FRANCOIS FALL SKEPTICAL OF DORE'S INTENTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000077 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2010 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: FRANCOIS FALL SKEPTICAL OF DORE'S INTENTIONS REF: A. CONAKRY 00072 ¶B. CONAKRY 00049 ¶C. CONAKRY 00046 Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Moller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) On February 1, Ambassador Moller met with former PM, and newly appointed spokesperson for the Forces Vives (reftel A),Francois Lonceny Fall. Fall told the Ambassador that Guinea, for the first time, has a window of opportunity for democracy. However, he noted that there are problems within the military and among the Forces Vives that could derail political progress. According to Fall, neither the Forces Vives, nor the Guinean public, trust Jean Marie Dore to relinquish power. Fall and a small group of political leaders plan to pressure Dore to rule out his candidacy in 2010 immediately or step down from the PM office. He also expressed concern about the role that Claude Pivi could play in the transition government. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE DORE FACTOR -------------- ¶2. (C) In a candid and frank discussion with the Ambassador, Fall expressed both his optimism about the transition and his fear that power hungry individuals could subvert the process. Focusing primarily on Jean Marie Dore's refusal to rule out his candidacy in upcoming elections, Fall said that international and internal pressure needs to be focused on keeping Dore on track to prepare for democratic elections, in which no one from the CNDD, CNT, or the transition government could run, in six months. ¶3. (C) According to Fall, Dore has mentioned privately that he would like to run for President. Though Fall doesn't think that Dore has sufficient popular support to win a general election, his candidacy would violate the Ouagadougou Declaration and set a bad precedent for the CNDD and the rest of the transition government. It would also portray the Forces Vives as weak in their opposition to the PM office. Fall intends to lead a delegation to Dore's residence tomorrow morning to pressure Dore to renounce his possible candidacy. If he continues to be noncommittal on the issue, the Forces Vives will apparently ask him to step down immediately. Pointing out Dore's political past, he noted that "Dore hasn't worked in nearly 30 years, how could he really think he could be PM or President?" ¶4. (C) Calling Dore the "military choice" for PM, Fall noted that he is having the same conversations about candidacy with Dore as he was with Dadis Camara this time last year. However, he said, Dore is not Dadis - he will give in to pressure. As such, he suggested that the members of the International Contact Group meet with Dore at least once a week to pressure him to move in the right direction. He suggested that he and the Forces Vives would also meet with him often and apply direct pressure. If, at any point, it seems that he will try to run for President, the group will demand his resignation. -------------- THE "RABIATOU PROBLEM" -------------- ¶5. (C) Fall noted that union leader Rabiatou Diallo is increasingly becoming a problem within the Forces Vives. According to Fall, Diallo is demanding inclusion in the cabinet as either the Minister of Territorial Administration or head of the CNT (reftel B). Fall argued that it would be impossible to have Rabiatou, a Peuhl (Fulani),as the Minister of Territorial Administration in the current ethnically-charged political climate. Even though she does not have the education necessary to lead the CNT, the Forces Vives may be willing to concede Rabiatou the position of CNT chairperson in the interest of consensus. "What is most important is not who is in the cabinet," Fall said, "but that work on the transition starts shortly." -------------- THE MILITARY ISSUE -------------- ¶6. (C) Fall noted that the weight of the transition lies CONAKRY 00000077 002 OF 002 primarily on Konate's shoulders, and that he is possibly the only hope for the transition. Singling out Pivi, Fall said that many of Dadis, cronies are not likely to leave power quietly. While he believes that Moussa Tiegboro Camara is fairly neutralized for the time being (reftel C),Pivi still presents a risk to stability and has no place in the transition government. The Forces Vives will oppose the appointment of any individual named by the UN Commission of Inquiry as carrying out the September 28 massacre. In this context, Pivi has been circulating as a possible nomination for Presidential Security and Political Secretary for Political leaders. Fall noted that Pivi had no place in the government, nor did he belong in Conakry's barracks. He expressed concern that Pivi's inclusion in the government could be a sticking point between the Forces Vies and the CNDD. -------------- BALANCING THE TRANSITION -------------- ¶7. (C) In regards to the CNT, Fall noted that there is considerable debate about appointing a religious head to the group. He argued that the Peuhl will not accept more Christians into the government. Fall noted that while Monsignor Gomez, a well respected Anglican clergyman, has been mentioned for the job, the Peuhl opposition to his appointment could be formidable. Fall said that there is an ethnic problem in Guinea, but not yet a religious problem. With a heavily Christian government, the Peuhl may believe that the Christians are dominating politics, creating resentment within the community. ¶8. (C) In an aside, Fall shared his thoughts on young political leader and President of the New Democratic Force party Mouctar Diallo. Fall argued that Mouctar has been recently excluded from decision making in the Forces Vives due to his affiliation with Compaore and Dadis during the Ouagadougou negotiations. According to Fall, Blaise Compaore, who was firmly in support of Dadis during the negotiations, was searching for a weak member of the opposition who he could convince to act as Dadis' Prime Minister. Fall said that Compaore convinced Mouctar, who had little money and sparse political experience, to work with Dadis. Mouctar then apparently linked with the Forces Nouvelles in Cote D'Ivoire on behalf of Compaore, presumably to facilitate weapons transfers. Fall said that despite his past mistakes, Mouctar still has a promising future in Guinean politics, and will likely be part of the transition cabinet. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Fall seems to believe that Dore can be convinced to lead Guinea to elections in six months if the international community and the Forces Vives apply constant pressure on him to do so. Fall's conviction that the Forces Vives will ask Dore to step down if he does not renounce his possible candidacy is a strong one and, if true, will show that the group has learned from mistakes made with the CNDD. ¶9. (C) As the new spokesperson for the Forces Vives, Fall will have significant influence over the group's actions in the coming months. If they remain firm on the issue of Dore's candidacy and the six month time frame, the possibility of Guinea having democratic elections will be much greater. If, however, they acquiesce to Dore's candidacy and allow referendums and delays, the transition period could be drawn out. The Forces Vives has a past of political divisions and splintering opinions, but they must remain united around a common message toward elections if the country is to move toward democracy. Moller