SLOVAK CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATOR ASSESSES PATH FORWARD FROM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000023 SIPDIS OES FOR D. NELSON, K. LARSEN, AND R. KASTENBERG EUR/CE FOR J. MOORE AND M. LIBBY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV KGHG ENRG PGOV LO SUBJECT: SLOVAK CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATOR ASSESSES PATH FORWARD FROM COPENHAGEN REF: BRATISLAVA 13 BRATISLAVA 00000023 001.3 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Fresh off a trip to the EU Environment Ministers meeting in Seville this past weekend, Slovakia's lead Climate Change negotiator Helena Princova told us that her EU counterparts are frustrated by the results of Copenhagen and will seek to refocus efforts to ensure continued progress in ¶2010. Princova told us that much informal discussion in Seville centered around how the EU can adjust its strategy to reclaim a leadership role in future negotiations. Princova reiterated Slovakia's support for the Copenhagen Accord and spoke at length about her perception of the path forward. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) As reported reftel, Slovakia fully intends to both associate itself with the Copenhagen Accord and inscribe mitigation actions. Princova told us that as of January 19, the EU was still uncertain whether to do so collectively or as individual countries--she said a split has developed because some eastern European countries, notably Poland, are concerned about burden sharing and would like the ability to submit their mitigation actions independently. Princova told us that she expects the EU will ultimately act as a unit and submit an emissions reduction target of 20% from 1990 levels. If it turns out that EU countries associate separately, Princova told us that Slovakia would inscribe the same 20% reduction on its own. She told us that Spain is developing a political statement on behalf of the EU, but that it might not be completed until after the January 31 deadline for association with the Accord. ¶3. (SBU) Princova told us that the biggest surprise at Copenhagen for her and many EU colleagues was the "increased self-confidence" of China, India and Brazil. She described the Seville meeting over the past weekend as somewhat introspective, as negotiators struggled to take stock of the new geopolitical reality and tried to determine which "new alliances need to be built." Princova asked our impression of Russia's negotiating strategy, saying that no one she has spoken with can identify what Russia's aims are and commenting that the EU is very interested in learning more. ¶4. (SBU) Further reflecting on Copenhagen, Princova told us that it was a major mistake to enter such a high-level conference without an agreed-to text. She added that there was much discussion in Seville of organizing a "Friends of the Accord" meeting to be held in the spring, in an effort to make further progress before the next scheduled meetings take place in Bonn this summer. Princova said that several in Seville were advocating for a "more concentrated negotiation," in an effort to avoid the paralysis that can take place when so many negotiating partners are at the table. She told us that she thought a smaller negotiating body would be acceptable to the EU, but she quickly added that this would be an impossibility due to Chinese objections. She explained that the Chinese Ambassador to Slovakia told her shortly before Copenhagen that any narrowing of negotiating partners would be "completely unacceptable" to China. ¶5. (SBU) Looking forward, Princova told us that it will be crucial to overcome the lack of trust that she says pervaded the Copenhagen conference. She identified developmental aid as the best way to accomplish this, saying that the EU and USG should prioritize efforts to design the mechanism for such aid and get it underway by the end of the year. Princova also mentioned that some of her EU colleagues were advocating for making such assistance conditional on association with the Copenhagen Accord, with the hope that such conditionality might make some countries think twice before acting to derail future negotiations (COMMENT: She was referring here to the efforts of countries such as Venezuela and Sudan that resulted in the COP only "taking note" of the Accord. END COMMENT.) COMMENT ¶6. (SBU) While Slovakia has never been particularly vocal in the EU's internal climate change deliberations, it has always been quick to support calls for greater action--for example, Slovakia was prepared to endorse a 30% reduction level for EU states at Copenhagen, although this seems to have since been taken off the table. The Slovak government's support for strong action stems more from perceived economic interest than actual concern about the threat of climate change. Princova told us in December that Slovak emissions are currently 35% below 1990 levels, and she thinks that Slovakia would have little trouble meeting a 30% target for 2020--something that is definitely not the case for many of the other EU countries with which Slovak industry BRATISLAVA 00000023 002.3 OF 002 competes. EDDINS