SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO. 9

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000040 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO. 9 REF: A. COLOMBO 36 ¶B. COLOMBO 27 ¶C. COLOMBO 21 ¶D. COLOMBO 11 ¶E. COLOMBO 7 ¶F. COLOMBO 2 ¶G. 09 COLOMBO 1152 ¶H. 09 COLOMBO 1145 ¶I. 09 COLOMBO 1139 COLOMBO 00000040 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D) CONTINUING VIOLENCE -------------- ¶1. (C)(Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Two persons were reported shot and seriously injured the night of January 18 while returning home from a Fonseka campaign rally in a small town near Hambantota. Numerous Post contacts have expressed concern about increasing violence in the remaining days before the election, as well in the day or days following the election, depending on the outcome. Conjecture ranges from isolated acts of retribution to widespread unrest in the streets if the opposition -- particularly the violence-prone JVP -- believed the government stole the election or, alternatively, Fonseka won outright and pro-government forces went on an angry rampage. MEDIA COMPETENT AUTHORITY RECALLED -------------- ¶2. (C)(Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) The Elections Commissioner has recalled the Competent Authority over the state media, saying that all his orders had been ignored. Opposition representatives pointed to this as evidence that the election would not be free and fair. ELECTIONS COMMISSIONER SAYS HE WILL RESIGN AFTER THIS ELECTION -------------- ¶3. (C)(Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) The clearly embattled Elections Commissioner announced he would resign his position after the presidential elections. He told us he had had five heart attacks and attempted to resign several times, but President Rajapaksa insisted he stay on because those in line to succeed him were not Rajapaksa loyalists. This time, however, the Commissioner sounds determined to quit the job. With parliamentary elections due later this spring, his replacement could prove to be a key position in that vote. SPECIAL POLICE TO MONITOR BALLOT COUNTING? -------------- ¶4. (C)(Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) CAFFE, one of the local elections monitoring groups, told post it had received word that teams of "special police officers" would be deployed to monitor ballot counting centers. CAFFE gave the Embassy a copy of a letter it sent to the Elections Commissioner complaining of this alleged plan, stating that the regular police deployments would be sufficient. Other contacts told Post they worried that persons would switch ballot boxes while they were being transported to counting centers, saying this had occurred in past provincial council elections, in particular with boxes transported by boat or helicopter. GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES WAGE HIKE -------------- ¶5. (C)(Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) The Ministry of Labor Relations and Manpower announced that all wage boards in the COLOMBO 00000040 002.2 OF 002 private sector were ordered to grant a salary increase of USD 23 per month to all their employees, to match an earlier announcement of a similar raise for all public sector employees. EXPECTATIONS OF POST-ELECTION CURFEW -------------- ¶6. (C)(Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Many local observers expected the government would impose a curfew after the election. The most likely scenario would be a curfew imposed the evening of the election after the polls close. It would likely last well into, or through, the next day and possibly into the following day, January 28. Post is making contingency plans to ensure adequate staffing for security and essential reporting purposes. We will send a warden message this week alerting the American community to take proper precautions. BUTENIS