around him with the skill or
experience necessary to run a government. According to Siaka,
Dore conducts a majority of his meetings from his house where
people wait in line to meet him - Dore apparently sits for
meeting after meeting without taking notes or consulting with
any one else. Siaka told the Ambassador that he had to wait
several hours past the scheduled time for a recent meeting
while Dore, who had simply forgotten he had a meeting, had
gone to lunch. When Siaka was attempting to explain how
Guinea can obtain World Bank and IMF funding, Dore jotted
only a few words down on a small post-it note. Siaka said
that he talked to Francois Fall and Sidya Toure to try to
convince the Forces Vives to create a small group of

CONAKRY 00000084 002 OF 002


unofficial advisors to help get Dore on track as PM,
especially due to the fact that Dore has not worked in nearly
30 years.




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WORLD BANK PERSPECTIVE


--------------------------






7. (C) Siaka said that the GOG is currently $15 million USD
in arrears to the World Bank, which will continue to accrue
at $3 million a month. Although the World Bank is unable to
initiate official programming until the GOG begins payments,
the WB headquarters has already unofficially agreed to move
funding forward when the transition government is formed.
Siaka noted that by circumventing the Central Bank, Ministry
of Finance, and Ministry of Commerce, Dadis destroyed the
mechanisms in one year that the WB worked for twenty years to
create. The organization would therefore like to restart its
programming as soon as possible. However, Siaka is having a
hard time finding anyone in the current government that is
willing to engage on this matter.




--------------------------


COMMENT


--------------------------






8. (C) Toto Camara, while generally respected by the civilian
population, suffered a great deal of humiliation when
harassed and beaten by one of Toumba's sergeants in the
Presidential Guard in June, 2009 (reftel). Due to this
incident, as well as his presumed non-involvement in the
September 28 massacre, the Guinean population tends to see
Toto as more of a force of opposition than a close member of
the CNDD. While it is reassuring that he and Konate seem
uninterested in running for office or keeping power after
elections, his statement that no one else in the military
wants to take power may be overly optimistic. However, he
seems to be dedicated to handing the role of governance to
civilians and training the military to remain out of the
forefront of political decision making.




9. (C) It is also reassuring that Konate redistributed
government power from the military to the civilian PM.
However, it is imperative that Dore create a cabinet and
surround himself with people with experience in governing. If
the civilian government does not move quickly to prove to the
nation (and the military) that it can actually govern and
prepare for elections in six months, their power and
popularity may be put in jeopardy.
Moller