INTRODUCTION TO JUNE 12 NATIONAL ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000064 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM LO SUBJECT: INTRODUCTION TO JUNE 12 NATIONAL ELECTIONS BRATISLAVA 00000064 001.3 OF 003 ¶1. (U) Summary. Parliamentary elections will be held in Slovakia on June 12. It is all but certain that Smer-Social Democracy, the party of current Prime Minister Robert Fico, will win the largest share of the votes. Recent opinion polls showed support for Smer around 40 percent, while no other party has surpassed 20 percent support in the last four years. Post-election coalition possibilities for Smer vary from more of the same to partnership with a center-right party. Because coalition forming will depend on post-election math, it is difficult to predict. Slovak politics is more a competition of personalities than ideas, however, and the leading parties are pragmatic, not ideological. In septels over the coming months, Post will describe the main parties, players and issues in greater detail. End summary. ¶2. (U) Elections are conducted on the basis of a universal, equal and direct electoral franchise, by means of secret ballot, and in accordance with the principle of proportional representation. Candidates for Parliamentary office must be citizens of the Slovak Republic, at least twenty-one years of age and eligible to vote on polling day, with permanent residence in the Slovak Republic. Judges, prosecutors, public defenders of rights, members of the Armed Forces, members of Armed Corps, or members of the European Parliament may not run for parliament. The territory of the Slovak Republic constitutes a single electoral constituency. The elections -------------- ¶3. (U) Elections are held over the course of one day. Citizens over the age of 18 may cast votes outside their city of residence with prior notice, or by post from outside Slovakia. Citizens choose from lists of candidates submitted by registered political parties. These lists, not to exceed 150 names each, are submitted to the Central Electoral Commission at least ninety days before polling day. ¶4. (U) In addition to a vote for a party, each voter can also pick up to four "preferential candidates" from the respective party list. Thus, any candidate with at least 3,000 preferential votes could move up the list (rank-ordered by preferential votes),even if the party had originally put him/her towards the bottom of the list. Allocation of seats -------------- ¶5. (U) The sum of valid votes cast on election day is divided by 151 (the number of Parliamentary seats plus one). The result of this division rounded off to a whole number is the party's republic electoral number. The sum of each party's votes is divided by the republic electoral number to determine the number of seats each party obtains. In the event the total seats thus calculated equals 151, the party with the lowest remainder loses a seat. If the total seats allocated equals 149, the party with the highest remainder gains a seat. Rules for the Campaign -------------- ¶6. (U) Officially, the campaign begins 21 days before polling day when broadcasting of (explicitly) political advertisements may begin. Slovak public television and Slovak Radio are obligated to set aside no more than ten hours of broadcasting time for political advertisements, which shall be allocated to competing parties with no single party receiving more than thirty minutes. A further ten hours of broadcasting time is to be set aside by the public media for discussion programs. Licensed commercial broadcasters are not obligated to carry political advertisements, but if they choose to do so are BRATISLAVA 00000064 002.3 OF 003 subject to the same maximum limits of thirty minutes per party and ten hours total. Election campaigns and advertising can continue through election day; however, poll results must not be published after the polls open. Parties have no limits on how much they can spend on their campaigns. The parties -------------- Party acronyms: SMER-SD -- Robert Fico's 'Direction' SDKU-DS -- Mikulas Dzurinda's Democratic and Christian Union HZDS-LS -- Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a Democratic Slovakia KDH -- Jan Figel's Christian Democratic Movement SNS -- Jan Slota's Slovak National Party SMK -- Pal Csaky's Hungarian Coalition Party MOST-HID -- Bela Bugar's 'Bridge' SaS -- Richard Sulik's Freedom and Solidarity Party ¶7. (SBU) Recent opinion polls indicate that these eight parties will likely gain the five percent of valid votes cast necessary to enter parliament. Smer leads the polls with nearly 40 percent support. The main opposition party, SKDU, usually comes second in polls with 10-15 percent support while the other parties poll at between 4 and 10 percent. The next governing coalition is most likely, therefore, to include Smer and two partners. The post-election day "mathematics" of coalition formation will be at least as important as the vote itself. There are several possible post-election scenarios, but almost anything is possible and Smer has so far refused to rule out cooperation with any party. ¶8. (SBU) Before the current government of Smer, SNS, and HzDS was formed in 2006, we described such a coalition as the "nightmare scenario." Smer, by contrast, has seemed fairly comfortable with the arrangement despite occasional grumbling from party insiders about both partners. HZDS is viewed as more difficult, but the more pliant SNS appears to have become a greater liability. Corruption scandals and the nasty, anti-Hungarian rhetoric of its party leaders, particularly Chairman Jan Slota, have caused PM Fico international embarrassment best demonstrated by a three-year suspension of full membership rights in the Party of European Socialists (PES) grouping. We have heard that Smer had to promise not to form a new coalition with SNS in order to gain full membership in PES last year. If other suitable partners cannot be found, however, Fico would likely turn to HZDS and SNS again, and both would jump at the chance. ¶9. (SBU) Although various parties have said publicly that they would rule out cooperation with one or another of their competitors, the only coalition that we find inconceivable would be one that includes SNS and either of the two ethnic Hungarian parties, SMK or Most-Hid. The new center-right party of businessman Richard Sulik has said it would not go into BRATISLAVA 00000064 003.3 OF 003 coalition with Smer since the imbalance of power would make SaS a mere puppet. Sulik is known to crave the position of Finance Minister, however, and in a coalition that included another center-right party we believe he would make a deal. EDDINS