Venezuela: Cuban Assistance to Confront Electricity Crisis

id: 247099 date: 2/3/2010 22:02 refid: 10CARACAS139 origin: Embassy Caracas classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: 09CARACAS1318|09CARACAS1367|10CARACAS35 header: VZCZCXRO5612 RR RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHHO RUEHNG RUEHRS DE RUEHCV #0139 0342202 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 032202Z FEB 10 ZFF3 FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0407 INFO OPEC COLLECTIVE WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000139 SIPDIS ENERGY FOR ALOCKWOOD AND LEINSTEIN, DOE/EIA FOR MCLINE HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD TREASURY FOR MKACZMAREK COMMERCE FOR 4332/MAC/WH/JLAO NSC FOR DRESTREPO AND LROSSELLO OPIC FOR BSIMONEN-MORENO AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO AMCONSUL QUEBEC AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PASS TO AMCONSUL RECIFE E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/03 TAGS: EPET EINV ENRG ECON VE SUBJECT: Venezuela: Cuban Assistance to Confront Electricity Crisis REF: CARACAS 35; 09 CARACAS 1367; 09 CARACAS 1318 CLASSIFIED BY: Darnall Steuart, Economic Counselor, DOS, Econ; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (SBU) The evening of February 2, President Chavez announced the arrival of Cuban Minister of Technology and President of the Cabinet of Ministers Ramiro Valdez in Venezuela [NOTE: According to USINT Havana, Valdez is the Cuban Minister of Communication. END NOTE]. He reportedly was sent to lead a technical commission to resolve Venezuela's electricity crisis (see reftels). The government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) previously has announced its intention to transition to a distributed electricity system modeled on Cuba's, i.e., a network of small generators distributed around the country. Venezuela plans to double its distributed generation capacity from 1,000 MW to 2,000 MW (NOTE: Venezuela's peak electricity demand to date in September 2009 surpassed 17,000 MW). This might alleviate some problems experienced in the rural areas of Venezuela, but would not impact large population centers, such as Caracas or Maracaibo. ¶2. (SBU) Venezuelan blogs are speculating that Valdez actually has a different mission in Venezuela, i.e., to use his technical expertise to assist the GBRV clamp down on dissident voices finding expression through the Internet and new media, such as Twitter. [NOTE: Daily statistics on Venezuela's electricity sector, including the daily decrease in the water levels in the Guri dam reservoir, are publicly available on the internet from the Venezuelan Interconnected Systems Operations Office (SEN by its Spanish acronym). END NOTE] ¶3. (C) The press also reported that the Government of Brazil announced that it would send a senior level technical assessment team to Venezuela this week to help develop a solution to Venezuela's impending electricity crisis. In contrast, EconOffs recently learned from a local businessman that a U.S. citizen engineer present in Venezuela to help repair the Guri hydroelectric turbines had shown his daughter a non-disclosure agreement that he had had to sign to keep his nationality and purpose in Venezuela a secret. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: A GBRV move to enlist Cuban assistance to affect a short-term solution to the impending electricity crisis in Venezuela is logical, especially given Electricity Minister and former Venezuelan Ambassador to CUBA Ali Rodriguez' continuing close relations with Havana. In reality, given the enormity of the electricity crisis, Venezuela likely needs all the help it can secure. Short of rainfall or massive electricity rationing, however, no local industry analyst believes Venezuela will avoid a collapse of Guri by early summer. Thus, the possibility raised in the blogosphere that the Cubans might not only be here to lend their electrical expertise but also their expertise in protecting potentially embarrassing government information, i.e., factual data on the deterioration of the electrical sector, represents a concern that the GBRV may take new measures to dampen social discontent by restricting access to public information. END COMMENT. DUDDY =======================CABLE ENDS============================