FRANCOIS FALL SKEPTICAL OF DORE'S INTENTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000077

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: FRANCOIS FALL SKEPTICAL OF DORE'S INTENTIONS

REF: A. CONAKRY 00072

B. CONAKRY 00049

C. CONAKRY 00046

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Moller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) On February 1, Ambassador Moller met with former PM,
and newly appointed spokesperson for the Forces Vives (reftel
A),Francois Lonceny Fall. Fall told the Ambassador that
Guinea, for the first time, has a window of opportunity for
democracy. However, he noted that there are problems within
the military and among the Forces Vives that could derail
political progress. According to Fall, neither the Forces
Vives, nor the Guinean public, trust Jean Marie Dore to
relinquish power. Fall and a small group of political leaders
plan to pressure Dore to rule out his candidacy in 2010
immediately or step down from the PM office. He also
expressed concern about the role that Claude Pivi could play
in the transition government. END SUMMARY.


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THE DORE FACTOR
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2. (C) In a candid and frank discussion with the Ambassador,
Fall expressed both his optimism about the transition and his
fear that power hungry individuals could subvert the process.
Focusing primarily on Jean Marie Dore's refusal to rule out
his candidacy in upcoming elections, Fall said that
international and internal pressure needs to be focused on
keeping Dore on track to prepare for democratic elections, in
which no one from the CNDD, CNT, or the transition government
could run, in six months.



3. (C) According to Fall, Dore has mentioned privately that
he would like to run for President. Though Fall doesn't think
that Dore has sufficient popular support to win a general
election, his candidacy would violate the Ouagadougou
Declaration and set a bad precedent for the CNDD and the rest
of the transition government. It would also portray the
Forces Vives as weak in their opposition to the PM office.
Fall intends to lead a delegation to Dore's residence
tomorrow morning to pressure Dore to renounce his possible
candidacy. If he continues to be noncommittal on the issue,
the Forces Vives will apparently ask him to step down
immediately. Pointing out Dore's political past, he noted
that "Dore hasn't worked in nearly 30 years, how could he
really think he could be PM or President?"



4. (C) Calling Dore the "military choice" for PM, Fall noted
that he is having the same conversations about candidacy with
Dore as he was with Dadis Camara this time last year.
However, he said, Dore is not Dadis - he will give in to
pressure. As such, he suggested that the members of the
International Contact Group meet with Dore at least once a
week to pressure him to move in the right direction. He
suggested that he and the Forces Vives would also meet with
him often and apply direct pressure. If, at any point, it
seems that he will try to run for President, the group will
demand his resignation.


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THE "RABIATOU PROBLEM"
--------------


5. (C) Fall noted that union leader Rabiatou Diallo is
increasingly becoming a problem within the Forces Vives.
According to Fall, Diallo is demanding inclusion in the
cabinet as either the Minister of Territorial Administration
or head of the CNT (reftel B). Fall argued that it would be
impossible to have Rabiatou, a Peuhl (Fulani),as the
Minister of Territorial Administration in the current
ethnically-charged political climate. Even though she does
not have the education necessary to lead the CNT, the Forces
Vives may be willing to concede Rabiatou the position of CNT
chairperson in the interest of consensus. "What is most
important is not who is in the cabinet," Fall said, "but that
work on the transition starts shortly."

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THE MILITARY ISSUE
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6. (C) Fall noted that the weight of the transition lies

CONAKRY 00000077 002 OF 002


primarily on Konate's shoulders, and that he is possibly the
only hope for the transition. Singling out Pivi, Fall said
that many of Dadis, cronies are not likely to leave power
quietly. While he believes that Moussa Tiegboro Camara is
fairly neutralized for the time being (reftel C),Pivi still
presents a risk to stability and has no place in the
transition government. The Forces Vives will oppose the
appointment of any individual named by the UN Commission of
Inquiry as carrying out the September 28 massacre. In this
context, Pivi has been circulating as a possible nomination
for Presidential Security and Political Secretary for
Political leaders. Fall noted that Pivi had no place in the
government, nor did he belong in Conakry's barracks. He
expressed concern that Pivi's inclusion in the government
could be a sticking point between the Forces Vies and the
CNDD.

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BALANCING THE TRANSITION
--------------


7. (C) In regards to the CNT, Fall noted that there is
considerable debate about appointing a religious head to the
group. He argued that the Peuhl will not accept more
Christians into the government. Fall noted that while
Monsignor Gomez, a well respected Anglican clergyman, has
been mentioned for the job, the Peuhl opposition to his
appointment could be formidable. Fall said that there is an
ethnic problem in Guinea, but not yet a religious problem.
With a heavily Christian government, the Peuhl may believe
that the Christians are dominating politics, creating
resentment within the community.


8. (C) In an aside, Fall shared his thoughts on young
political leader and President of the New Democratic Force
party Mouctar Diallo. Fall argued that Mouctar has been
recently excluded from decision making in the Forces Vives
due to his affiliation with Compaore and Dadis during the
Ouagadougou negotiations. According to Fall, Blaise Compaore,
who was firmly in support of Dadis during the negotiations,
was searching for a weak member of the opposition who he
could convince to act as Dadis' Prime Minister. Fall said
that Compaore convinced Mouctar, who had little money and
sparse political experience, to work with Dadis. Mouctar then
apparently linked with the Forces Nouvelles in Cote D'Ivoire
on behalf of Compaore, presumably to facilitate weapons
transfers. Fall said that despite his past mistakes, Mouctar
still has a promising future in Guinean politics, and will
likely be part of the transition cabinet.

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COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Fall seems to believe that Dore can be convinced to
lead Guinea to elections in six months if the international
community and the Forces Vives apply constant pressure on him
to do so. Fall's conviction that the Forces Vives will ask
Dore to step down if he does not renounce his possible
candidacy is a strong one and, if true, will show that the
group has learned from mistakes made with the CNDD.


9. (C) As the new spokesperson for the Forces Vives, Fall
will have significant influence over the group's actions in
the coming months. If they remain firm on the issue of Dore's
candidacy and the six month time frame, the possibility of
Guinea having democratic elections will be much greater. If,
however, they acquiesce to Dore's candidacy and allow
referendums and delays, the transition period could be drawn
out. The Forces Vives has a past of political divisions and
splintering opinions, but they must remain united around a
common message toward elections if the country is to move
toward democracy.
Moller