SIDYA TOURE PREPARING FOR ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000081 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: SIDYA TOURE PREPARING FOR ELECTIONS REF: CONAKRY 00077 Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA MOLLER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador Moller and A/PolChief met with former PM and President of Union of Republican Forces (UFR) Sidya Toure on Feb 2 to discuss the formation of the transition government. Seeming more Presidential candidate than member of the Forces Vives, Toure focused primarily on reforms needed after elections in 6 months. In contrast to Forces Vives spokesman Francois Fall (reftel),Toure conveyed confidence in the transition process, and believes that neither Jean Marie Dore nor the Guinean military will attempt to keep power in the long-term. END SUMMARY. -------------- GEARING TOWARD ELECTIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) During the meeting, Toure seemed focused more on elections than on the current activities of the Forces Vives and the transition government. In his opinion, the goal of the international community and the Forces Vives during the transition should be to ensure that all parties stay true to their commitments vis--vis the election process. With constant pressure, he believes that Dore, Konate, and the CNDD will not impede the transition. ¶3. (C) In order to ensure that all actors are held to their word, the Forces Vives plans to ask Dore and the rest of his government to sign a document outlining the exact responsibilities of the transition and ensuring that no one in the transition government, the CNDD, or those implicated in the September 28 massacre can run in upcoming elections. If Dore refuses to sign, Sidya said that the Forces Vives will ask Konate to withdraw their PM nomination in favor of a new nomination. He noted that Dore is not strong, and will likely comply with the request. ¶4. (C) Toure echoed Fall in insisting that no individual implicated in the September 28 can be included in the government. Toure noted that the military will provide the official nomination of ten CNDD members to Dore this afternoon, but that it will likely contain names of people implicated in the massacre and will therefore be sent back to Konate for revisions. Toure does not envision the naming of the transition government for at least two or three weeks due to the complications and disagreements between the military and the Forces Vives, and among the Forces Vives themselves. ¶5. (C) In what he later called a "campaign idea," Toure told the Ambassador that the military sector cannot be reformed until private sector employment is increased and poverty is reduced. According to Toure, not even Konate knows the number of active Guinean military. The military sector cannot truly professionalize without providing other viable employment options. After elections, Toure said that the CNDD as a political force would cease to exist and the military would have to go back to their barracks and stay out of politics. He also noted that Guinea needs to embark on a process of national reconciliation between the military and civilians after elections to remind everyone that a new government will be for all Guineans, not just one ethnic group. ¶6. (C) When asked if he would be participating in the transition government, Toure laughed and said, "of course not - then I couldn't be President." He then joked that if he could still be a candidate in the elections and participate in the transition government, he would have made a much stronger PM choice than Dore. Since that isn't the case, he will focus on the campaign season. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Toure does not seemed concerned that Dore and the CNDD will become impediments to the transition. In fact, it seems that Toure has already moved away from supporting the transition itself and began focusing on his campaign strategy. However, the two politicians spoke with one voice in that they will not accept Dore's floundering on the issue CONAKRY 00000081 002 OF 002 of his candidacy. Again in agreement however, Toure and Fall both seem to believe that Dore can be pressured into ruling out his candidacy in the upcoming elections. Toure was almost flippant about the transition government, as if to imply that the composition of the transition is only important as a means to facilitate elections. While it is a welcome sign that politicians are getting in gear to prepare for elections, it is imperative that well-respected politicians like Toure and Fall remain engaged as part of the Forces Vives to provide needed support, criticism, and guidance to Dore and the transition government. Moller