CHINA-ASEAN FTA START-UP: IMPACT ON YUNNAN PROVINCE MODEST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 CHENGDU 000044 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP DASES DAVID SHEAR, SCOT MARCIEL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ECIN ETRD EINV ELTN CH VM LA BM TH SUBJECT: CHINA-ASEAN FTA START-UP: IMPACT ON YUNNAN PROVINCE MODEST NOW BUT BIG LATER REF: A) 07 CHENGDU 124, B) 09 CHENGDU 069, C) 09 CHIANG MAI 057, D) 09 VIENTIANE 088 CHENGDU 00000044 001.2 OF 005 ¶1. (U) This cable contains sensitive but unclassified information - not for distribution on the Internet. ¶2. (SBU) Summary: Although Yunnan's overall foreign trade numbers declined by about 16 percent in 2009 because of the global financial crisis, its trade with the 10 member-nations of ASEAN managed to grow by nearly 14 percent over 2008 -- in part due to improved road infrastructure linking Yunnan to Vietnam, and to Thailand via Laos. Yunnan's trade with ASEAN has seen a consistent annual double digit increase since 2003, with the exception of 2008, which saw a seven percent contraction. While Burma has been the province's biggest trading partner, Yunnan-Burma trade increased by only 3 percent in 2009, with Yunnan-Vietnam trade growth of 22.4 percent. ¶3. (SBU) Yunnan officials downplayed, in the short term, the importance of the January 1, 2010 launch of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) because much of Yunnan's trade is with Burma, Vietnam, and Laos, which will not become fully liberalized under CAFTA until 2015. At the same time, they expressed confidence in CAFTA's long-term potential, and stressed further improvements in infrastructure -- particularly by China's southern neighbors -- as key to allowing Yunnan to develop as a transportation and logistics hub between southeast Asia and the rest of the PRC. The limits of the physical infrastructure are further compounded by only limited implementation of an existing cross-border transportation agreement; at present, for example, most Chinese trucks must offload onto Vietnamese trucks in Hekou, and Chinese trucks are banned altogether in Thailand, necessitating offload-onload onto a Thai truck. End Summary. ¶4. (SBU) Consul General and PolEconoffs made a week-long road trip January 17-23 to Yunnan's provincial capital, Kunming, and to Hekou and Mohan, the main ports for Yunnan's trade with Vietnam and Laos respectively. Our interlocutors in Kunming included the Yunnan Departments of Commerce and Transportation, the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences (YASS). Septel reports on border trade at Hekou and Mohan. Yunnan-ASEAN Trade and Investment Growing Steadily �00A; -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although Yunnan's overall foreign trade numbers declined by about 16 percent in 2009 because of the global financial crisis, its trade with ASEAN countries managed to grow by nearly 14 percent over 2008, a Department of Commerce official told CG. This growth in Yunnan-ASEAN trade also went against the tide of overall China-ASEAN trade, which was down by two percent in 2009. In fact, Yunnan's trade with ASEAN has seen a consistent annual double digit growth since 2003, with the exception of 2008, which saw a seven percent contraction. While both Commerce and YASS identified Burma as the province's biggest trading partner, Vietnam may be catching up. Yunnan-Vietnam trade grew by 22.4 percent in 2009, higher than overall Yunnan-ASEAN trade, and far higher than Yunnan-Burma trade, which increased by only 3 percent. ¶6. (U) According to official statistics for 2009, the total value of Yunnan-ASEAN trade stood at about USD 3.15 billion, 39.3 percent of the province's total international trade. Exports from Yunnan to ASEAN were USD 2.1 billion; imports were USD 1.05 billion. Yunnan ran trade deficits only with Indonesia and Laos. Yunnan's top exports to ASEAN were agricultural products, phosphorus chemicals, and electrical machinery; its top imports from ASEAN were minerals, electrical machinery and agricultural products. Additional details on Yunnan-ASEAN trade are in appendix. Yunnan- ASEAN Investment Ties: A Two-Way Street -------------- -- ¶7. (U) Yunnan-ASEAN investment relations have also risen steadily, if modestly, according to Department of Commerce officials. Several hundred companies in Yunnan are currently authorized to invest internationally, and an increasing number of companies are seeking to expand their international business operations because they face domestic overcapacity. ¶8. (U) Most such investments are going to Laos, Burma, and Vietnam in the fields of mining (chiefly iron, lead and zinc), hydropower (i.e. dam building) and agriculture (produce and wood products). According to Department of Commerce statistics, the total contracted Yunnan outward investment as of the end of 2009 to the three countries was USD 419 million -- of which 230 million went to Laos, 180 million to Burma, and only 9 million to Vietnam. About half of these investments were made by CHENGDU 00000044 002.2 OF 005 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under the central government; the rest were by provincial SOEs or private companies. ¶9. (SBU) By contrast, ASEAN investment in Yunnan stood at USD 348 million as of the end of 2009, with nearly half of that (USD 160 million) being from Singapore. Department of Commerce officials expressed hope that Singaporean investments could help develop the province's service and logistics capacities. Thailand, with USD 70 million invested in the province, is the second largest source; Burma is third with USD 40 million invested. That Said, Yunnan Still Accounts For Less Than 2 Percent of China-ASEAN Trade -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Despite growing links, Yunnan Province's trade with ASEAN countries remains a small proportion of China's overall trade with the region. As a YASS researcher pointed out, although trade with ASEAN is significant for the province, it still accounts for less than two percent of all trade between China and ASEAN. A Department of Commerce official confided that he expected that Yunnan's relative importance in China-ASEAN trade would not increase significantly in the near future. Instead, he predicted faster growth in overall China-ASEAN trade volumes as CAFTA comes on line. ¶11. (SBU) Despite its geographic position, the potential for Yunnan to benefit from expanded trade under CAFTA remains limited in the near term for several reasons, noted both YASS and Department of Commerce officials. The three nations with which Yunnan shares a border -- Myanmar, Vietnam and Laos -- are all new ASEAN members and thus will not be required to implement CAFTA's tariff-free rules until 2015. Trade in most agricultural products -- primarily with Thailand and Vietnam -- has already been tariff-free since 2004. This leaves only a small proportion of trade between Yunnan and ASEAN that is seeing an elimination of tariffs as a result of CAFTA going into effect. Moreover, emphasized the Department of Commerce, expanding Yunnan's proportion of overall China-ASEAN trade will be difficult in the face of long-established commercial relationships structured around trade via the eastern ocean ports that bypass Yunnan altogether. ¶12. (SBU) Comment: One notable exception in terms of transit trade may be Vietnam, because of the growing importance for Yunnan of the port of Haiphong. Some Yunnan trade is already brought in through Haiphong; our interlocutors indicated that third-country trade to Yunnan (and perhaps other provinces in southwestern China such as Sichuan) via Vietnam may increase significantly in the future due to improvements in rail and road infrastructure between Hekou and Haiphong. It is likely that some U.S. beef, for example, which is technically banned for sale in China, is already being imported illegally into China via this route. End Comment. Transportation Infrastructure Challenges -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Yunnan officials nonetheless emphasized the long-term potential of CAFTA. While provincial officials have long identified development of transport links as the key to ending the province's relative isolation and stimulating economic growth, the province has faced considerable challenges on this front. Officials at both the Transportation Department and YASS noted the province's mountainous terrain considerably increases the cost of road construction and has thus slowed development. For example, the new highways to Southeast Asia required the building of a large number of tunnels and bridges. (Note: During many days of travel to border points with Vietnam and Laos, we noted dozens of fairly long tunnels, a large number of raised highways -- in part to reduce negative impacts on the environment -- and several elaborate bridges. End Note.) Dramatic Progress on Major Roads Projects -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Despite the cost and engineering challenges, progress on highways linking the provincial capital of Kunming to its main border ports and onto Southeast Asian capitals has been dramatic over the last few years. According to the Transportation Department, virtually all of the Kunming-Bangkok Highway within Yunnan -- 668 kilometers from Kunming to Mohan -- is now high-grade expressway; the 400-kilometer stretch from Kunming to Hekou of the Kunming-Hanoi-Haiphong Highway is also now mostly high-grade expressway; and, of the nine highways connecting Yunnan to Burma, three now have significant portions CHENGDU 00000044 003.2 OF 005 within Yunnan that are expressways. ¶15. (SBU) During the last extended Consulate travel along these same roads in early 2007 (Ref A),the Chinese portions of the Kunming-Hanoi-Haiphong and Kunming-Bangkok highways were still under construction. At that time, travel between Kunming and Hekou on the border with Vietnam took 12 hours, mostly on mountainous secondary roads. In contrast, the same drive in January 2010 took approximately six hours, mostly on expressway. Likewise, in 2007 travel between Yuanjiang and Mohan involved a ten-hour "bone-jarring ride over badly decayed secondary roads." The more recent trip, on this now completed stretch of the Kunming-Bangkok Highway, took about four hours. Improved River Ports; Plans for More Rail Connections -------------- -------------- ¶16. (SBU) While roads have clearly been given top priority, officials also noted emphasis on other trade and transportation infrastructure development. Large new port facilities have been built at Hekou and Mohan (discussed septel). A YASS official also noted plans to increase the capacity of Mekong River transport from the current 300 ton per ship limit to 500 tons. ¶17. (SBU) Construction of a new railroad linking Kunming and Hanoi is well underway and was in evidence all along our route from Kunming to the border town of Hekou. (Yunnan's first rail line, a French-built narrow gauge line to Hanoi and Haiphong, remains operational, but only for freight.) YASS officials also confirmed that a line linking Dali and Bashan within Yunnan will commence soon, with the possibility of later extending into Burma. ¶18. (SBU) However, discussions of linking Kunming with Singapore by connecting various national rail networks remain largely "theoretical," according to officials at the Department of Commerce, while YASS officials assessed its completion as unlikely within the next 7-8 years. Plans to link Yunnan with its neighboring provinces within China via high speed rail are likely to come on line much sooner, according to YASS. Yunnan Officials: Biggest Trade Obstacles Still Lie Across the Border -------------- -------------- ¶19. (SBU) Fast-paced infrastructure development in Yunnan is not always matched across the border, officials said. Once it crosses into Laos (at Mohan) the Kunming-Bangkok Highway (Route R3A) is all second-grade road, Transportation Department officials noted. (Refs C and D describe extensive problems along the Lao portion of R3A, including stretches observed to be collapsing within the last year.) ¶20. (SBU) Transportation Department officials also emphasized the physical bottleneck at the Lao-Thai border where the road meets the Mekong and vehicles must currently cross via ferry. They reported that construction of the new bridge meant to link the two sections of the R3A -- a joint Chinese-Thai project -- is to start within this month and will be completed in 2012. (Note: This is one year later than the initial planned completion date for this project. Some press reports on the bridge have identified it as the key obstacle to expanding trade along this route, and note a long history of delays in getting the project off the ground. See for example: http://tinyurl.com/R3Abridge. Yunnan transportation officials, however, did not discuss these delays or express any skepticism regarding the new timeframe. End Note.) Poor Coordination Among Transportation Officials; Need Implementation of Cross-Border Transport Agreement -------------- -------------- ¶21. (SBU) The limits of the physical infrastructure are further compounded by continued poor coordination of transportation regimes in the region, noted Commerce officials. For example, a large cargo truck travelling from China toward Thailand hits multiple checkpoints along the road in Laos, adding both time and expense to the trip. Once it arrives at the Thai border, the goods on the truck must be transferred to a new truck to drive into Thailand, as Chinese trucks remain barred from entry. At the Vietnamese border, only trucks bearing plates from the Chinese border town of Hekou can cross, necessitating reloading of most trucks on the Chinese side of the border. Cargo trucks face similar obstacles to uninhibited and efficient transport in various forms throughout the region. ¶22. (SBU) Officials at both the Commerce and Transportation CHENGDU 00000044 004.2 OF 005 Departments cited the importance of the GMS Cross-Border Transport Agreement (CBTA) for facilitating smoother transport processes within CAFTA. However, they noted that the CBTA, despite being agreed to by all GMS governments, is not yet being fully implemented, blaming foot dragging on the part of some signatories. (A Transportation Department official described the Government of Thailand as the largest obstacle, but also mentioned Burma.) ¶23. (SBU) Overall, officials assessed the successful integration of the various transport and border regimes to be a ways off. There have been "many promises and deadlines, but they can't be put into practice." (Note: The CBTA was initiated in 1996 as part of the Asian Development Bank's technical assistance to the six countries of the GMS in order to identify and address non-physical and non-tariff barriers to cross border cargo transport along key routes. All six countries have signed and ratified the agreement. See adb.org/GMS/Cross-Border/default.asp for additional information. End note.) Comment: Further Substantial Integration Coming, But Will Taken Take, Need Unified Transportation Regimes -------------- -------------- ¶24. (SBU) Comment: Although providing the necessary foundation, neither the official launching of CAFTA on January 1, nor rapid road and rail development, will necessarily produce a quick, substantial upsurge in Yunnan's trade with its southern neighbors. It will take time to redirect long-established trade patterns, and to overcome bureaucratic hurdles to unified, cross-border transportation regimes. Nonetheless, the trade and investment relations of Yunnan are already undergoing profound changes that will continue to reshape landscapes and livelihoods, and bring an increased level of economic integration between China and its much poorer southern neighbors. APPENDIX: Official Yunnan-ASEAN trade statistics for 2009, compiled from information published by the Yunnan Department of Commerce and China-ASEAN Expo (see http://tinyurl.com/YunnanDOC and http://www.caexpo.org). Amounts are in US Dollars. ¶I. Yunnan's ASEAN Trade Partners: COUNTRY: BURMA Trade Value/% of Total Trade: 1.2 billion / 15.3% Trade Balance: 323 million surplus Trade Growth Rate: 3% Main exports to: chemicals, machinery, household appliances, and building materials Main imports from: rubber, minerals, jade, rice and wood products COUNTRY: VIETNAM Trade Value/% of Total Trade: 790 million / 9.9% Trade Growth Rate: 22.4% Trade Balance: 53 million surplus Main exports to: phosphorous, cigarettes, fertilizer, building materials, textiles, electric appliances Main imports from: minerals, agricultural products COUNTRY: INDONESIA Trade Value/% of Total Trade: 345 million / 4.3% Trade Growth Rate: 53.9% Trade Balance: 56 million deficit Main exports to: cigarettes, phosphorus, machinery, textiles Main imports from: nonferrous metals, fertilizer COUNTRY: THAILAND Trade Value/% of Total Trade: 236 million / 2.9% Trade Growth Rate: declined by 6.2% Trade Balance: 169 million surplus Main exports to: agricultural products Main imports from: agricultural products, aquatic/sea products COUNTRY: MALAYSIA Trade Value/% of Total Trade: 221 million / 2.8% Trade Growth Rate: 92.2% Trade Balance: 9.5 million surplus Main exports to: cigarettes, metals, chemical raw materials Main imports from: palm oil, forestry products COUNTRY: LAOS Trade Value/% of Total Trade: 155 million / 1.9% Trade Growth Rate: 40.5% Trade Balance: 6.3 million deficit CHENGDU 00000044 005.2 OF 005 Main exports to: machinery, textiles, chemicals Main imports from: agricultural products, wood COUNTRY: SINGAPORE Trade Value/% of Total Trade: 115 million / 1.4% Trade Growth Rate: declined by 31.4% Trade Balance: 44 million surplus Main exports to: cigarettes, lead, aluminum Main imports from: chemical products, electrical machinery, precision instruments, telecommunication equipment COUNTRY: PHILIPPINES Trade Value/% of Total Trade: 59 million / 0.7% Trade Growth Rate: 27% Trade Balance: 28 million surplus COUNTRY: CAMBODIA Trade Value: 3.7 million Trade Growth Rate: declined by 78.2% Trade Balance: 2 million surplus COUNTRY: BRUNEI Trade Value: 0.25 million Trade Growth Rate: 97.6% Trade Balance: 0.25 million surplus II. Yunnan's Main Exports to ASEAN: Category: Agricultural products Trade Value/% of Total: 883 million / 23.6% YOY Growth Rate: 25.5% Category: Phosphorus chemicals Trade Value/% of Total: 720 million / 19.2% YOY Growth Rate: declined by 52.6% Category: Electrical machinery Trade Value/% of Total: 703 million / 18.8% YOY Growth Rate: declined by 20.5% Category: Cigarettes Trade Value/% of Total: 280 million / 7.5% YOY Growth Rate: 31.9% Category: Nonferrous metals Trade Value/% of Total: 281 million / 7.5% YOY Growth Rate: declined by 28.9% Category: Textiles Trade Value/% of Total: 243 million / 6.5% YOY Growth Rate: 40.3% Category: Electric Power Trade Value/% of Total: 186 million / 5% YOY Growth Rate: 34% Category: Other Trade Value/% of Total: 734 million / 19.6% YOY Growth Rate: declined by 9.6% III. Yunnan's Main Imports from ASEAN: Category: Minerals Trade Value/% of Total: 1.3 billion / 42.6% YOY Growth Rate: declined by 35.8% Category: Electric Machinery Trade Value/% of Total: 701 million / 23.4% YOY Growth Rate: 17.4% Category: Agricultural Products Trade Value/% of Total: 339 million / 11.3% YOY Growth Rate: 34.4% Category: Wood Trade Value/% of Total: 151 million / 5.1% YOY Growth Rate: 0.4% Category: Non-metallic Raw Materials Trade Value/% of Total: 131 million / 4.4% YOY Growth Rate: declined by 87.5 Category: Other Trade Value/% of Total: 396 million / 13.2% YOY Growth Rate: 8.6% BROWN