SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO.4

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000007 C O R R E C T E D COPY - ADDED PASSING INSTRUCTIONS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB RELEASABLE TO: UK, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, SWITZERLAND E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO.4 REF: A. 2009 COLOMBO 1152 ¶B. 2009 COLOMBO 1145 ¶C. 2009 COLOMBO 1139 COLOMBO 00000007 001.8 OF 002 Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D) TNA will support Fonseka -------------- ¶1. (C) As reported by Post in an O/I item on December 24, the TNA is expected to announce shortly that it will support Fonseka in the presidential election, with widespread local media coverage already discussing the move. TNA leader Sampanthan is scheduled to meet with Ambassador Wednesday or Thursday to outline the details of a so-called "Fonseka Programme," which is said to entail a three-page plan of how Fonseka intends to deal with the former war zone in the North. He reportedly also pledged to end the state of emergency, release within a month of taking office any Tamil detainees not formally charged with crimes, and dismantle the high security zones scattered throughout the country -- the latter a particularly acute point of contention among some Tamil landowners and more pressing now that many recently released IDPs hope to return to their original property. Post heard complaints from at least one TNA Member of Parliament (MP) that this decision had been made by Sampanthan and one or two other top party leaders without adequately consulting other MPs in the party. It would surprise Post to see an open rebellion by any significant number of TNA MPs against this decision, but the TNA leadership may have to work very hard in the next three weeks to convince voters in the North that voting at all will bring any appreciable change to their day-to-day lives. Fonseka in Jaffna -------------- ¶2. (C) General Fonseka made a campaign visit to Jaffna on Saturday, January 2, along with a number of his UNF coalition members including Ranil Wickremesinghe of the UNP, Mano Ganesan of the Western People's Front, and Samaraweera Amarasinghe, leader of the JVP. While there, he officially opened a campaign office, held a press conference, and met with the local Catholic bishop, Hindu leaders, and Jaffna University officials. He promised to transform the local Palaly Airport into an international airport and said he would provide details about all LTTE ex-combatants currently held in detention. Fonseka also participated in a meeting organized by Ganesan, with the family members of a number of disappeared individuals. TMVP Still In Play? -------------- ¶3. (C) Reports diverged on whether the TMVP -- until now a pro-government Tamil group -- might throw its support solidly behind one candidate or another. After a number of mixed signals from TMVP leader Pillayan and his deputies, media reported on January 4 that the UNP had appointed a special emissary to try to convince the TMVP to back Fonseka. That was followed up on January 5 by UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayaka claiming that several top TMVP figures were prepared to switch their support to Fonseka but had been threatened by the government. The rumor mill in Colombo was claiming that Pillayan had received a payment of USD 200,000 to 300,000 from the government to ensure he and his party supported Rajapaksa. Crossovers to Opposition -------------- COLOMBO 00000007 002.10 OF 002 ¶4. (C) Two top members of the ethnic Tamil Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC),National Organizer Ramaiyan Yogarajan and Deputy Minister of Education Murugan Satchithanandan, announced on December 30 that they would leave the government and support Fonseka. An additional two deputy ministers from the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress also were reportedly planning to switch and support Fonseka. While leader of the SLMC Rauff Hakeem is already a Fonseka supporter, these two SLMC members had previously been with the government. Death of UPF's Chandrasekaran -------------- ¶5. (C) Further adding to the drama surrounding the various ethnic Tamil parties, Mr. P. Chandrasekaran, leader of the Up-Country People's Front (UPF),died of a heart attack at age 52 on January 1. The UPF had a history of pragmatically supporting whichever side was in power and had made a statement prior to the campaign that it would support Rajapaksa in the campaign but would support Fonseka afterwards if he won. While Chandrasekaran's wife was appointed as the party leader upon his death, it was likely that deputy head P. Radakrishnan would be making any major decisions, though few expected him to change sides and support Fonseka at this point. The Colombo rumor mill was also running on this story, saying that prior to his death Chandrasekaran had offered to support Fonseka if he were given USD 1 million, but was turned down. Violence Between Rajapaksa and Fonseka Supporters -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Violence broke out between supporters of the two main candidates on January 3 when supporters of Fonseka were distributing leaflets in Kiribathgoda. An unknown number of persons were injured by rocks. Media reports on January 5 reported the unusual move by President Rapajaksa of openly reprimanding Minister of Labor Mervyn Silva, an SLFP organizer, for his supposed role in the violence. Elections Commissioner Takes Firm Action -- At Least Once -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The Inspector General of Police ordered the transfer of a police superintendent in Ampara who had complied with Elections Commissioner Dissanayake's directive to remove illegal campaign signs. EC Dissanayake ordered on January 1 that the transfer be canceled, however, and reiterated his directive that transfers of public servants were not allowed during the election campaign. Police Ordered to Support Rajapaksa? -------------- ¶8. (C) Newspapers on January 3 reported that a flyer was being distributed among police officers, which requested that they "dedicate themselves to the victory of President Rajapaksa," and which appeared to bear the official seal of the Special Task Force (STF) and the signatures of STF Commandant Sarathchandra and STF Senior Superintendent Ananda Gunatilleke. STF officials, including Gunatilleke, denied any responsibility and suggested the flyer was faked. BUTENIS