BRAZIL: AMBASSADOR'S MEETINGS WITH MRE UNDER SECRETARIES FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRASILIA 000059 SIPDIS AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PASS TO AMCONSUL RECIFE E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/19 TAGS: PREL KNNP IR CH BR SUBJECT: BRAZIL: AMBASSADOR'S MEETINGS WITH MRE UNDER SECRETARIES FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS REF: STATE 12108 CLASSIFIED BY: Thomas A. Shannon, Ambassador, State, Embassy Brasilia; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary. In separate meetings with Ambassador Shannon February 9, MRE Under Secretaries for Political Affairs I Vera Machado and Political Affairs II Roberto Jaguaribe both focused on concerns that Iranian domestic issues would make a solution to the nuclear issues difficult to achieve. Machado, who covers relations with the United States, among other issues, said the GOB is looking forward to a visit by Secretary Clinton and focused the discussion on South America regional issues. Jaguaribe, who is responsible for East, Central, and South Asia and Iran, spoke at length about Brazil's views on Iran, relations with China, and the upcoming BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) summit in Brasilia. End summary. Iran and Nuclear Issues ¶2. (C) Consistent with his message in previous engagements, Jaguaribe offered broad praise for President Obama's efforts to "interface with Iran in a more comprehensive way," and emphasized that Iran's eventual acceptance of the core P5+1 proposal is the only plausible solution to the crisis. Jaguaribe expressed doubts that Iran would accept the solution in its current political climate, and suggested that the strong anti-Iranian positions taken in the United States and the European Union have conditioned the Iranian government and people to think that any offer made by the United States cannot be acceptable. Jaguaribe called Iran's nuclear program an expression of national identity, a symbol galvanizing popular support for the regime. Likewise he viewed any sanctions as automatically strengthening the position of hard-line elements in the Iranian government. He strongly encouraged more engagement with Iran before considering sanctions in the UN. Jaguaribe said that third-party engagement - including Turkey, but "not necessarily Brazil" - would be a key to success given Iranian skepticism of the United States and Europe as primary messengers. He expressed interest in continuing discussion with U.S. officials concerning Iran. For her part, Machado, who also covers non-proliferation and UNSC issues, reiterated the GOB view that Iran has a right to peaceful nuclear power, but expressed concern about how the situation with Iran was developing. She suggested a "new path" was needed, but like Jaguaribe, she worried that multiple centers of power within Iran would make it difficult to find a way forward. Iran and Human Rights ¶3. (C) When pressed about human rights in Iran, Jaguaribe acknowledged a negative and worsening situation but also asked why we were singling out Iran when several of its neighbors are less democratic with worse human rights performance. The Ambassador laid out the concerns in reftel, including our objections to Iran's potential bid for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. Jaguaribe had no immediate response to the demarche points but emphasized that Brazil has registered its human rights concerns with Iran several times, particularly concerning treatment of the Baha'i. He added that Iran's increased use of paramilitaries in order to maintain order is a sign of the regime's weakness. Jaguaribe acknowledged the Brazilian's Embassy lack of capacity to assess popular support for the government but still spoke of Iran's government as essentially stable and capable of reaching and honoring agreements. Regional Stability ¶4. (C) Machado said the GOB would welcome a visit by Secretary Clinton and discussed a number of Brazil's neighbors with the Ambassador. She said that Brazil is watching the situation in Venezuela carefully, noting that Chavez faces a number of internal problems. She thought that there was a chance for improvement following the September 2010 legislative elections because there were a number of "lesser known" political figures who may emerge with more influence. Machado believed that the situation in Bolivia had stabilized but remained concerned about connections between the government and coca growers. She acknowledged the threat to the region of drug trafficking but identified the primary source of the problem as consumption in rich countries. Building with BRICs ¶5. (C) Recently returned from a trip to China in preparation for the April 15-16 BRIC summit in Brasilia, Jaguaribe spoke candidly about the difficulties in developing an agenda and an overall mission for BRIC. China, he felt, presented a particular challenge to Brazil given different perceptions by the Chinese about what a group like BRIC would mean. Jaguaribe emphasized that China is very cautious not to make BRIC look like a group opposing the interests of established powers and as a result works to make the agenda less than fully precise. China is also especially sensitive to concerns from developing nations that don't want BRIC to purport to speak as the voice for developing countries. The Under Secretary also spoke about the difficulty of organizing a group agenda under these circumstances, commenting, "This is a very heterogeneous group of countries with different goals, but the interest is there." China: The "Communist Dynasty" ¶6. (C) Jaguaribe joked that the Chinese government would one day be referred to as the "Communist Dynasty," and expressed minor exasperation about the difficulty of finding the right person in the government to talk with about major issues. Ambassador Shannon noted that China's capacity to engage successfully in South America has evolved rapidly. What began as a commercial and trade-based relationship is now gaining a political component. The Chinese, he noted, are constantly evaluating their performance and improving their game. He told Jaguaribe, "China will be a tough competitor, for the United States and Brazil." SHANNON