SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO. 13 - POLLS CLOSED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000061 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO. 13 - POLLS CLOSED REF: A. COLOMBO 59 ¶B. COLOMBO 57 ¶C. COLOMBO 53 ¶D. COLOMBO 51 ¶E. COLOMBO 48 ¶F. COLOMBO 47 ¶G. COLOMBO 46 ¶H. COLOMBO 45 ¶I. COLOMBO 40 ¶J. COLOMBO 36 ¶K. COLOMBO 27 ¶L. COLOMBO 21 COLOMBO 00000061 001.2 OF 003 ¶M. COLOMBO 11 ¶N. COLOMBO 7 ¶O. COLOMBO 2 ¶P. 09 COLOMBO 1152 ¶Q. 09 COLOMBO 1145 ¶R. 09 COLOMBO 1139 Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D) OVERALL TURNOUT HIGH, JAFFNA FIGURES LOW -------------- ¶1. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) After the close of polls at 4:00 PM local, elections monitoring group PAFFREL reported an estimated turnout of 74 percent for all of Sri Lanka except Jaffna, where it reported 18-20 percent turnout. Figures on turnout for Jaffna are difficult to interpret, as voter rolls there have not been updated recently. We believe the old total number of registered voters was approximately 720,000, but the number of registered voters living in Jaffna now is reportedly about half that figure. Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe noted to us that, when calculated on the basis of the actual number of registered voters in Jaffna, the turnout figures there were relatively high. LOW VIOLENCE -------------- ¶2. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Reports of election-related violence continued to be quite low, and there were no reported deaths. A total of 82 incidents of elections violations were reported as of the closing of polls at 4:00 PM local time, including 38 incidents of assault and 12 incidents of damage to property. While regrettable nonetheless, Post had been concerned there might be more violence (than reported) as part of a campaign to reduce voter turnout. BOTH SIDES CONFIDENT -------------- ¶3. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) G.L. Peiris, Minister of Export Development and International Trade, and a member of the president's close circle, called Ambassador around 11:30 AM on election day and said he and the campaign were confident of victory by a substantial margin. He would not give specifics on what that margin might be. Later, we spoke to opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, who also expressed optimism. Wickremesinghe said the good voter turnout made them confident, and he said much would depend on returns from the north and east. But Wickremesinghe thought that even in the south -- a Rajapaksa stronghold -- Fonseka would at least break even with the president or, perhaps, gain a slim majority. NO BUSES FOR VAVUNIYA IDPS -------------- COLOMBO 00000061 002.2 OF 003 ¶4. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) A group of approximately 11,000 IDPs from Manik Farm waited in vain for buses to take them to polling stations in Kilinochchi. Reports were that some 30 buses had been requested by the government, but only two appeared on election day. TNA leader Sampanthan was reportedly planning to ask the Elections Commissioner to delay announcement of the elections results until the IDPs had been able to vote, but it was unclear whether he had submitted a formal request or whether there was a mechanism to handle this sort of eventuality. PAFFREL reported just after 5:00 PM local time that some 3,000 of the IDPs were taken in the afternoon, but very few were able to actually vote before the 4:00 PM closing of polls. FONSEKA INABILITY TO VOTE STIRS BROUHAHA -------------- ¶5. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Pro-Rajapaksa media had a field day with reports that Fonseka was unable to vote, with some commentators suggesting this was because he was an American citizen. (NOTE: Fonseka is a Legal Permanent Resident of the U.S., not a citizen. END NOTE.) Later in the day, Fonseka appeared on television explaining that he was unable to vote because his registration had expired and he had forgotten to renew it. (NOTE: Voting registers in Sri Lanka are updated by officials more or less yearly. When the lists were updated in 2009, Fonseka was in the combat zone commanding the army and not at his home, and thus his name was stricken from the voter list. END NOTE.) Finally, the Election Commissioner issued a statement saying that failure to appear on a voter list or to cast a ballot in an election did not disqualify someone from being elected and serving as president. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? -------------- ¶6. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Polls closed at 4:00 PM local time. Transportation of the ballot boxes will take place between then and approximately 7:00 PM local time. Then doors to the counting centers will be locked and the counting will begin. Postal (absentee) votes will be counted first, with results from that segment expected anywhere between 10:00 PM local time this evening (11:30 AM EST, January 26) and 2:00 AM local time tomorrow morning, January 27 (3:30 PM EST, January 26). Then regular ballots will be counted for each of the 225 electorates, beginning with some of the more rural and distant areas. Results of some of these electorates will begin trickling out into media reports throughout the early morning, but the electorates with the highest populations often are counted last, leaving the final result unclear until the totals are announced, expected to be around mid-day on January 27 (early morning on January 27 in Washington, DC). POST HOSTS OTHER MISSIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Post hosted representatives from other foreign missions throughout the day, including the Swiss, Dutch and German Ambassadors. Post organized a command center, including phone banks, televisions tuned to local and international news, text-message capability and Opennet connections. Post elections reporting teams both in the larger Colombo area and in the areas around Kandy, Galle, and Nuwara Eliya reported regularly to our command center throughout the day, and those staffing the room reached out frequently to local elections monitoring groups and regionally-based Post contacts. COLOMBO 00000061 003.2 OF 003 ALL POST TEAMS SAFE -------------- ¶8. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) All Post reporting teams in the Colombo area have returned safely to the Chancery, and those teams in other towns are safely at their hotels to wait out the elections results and possible curfew. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Election-day voting went off more smoothly than we expected. While there were reports of some violent incidents -- isolated explosions in the north and east and some assaults and fisticuffs at a few polling stations -- the overall pattern was relatively peaceful. We must caution that this could change if there were reports of malfeasance in the transport of ballot boxes to counting centers later this evening or perceptions of fraud at the announcement of official results, expected Wednesday. January 27 has already been declared a national holiday, and there is a good chance the government will impose a curfew later this evening lasting through Wednesday. ¶10. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Turnout, too, was good and a credit to Sri Lankans able to vote nationwide for the first time in decades following the defeat of the LTTE and the reunification of the nation. It is unclear to us whether the government's failure to provide bus transportation for 11,000 IDPs at Manik Farm to polling stations in time to vote was deliberate or a system breakdown. The number of votes -- even if all cast for a single candidate -- would not have impacted the final tallies. But ensuring IDP voting would have been a good way to signal national reconciliation -- a point the Ambassador pressed with Minister Peiris earlier today. BUTENIS