BRITISH FOREIGN OFFICE DEFENCE CHIEF DISCUSSES EUROPEAN SECURITY, NPT REVCON

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000194 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2035 TAG KCFE, PARM, PREL, NATO, NPT, CD, UK, GM SUBJECT: BRITISH FOREIGN OFFICE DEFENCE CHIEF DISCUSSES EUROPEAN SECURITY, NPT REVCON Classified By: Political M/C George Glass for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (S) Summary. On the margins of the Munich Security Conference, February 6, UK Foreign Office Director General for Defense and Intelligence Mariot Leslie told U/S Tauscher that the allies should negotiate with Russia a new follow-on agreement to the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty. Leslie also suggested that Egypt might abandon its controversial NPT Revcon Middle East resolution language if it were guaranteed a conference on the subject some time after the May 2010 Review Conference. To satisfy Moscow's desire for greater inclusion, this conference could be held in Russia. Leslie also noted that she was fighting pressure to abandon stalled FMCT discussions in the Conference on Disarmament and take up negotiations elsewhere. End Summary. -------------- Russia -------------- ¶2. (S) Briefing on her recent visit to Moscow, Leslie said Russian officials had cited their desire for missile defense provisions as the main stumbling block in signing the post-START agreement with the U.S. The open question, she said, was whether progressives in the Russian government could out-maneuver the military on this sticking point. Leslie also underscored her concerns about the proliferation of missile technology in the Middle East and stressed the need to turn the page on previous disputes with Russia over this issue. According to Leslie, Russian FM Lavrov had agreed with her. ¶3. (S) Leslie underscored her belief that the Russians had "lost out" during CFE and A/CFE negotiations and that the allies should be open to a re-negotiation with Moscow on the issue of conventional forces. However, she recognized that there would likely be strong opposition from flank states like Turkey and Norway -- particularly given the spill-over effects into the issue of sub-strategic nuclear weapons. Separately, Leslie said she had been surprised by the sudden release of the new Russian Defense Strategy. While in Moscow, she said Russian think tankers had discouraged her from placing too much importance on the strategy. Instead, Leslie was told to look at Russia's upcoming nuclear declaratory posture for better insights into top-level thinking. -------------- NPT Revcon and Egypt -------------- ¶4. (S) Leslie shared U/S Tauscher's view that presidential-level engagement could help move Egypt away from it's controversial Middle East resolution language and, thereby, avoid derailing the NPT Review Conference in May. However, she doubted whether engagement alone would be enough. Leslie stressed that Mubarak would also need a high-visibility deliverable to take back to his public -- though this deliverable would not necessarily require much substance. Specifically, she suggested that Egypt be supported in its long-held goal to have an international conference on the issue of nuclear security in the Middle East. Since Moscow wanted to be seen as a player in this issue, Leslie believed that holding such a conference in Russia could kill two birds with one stone. ¶5. (S) Leslie said she had discussed this idea with South African counterparts and had agreed with them that it could work. U/S Tauscher stressed the need for assurances that Egypt would stay in line during the NPT Review Conference. In response, Leslie shared South African views that Egypt would lose NAM support should Cairo be given support for a conference and later still prove intransigent at the Revcon. Moreover, Leslie suggested that Egypt might further be kept in check by scheduling the conference after the NPT Revcon. However, it would be important for other countries -- not the U.S. or UK -- to push this idea forward. As additional ways to move Egypt, Leslie suggested the possibility of a meeting between the Egyptian FM and foreign ministers from the NPT depositary states. She also raised the possibility of a special reporteur -- though Leslie recognized that the French BERLIN 00000194 002 OF 002 were opposed. -------------- Treaty Updates -------------- ¶6. (S) Leslie said that she was increasingly under pressure by British parliamentarians to cease stalled FMCT talks at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) and move negotiations to another venue. However, she continued to push back because the CD offered exposure to a broad range of nations -- including nuclear states -- and because of the simple lack of any alternative mechanism through which to discuss the issue. Leslie believed that, in the future, such a move might be necessary but that now was not the time. U/S Tauscher underscored complaints from Islamabad that the U.S.-India civilian nuclear agreement somehow short-changed Pakistan. For her part, Leslie stressed the need to get Indians and Pakistanis talking again -- even through back-channels. Moreover, she said that it might be necessary to validate Pakistani concerns, while still emphasizing to Islamabad that these concerns are misplaced. Nevertheless, we must make clear to Pakistani officials that they cannot hold FMCT negotiations hostage as a result. ¶7. (S) Leslie was thrilled to hear that the proposed Defense Trade Treaty between the U.S. and UK was again moving in Washington. Meanwhile, in Moscow, Leslie said she had worked to manage Russian expectations over U.S. ratification of the CTBT. Specifically, she underscored mid-term elections in the U.S. and the Obama Administration's packed agenda as reasons why USG ratification was unlikely this year. ¶8. (U) This cable was cleared with U/S Tauscher. Delawie