SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO. 11

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000056

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO. 11

REF: A. COLOMBO 53

B. COLOMBO 51

C. COLOMBO 48

D. COLOMBO 47

E. COLOMBO 46

F. COLOMBO 45

G. COLOMBO 40

H. COLOMBO 36

I. COLOMBO 27

J. COLOMBO 21

K. COLOMBO 11

L. COLOMBO 7

COLOMBO 00000056 001.2 OF 002


M. COLOMBO 2

N. 09 COLOMBO 1152

O. 09 COLOMBO 1145

P. 09 COLOMBO 1139

Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D)

THE Y2K ELECTION:
PEACEFUL OR TUMULTUOUS?
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1. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) On the eve of an
historic presidential election in Sri Lanka, the leading
candidates appear to be neck-and-neck, with no one able to
predict how events will unfold. Scenarios -- often offered
by the same observer -- range from a peaceful handover of
power to large-scale social unrest and violence. The
government has declared Wednesday, January 27 a legal
holiday, and many Sri Lankans anticipate a curfew will be
imposed as well. The Embassy will close at 16:00 local time
on January 26 and remain closed January 27, except for
elections-essential personnel.


2. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) There is a potential
for some post-election violence, and tensions in some
locations appear to be very high. Violence is more likely to
be between Sinhalese supporters of the two main candidates,
rather than to involve Tamil voters. Additional scattered
reports of violence continued to come in over the weekend
from a number of different locations. How each side reacts
to a close vote, and in particular a close vote where there
are widespread allegations of fraud, is difficult to predict.
One long-time JVP member of parliament told PolOff his JVP
supporters would not be robbed of what they saw as certain
victory and that they would be in the streets protesting if
the win was stolen from them. Many opposition organizers and
supporters in the southern Hambantota district admitted to
PolOff they were nervous about what might happen to them if
Rajapaksa prevailed. Other observers told us that Rajapaksa
organizers and officials could see there was a very real
chance he could lose and were fearful of retaliation by
Fonseka supporters if that happened. See ref. B for Post
reporting on how the security forces might handle significant
post-election violence.

CHANDRIKA ENDORSES FONSEKA
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3. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) The last endorsement of
a candidate occurred on the morning of January 24, when
General Fonseka was received by former president Chandrika
Bandaranaike Kumaratunga at the memorial to her late father,
SLFP founder S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike. While it is unknown how
much this last-minute endorsement will sway any remaining
undecided SLFP voters, symbolically it is a stinging rebuke
of President Rajapaksa by the veritable grandmother of the
party he now purports to lead.

RUMORS OF FRAUD ATTEMPTS ABOUND

COLOMBO 00000056 002.2 OF 002


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4. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Unverifiable rumors of
various fraud attempts swirled around Colombo and the
text-messaging social network of Sri Lanka over the final
pre-election weekend. There were reports that a military
truck had been stopped in the town of Karunagala
inappropriately carrying some 90 ballot boxes. Elections
monitors reported to PolOff that they knew of some 25 stuffed
ballot boxes being held at a secret location near the
southern town of Tangalle. Unclaimed voter registration
cards at post offices in areas in the north led to suspicions
by some that these would be used to cast fraudulent ballots.
Because voter lists have not been updated for many years in
some of these locations, voter cards have been prepared for
Tamil voters who may have died or left the country years ago.
A majority of observers seem to believe that a key
vulnerability exists in the transportation of ballot boxes
from polling stations to counting centers.

"PREFERENCE" VOTING -- WHAT'S THE DEAL?
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5. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) The Sri Lankan
constitution requires a presidential candidate to receive at
least 50 percent plus one vote to be declared the winner
outright. If neither Rajapaksa nor Fonseka makes it over
this hurdle, election officials will consider "preference"
votes (voters manually cast their votes for first, second,
and third choices on the paper ballots). Candidates who were
not in first or second place are eliminated from the contest
and the ballots of those who voted for them are consulted to
determine their second preferences. If the second preference
on a ballot is for either of the two top candidates, the vote
is added to that candidate's total. If a voter's first and
second preferences had been for neither of the top two
candidates but his or her third preference was, that
third-preference vote is added to the candidate's total.
Whoever receives a majority of the votes so counted is
declared the victor. In case of a tie, lots are drawn to
determine the winner.


6. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Sri Lanka has never had
to utilize this preference system in its presidential
elections -- someone always won at least 50 percent plus one.
The system has been utilized, however, in provincial-council
elections. In those elections, election officials -- who
presumably were up all night counting the first choices on
ballots -- were given at least a twelve-hour rest before the
counting of the preferences began. We are unclear at this
point whether such a rest period -- which would significantly
delay the tabulation of results, leaving the country on the
edge of its collective seat -- will be provided.
BUTENIS