C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000067

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2020
TAGS: PREL SU EG
SUBJECT: ARAB LEAGUE PLANS FOR SUDAN

REF: A. 09 CAIRO 1705

B. 09 CAIRO 1616

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1.(C) Key Points: -- Zeid Al Sabban, African Affairs Advisor to Arab League (AL) SYG Amr Moussa said the AL wants to be part of a "unified" approach with the USG to address Sudan issues. -- The AL will hold an Arab Investment conference in Khartoum and Juba on February 23-24 to encourage investment in southern Sudan. It will also hold its February council meeting in Darfur to show all 22 permanent representatives the three villages and three medical centers built by the League. -- Al Sabban believes the division of opposition parties in Sudan will lead to a NCP victory in April elections and eventually the secession of the south because the SPLM only wants a united Sudan if there is "leadership change." -- The AL wants to be more involved in the Doha peace process. Al Sabban believes that the AL's experience in Abuja and its ability to serve as a point of common ground for all Arabs will allow it to provide value to the process. -------------- Support for a "Unified" Approach on Sudan --------------

2.(C) Arab League Advisor on African Affairs Zeid Al Sabban told us on January 4 that the Arab League (AL) supports developing a "unified" approach on Sudan, which would involve the U.S., Norway, regional countries, and regional organizations like the AL, African Union (AU) and the InterGovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Al Sabban stated that the AL was anxious to work with the USG because it "shares more common ground than ever before with the U.S., especially on the Sudan issue." -------------- Arab Investment Conference --------------

3.(C) Al Sabban said the AL plans to hold an Arab investment conference in Khartoum and Juba on February 23-24 to encourage investment in the private and public sectors in southern Sudan (reftel A). He said the conference will bring bankers and business leaders from across the Arab World to Juba. Al Sabban said the AL message is "Juba is a great place to invest," but he told Government of South Sudan (GoSS) officials that it was their responsibility to convince Arab investors southern Sudan is the best place for their money. He stated that the conference will need the support of both SPLM and NCP officials to succeed. Al Sabban said his chief concern is the "lack of transparency" in southern Sudan. He met with Russian and Chinese investors during a December trip to Juba. The investors told him that they had made "facilitation payments" to help initiate investment projects. However, GoSS officials denied knowledge of the investments, according to Al Sabban. -------------- Recent Agreements and The Future of Sudan --------------

4.(C) Al Sabban said the recent agreements between the SPLM and NCP on the southern referendum, Abyei referendum and public consultations were "good" because "everyone thinks they won." He believes the SPLM will now be a force for stability during the April 2010 elections because it "wants to preserve the referendum." Al Sabban said Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir will win the presidential election because the opposition groups are divided. He pointed to the Sudanese Popular Congress Party's nomination of Abdallah Dynaq Niyal as its presidential candidate as proof of the disintegration of the "Juba Alliance." He said this division would probably lead to the separation of Sudan because the SPLM only wants a united Sudan if there is "leadership change." -------------- AL Council to Meet in Darfur; See Assistance -------------- CAIRO 00000067 002 OF 002

5.(C) Al Sabban told us that the AL council plans to hold its February meeting in Darfur. He noted that this will be the first AL meeting ever held in Darfur. According to Al Sabban, the 22 permanent representatives will have an opportunity to witness the opening of three villages and three medical centers built by the League in Darfur and show the Darfuri population the AL's commitment to assisting in the recovery and development of the region (reftel B). -------------- Desire to Be More Involved in Doha Process --------------

6.(C) Al Sabban told us that the AL wants to be more involved in Doha peace process mediation efforts because it has a track record of success with the Darfuris. As an example, he cited AL and AU cooperation in helping facilitate the Abuja Agreement. He said the League would also represent the entire Arab World, even those countries like Egypt that do not feel represented by Qatar. Al Sabban stated Qatar has "played a perfect role" in the peace process, but the AL can add to its role through its experience and acting as a point of common ground. He expressed concern that the divide between UN/AU Mediator Bassole and Thabo Mbeki was problematic and he encouraged the USG to support Bassole, but persuade him to adopt some of Mbeki's recommendations. -------------- Assessment of Current Efforts --------------

7.(C) Al Sabban praised the efforts of the USG, France, Sudanese Presidential Advisor Ghazi Salaheddin and Chad FM Moussa Faki in helping to resolve the Sudan-Chad issues. He hoped these efforts would encourage JEM to join the peace process and accept the Abuja Accord, which he described as the "Zaghawa deal." Al Sabban said "Abdel Wahid Al Nur is not Nelson Mandela" and he believes the international community should stop "courting him." He encouraged the U.S. to engage with the "Fur elders" and create a group, not including Abdel Shafie, to represent the Fur in Doha where they can negotiate a deal with the Government of Sudan. According to AL Sabban, UNAMID was effective in engaging with civil society, but was mismanaging Darfur-Darfur dialogue efforts because it was not listening to the Darfuris. SCOBEY