POST-ELECTION UPDATE: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000078 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION UPDATE: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, ELECTIONS COMMISSIONER, AND MORE REF: A. COLOMBO 76 ¶B. COLOMBO 65 ¶C. COLOMBO 62 ¶D. COLOMBO 61 ¶E. COLOMBO 59 ¶F. COLOMBO 57 ¶G. COLOMBO 53 ¶H. COLOMBO 51 ¶I. COLOMBO 48 ¶J. COLOMBO 47 ¶K. COLOMBO 46 ¶L. COLOMBO 45 COLOMBO 00000078 001.2 OF 002 ¶M. COLOMBO 40 ¶N. COLOMBO 36 ¶O. COLOMBO 27 ¶P. COLOMBO 21 ¶Q. COLOMBO 11 ¶R. COLOMBO 7 ¶S. COLOMBO 2 ¶T. 09 COLOMBO 1152 ¶U. 09 COLOMBO 1145 ¶V. 09 COLOMBO 1139 Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D) GENERAL ELECTION LIKELY IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL -------------- ¶1. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) After broaching the idea on January 28, President Rajapaksa's plan appears to be to dissolve Parliament on or about February 5, with a general election most likely towards the end of March or early April. Analysts suggest the president is hoping to capitalize on his victory over the opposition in the recent presidential election, and GSL allies have already begun predicting a big win for Rajapaksa, with Wimal Weerawansa of the frequently anti-American National Freedom Front (NFF) predicting the President's governing coalition would easily secure a two-thirds majority. The opposition appears to be regrouping after its election loss. One JVP contact told Post that the coalition's goal was to end the executive presidency, and that the parliamentary elections would still serve as a venue for them to accomplish that and maintain unity in the campaign. ELECTIONS COMMISSIONER DILEMMA -------------- ¶2. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Though the Elections Commissioner told PolOff on January 28 that he was retiring by February 1, whether the president accepted it or not (Ref. B),a rumor emerged over the weekend that he would lose his pension if the president did not accept the resignation and he nonetheless stopped coming to work. Post contacted his office on February 1 and learned he had come in to the office for work, presumably to begin preparations for the expected parliamentary elections. Although the EC had told PolOff that his retirement would bring about a constitutional crisis, other analysts said over the weekend that the Supreme Court could accept his retirement in lieu of the president, and then appoint his deputy as a replacement commissioner. This would apparently provide a legal way to sidestep the requirement that the 17th amendment be instituted first to allow the appointment of a new elections commissioner. CLAIMS OF VOTE RIGGING CONTINUE -------------- ¶3. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Various opposition COLOMBO 00000078 002.2 OF 002 figures provided more details on what it described as a massive vote-rigging operation by the government. Chief among the claims was a full-page interview in the Sunday Leader newspaper with Mangala Samaraweera, seen as the chief architect of Fonseka's campaign. Mangala claimed the government had pulled off a massive, high-tech fraud operation involving the intimidation of opposition vote-counting observers coupled with computer-based fraud at the district-secretariat level and at the EC's office. The newspaper said Mangala promised the opposition would have more details on this soon and that they would contest the results formally while simultaneously campaigning for the general election. ¶4. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Post received reports during the morning of January 27, while ballots were being counted, that the Elections Commissioner was being held by security forces. Post contacted his office by phone late in the morning, and was told by a deputy commissioner that the EC was at the office but was busy with the counting and unable to come to the phone. ¶5. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Over the weekend of January 30-31, the government ordered Swiss journalist Karin Wenger to leave the country, although after heavy criticism from the international community, the government reversed its decision and allowed Ms. Wenger to stay. It was widely suspected that the government was unhappy with her because she asked questions at a government news conference about the location and status of the EC on January 27. Wenger reportedly had asked Education Minister Susil Premajayantha why Basil Rajapaksa, the president's brother, had gone to see the EC shortly before the latter announced the results. Premajayantha became visibly upset and said Basil had been "sleeping" at that time. Opposition sympathizers claimed Basil in fact had gone to force the Commissioner into certifying the falsified results and that the Commissioner's bizarre speech at the results release was clear evidence he was under extreme coercion. Wenger reportedly said she saw Basil leave the EC office just after the results announcement. GOVERNMENT PRESSURES FONSEKA -------------- ¶6. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) The government continued its pressure on Fonseka, as it continued to press claims that he had been plotting to assassinate President Rajapaksa while staying (under heavy military and police cordon) at the Cinnamon Lakeside Hotel on January 27. The manager of that hotel was questioned by CID detectives about Fonseka's actions while there. Fonseka's campaign offices were raided ) and 17 clerical and security staff detained - by police on the afternoon of January 29, and it appeared likely that Fonseka himself would soon be arrested. (See ref. A for additional details on the government's position on Fonseka.) OPPOSITION PLANS PROTESTS -------------- ¶7. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) The UNP and JVP have called for their supporters to engage in "civil disobedience" beginning on February 3, in protest of what they see as the fraudulent presidential polling. It is unclear to what extent this call will be heeded or what the government's reaction will be. The government had banned all demonstrations for a seven-day period after the election, but that ban would appear to expire before this planned protest. BUTENIS